Wait, Zack Littell is a Starter Now?!

How on the planet are you able to clarify a crew just like the Rays? There are a number of unusual and seemingly magical issues happening there, however let’s give attention to simply their starters. They churn out top-of-the-line dudes like nobody’s enterprise. Shane McClanahan is nasty. Tyler Glasnow seems to be unhittable at occasions. Jeffrey Springs went from zero to hero and stayed there. Zach Eflin is immediately dominant. They can’t appear to take a step with out tripping over a terrific starter.

They’re additionally all the time hungry for extra. Whether it’s unhealthy luck, adversarial choice, or one thing about their efficiency coaching strategies, the Rays stack up pitching accidents like few groups in baseball historical past. Of that group I named up above, solely Eflin hasn’t missed vital time in 2023, and each McClanahan and Springs are out for the remainder of the yr. The Rays not solely have all these starters, however additionally they traded for Aaron Civale on the deadline, and so they’re nonetheless brief on arms.

They did what anybody would do: level at a random reliever within the bullpen and inform him he’s now a wonderful starter. Wait, that’s not what anybody else would do? Only the Rays try this? You’re proper, not less than a bit bit; certainly you recall the Drew Rasmussen experiment from 2021. That one was an enormous hit till Rasmussen tore his UCL this yr.

But that’s not fairly the identical as turning Zack Littell right into a starter. Rasmussen was a starter whom the Brewers had transformed to a reliever because of main league necessity in 2020, and he switched again to beginning not lengthy after becoming a member of the Rays in ‘21. Littell has been a reliever for a while now. He made two starts for the Twins in 2018, then opened for the Giants twice in 2021, but other than that, he’s been a one–to-two-inning man since making the majors.

What are the important thing variations between starters and relievers? I’m not speaking about their workload; that’s fairly apparent. I’m speaking in regards to the traits that make you be one or the opposite. The issues I consider are pitch variety and stamina, and I’d wager that no matter you picked, they had been some variation on these phrases. Can you retain hitters off steadiness even once they get to see you once more? Can you beat opposite-handed hitters? Can you retain throwing aggressive pitches even after you’ve been on the market toiling for an hour or extra?

That’s not a light-weight set of necessities. Those issues are onerous. Plenty of pitchers have a pleasant fastball, and a number of them can be taught a slider that goes with it, which is a part of the explanation sliders are getting so well-liked nowadays. Littell matches that mould. He has a superbly serviceable fastball — a backspinning four-seamer that he makes use of to dot the highest of the strike zone and steal greater than the occasional strike on the corners. He additionally throws a bullet slider that performs properly off of his fastball. You’ve seen these dudes earlier than, frequenting the seventh and eighth innings of your native main league ball membership.

I’ve a principle {that a} good fastball, one {that a} pitcher can each command and sometimes throw previous hitters, is a key a part of discovering a reliever who can begin. Littell, and Rasmussen earlier than him, each refill the zone with their fastball once they’re behind within the depend. They have sufficient motion to keep away from horrible harm, too. Walks are so much much less acceptable amongst starters than relievers due to the size; walks simply create much more stress, each on the starter and on the bullpen who will inevitably get stretched behind a short begin. Two walks an inning for 2 innings would possibly finish a starter’s day fairly shortly and depart the crew scrambling to cowl the shortfall. It’s a lot much less of an enormous deal in case your reliever will get wild and walks two guