Vlad Jr. Makes History With Derby Win, however He’s Coming Up Quick Elsewhere

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wasn’t precisely the forgotten man on the 2023 Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park; this scribe was hardly alone in predicting he’d win. But the 24-year-old slugger didn’t put up an astronomical complete of dingers the best way hometown favourite Julio Rodríguez did within the first spherical (breaking Guerrero’s personal 2019 document of 40 homers, at that). Nor did he cruise into the finals by a lopsided rating the best way Randy Arozarena did in knocking off the top-seeded Luis Robert Jr. within the semifinals. Guerrero did begin his evening by steamrolling Mookie Betts, then narrowly eked out wins over each Rodríguez and Arozarena to take residence the championship that eluded him in 2019, when he was runner-up to Pete Alonso. In victory, he joined his father, who gained in 2007, as the primary father-son duo to win the Derby. Congrats to Vlad and Dad.

With Blue Jays supervisor John Schneider serving as his pitcher, Guerrero — considered one of simply three contestants who had participated in a earlier Derby, together with Alonso and Rodríguez — wanted till his fifth swing to get on the board, however as soon as he did, with a 453-footer, he discovered his groove. He beat Betts handily, 26–11, then walked off towards Rodríguez, needing only one homer in bonus time to win, 21–20. He hit 25 within the finals, a document for the shorter spherical (two minutes as a substitute of three), then needed to wait out Arozarena, who completed regulation with 20. Crucially, Arozarena solely had the usual 30 seconds of additional time as a result of he hadn’t gotten the space bonus, unlocked when a participant hit two homers with projected distances of not less than 440 ft — one thing Guerrero managed in all three rounds. Arozarena ran out of each gasoline and time as his closing fly balls fell brief; he completed with 23 homers to make Guerrero the champion, the second-youngest in historical past by a day (1993 winner Juan Gonzalez was youthful).

Guerrero will function a reserve for Tuesday evening’s All-Star Game after beginning at first base in every of the previous two seasons. Yandy Díaz was voted to begin for the AL, and it’s powerful to complain when he’s hitting .323/.408/.515 for a 165 wRC+, the best of any first baseman in both league by 10 factors (NL starter Freddie Freeman is second at 155) and the second-highest of any certified hitter behind solely Shohei Ohtani.

Diaz’s 165 wRC+ is harking back to the league-leading 166 Guerrero put up throughout his 2021 season. We’re now two years faraway from that breakout marketing campaign, when at age 22, Vladito made a run on the Triple Crown, falling brief however nonetheless hitting a powerful .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers and 6.3 WAR. His residence run complete led the league, as did his on-base proportion, a small comfort for ending “only” third in batting common; likewise, he led in complete bases and slugging proportion and was second in WAR, a reasonably good offset for ending “only” fifth in RBIs.

When you’re 22 years previous and the son of a Hall of Famer, a season like that sends expectations into the stratosphere, so it’s come as one thing of a disappointment that Guerrero’s follow-up seasons haven’t been as much as that normal. He hit .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers, a 132 wRC+, and a pair of.8 WAR final yr, and arrived on the All-Star break batting .274/.344/.443 with 13 homers, a 120 wRC+, and (gulp) 0.4 WAR this yr. A great — or not-so-good, really — a part of that decline in worth is Guerrero’s protection, which has gone downhill shortly. I’ll get to that beneath, however what everyone seems to be questioning is what’s occurred to his offense. In taking a look at his numbers, a number of issues stand out.

For one, regardless of the early-season indications on the contrary, Guerrero has gotten much less selective. In 2021, he chased simply 28.3% of pitches exterior the zone, however in every of the previous two seasons, he’s as much as 34.2%. As you possibly can see from these warmth maps, final yr it was particularly a matter of chasing excessive, and this yr, he’s chasing excessive and low as properly:

Guerrero doesn’t strike out a lot for an influence hitter; actually, his 15.6% fee is 0.2 factors decrease than in 2021 and 0.8 factors decrease than final yr. The downside is that his outcomes when chasing pitches exterior haven’t been pretty much as good as they as soon as have been. Here’s a take a look at his outcomes when chasing excessive pitches, these in Gameday zones 11 and 12:

The decline hasn’t been uniform, however his AVG and SLG are decrease than in 2021, although his exit velo and xSLG are literally larger. He’s swinging and lacking much more typically when he chases excessive, with each his whiff and swinging-strike charges in these areas a lot larger than in 2021. Including the pitches he’s chasing in zones 13 and 14, exterior and beneath the strike zone, his .130 batting common and .190 slugging proportion are down from 2021’s .171/.240 and final yr’s .148/.230.

While Guerrero is swinging and lacking extra at pitches exterior the zone, he’s offset that considerably by making extra contact within the zone; this yr’s 86.4% fee is down 1.4 factors from final yr however up 2.4 factors relative to 2021. He’s hitting the ball extremely onerous but additionally on the bottom extra typically than in 2021:

Guerrero is scalding the ball, rating sixth within the majors in common exit velocity and seventh in hard-hit fee and touchdown within the 88th percentile in barrel fee. He’s much more spectacular when it comes to Best Speed (the typical exit velo of his prime 50% of batted ball occasions, a extra helpful measure than the easier-to-find common EV as a result of it filters out the noise), rating third within the majors, and but he’s even beneath each 2021 and ’22 in that metric.

For as onerous as Guerrero is hitting the ball, he’s simply not getting the outcomes that ought to accompany it:

Guerrero’s xBA is identical because it was two years in the past, solely this time he’s 33 factors brief as a substitute of 4 factors over. His SLG is 37 factors beneath final yr, however his xSLG is 88 factors larger, and that sample carries over to his wOBA (9 factors beneath final yr) and xwOBA (49 factors larger). His SLG-xSLG differential is the majors’ second-largest, and his wOBA-xwOBA differential is the fourth-largest. Here’s the rating by the previous class:

I highlighted the three different gamers with wOBA-xwOBA differentials as low or decrease than Guerrero’s; you possibly can see their rankings by sorting the desk. Beyond them, the remaining didn’t make the reduce; see right here as a substitute.

Digging a little bit deeper, it’s Guerrero’s outcomes on fly balls which can be significantly out of whack:

Though his fly balls are being hit as onerous, they’re at a steeper angle than earlier than, however even the shorter carry isn’t sufficient to elucidate his shortfalls of 527 factors of slugging proportion and 272 factors of wOBA. As it seems, these are the most important shortfalls on fly balls of any participant in the whole Statcast period, from 2015 onward! He’s bought a 77-point “lead” in slugging differential:

As an apart, how scary is it that for as nice as Acuña’s season is, he’s right here as properly? So are Swanson and Grisham from this season, and if I’d expanded the desk, Guerrero’s teammate Matt Chapman could be proven at sixteenth, with a -319-point hole (.851 SLG, 1.170 xSLG). Guerrero moreover has a 34-point “lead” over Cruz in wOBA differential, with Swanson third and Acuña fourth, and all people else by eighth current within the desk above.

During the Statcast broadcast of the Derby on ESPN2 (that includes Jessica Mendoza and FanGraphs alum Mike Petriello), somebody famous that Guerrero didn’t hit his first homer on the Rogers Centre this yr till June 23 and has hit simply three of his 13 homers there, all coming inside a seven-day span. Digging into the info, his slugging differentials for residence and away are related in scale, however the underlying numbers are method aside:

What is happening with that trade fee? Guerrero is falling over 500 factors brief within the slugging division on each splits, however the place he’s slugging solely .406 on his Canadian fly balls, he’s at .906 on his American ones. Even on condition that he’s not hitting his fly balls as onerous at residence as on the street, producing a 15-foot distinction in distance, that also doesn’t account for a way lopsided his break up is.

The subject could also be his Guerrero’s pull-rate splits. This yr he’s pulling 36.1% of his batted balls at residence and 43.3% on the street, in comparison with 43.6% at residence and 35.6% on the street final yr and 39.7% at residence and 40.2% on the street in 2021. Note that these are Sports Info Solution classifications; Statcast’s pull percentages differ, typically with larger heart charges, which makes the single-season pull samples sufficiently small that I don’t suppose they imply a lot after we begin taking a look at precise and anticipated numbers. For illustrative functions, I’ll be aware that by way of Baseball Savant, Guerrero has slugged .667 on six pulled flies at residence, in comparison with a 1.439 xSLG; on 15 such balls final yr and 18 the yr earlier than, he slugged over 2.000, so it’s honest to say that he does appear to be dropping out not pulling the ball as constantly at residence.

While the Rogers Centre did endure renovations this previous offseason, to my information all of these pertained to the fan expertise, not the sphere of play. The fence distances and heights stayed the identical. Update: Contrary to the assertion I simply crossed out, the Blue Jays did alter the fence distances and heights, although they made the announcement at a distinct time than that of the ballpark’s inside. Score that E-6 on my half [looks at webbing of glove, shakes head sheepishly]. Here’s what the adjustments seem like:

Here are the brand new Rogers Centre dimensions LCF now 368 (was 375) with a wall that is larger. RCF now 359 (was 375) with a wall that is a lot larger. pic.twitter.com/dgM7DbkZE2

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) January 27, 2023

To either side, the Blue Jays have shortened distances whereas elevating fence heights, although it’s not symmetrical. The distances adjustments are much less excessive on the left facet, Guerrero’s pull facet, and likewise with the peak adjustments, however these could also be canceled out by his much less pull-happiness this yr. In brief, I’m undecided this is sufficient to clarify what’s happening with Guerrero’s fly balls at residence, significantly on condition that the nearer fences have been extra more likely to improve offense. But when coupled with the stadium’s capability being lowered by about 7%, right down to 41,500, it’s attainable the renovations had an impression on air circulation as properly. It does appear price noting that the typical distance of hard-hit fly balls (95 mph or larger) has decreased from 363 ft to 357, that whereas the MLB-wide common has elevated by one foot, from 365 to 366. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ general SLG-xSLG differential of -.015 (.415 SLG, .430 xSLG) is tied for the sixth-lowest within the majors, however the venue’s -.028 hole on fly balls (.836 SLG, .861 xSLG) is in the midst of the pack, rating because the Thirteenth-lowest of the 30 ballparks.

For no matter cause, Guerrero isn’t hitting the ball as onerous at residence, and he’s getting the shaft at an historic degree on his fly balls each residence and away, which can or could not have one thing to do with the adjustments. Other than the pull splits, I can’t establish any particular points as to why that might be, however Still, I do suppose it’s honest to determine that some constructive regression might be in retailer.

As famous, one different factor that stands out about Guerrero is his defensive decline. Recall that in 2021, he moved from third base to grow to be a full-timer at first base, the place he was a really nice shock. Now, he’s all of the sudden grow to be DH-caliber:

Yikes. To the fitting of the divider, I’ve damaged out Guererro’s Outs Above Average splits, and as you possibly can see, he’s been particularly poor; he’s the majors’ worst first baseman at coming in and at shifting to his proper, towards third base. Whether he’s missing in focus, carrying his offensive shortcomings (reminiscent of they’re) into the sphere, or missing in mobility relative to 2 years in the past, he has to scrub that up. Over the course of a full season, the distinction between good Vlad and dangerous Vlad within the subject quantities to greater than a win, and for a staff that’s within the thick of the AL Wild Card race — at 50–41, the Jays are tied for the second spot however only a sport forward of the Yankees (49–42) and two video games forward of the Red Sox (48–43) — each win counts. Still, I’d anticipate that we’ll see a extra productive Guerrero on the plate within the second half, and whereas some will credit score his Derby win at having jump-started his season, you and I’ll know higher.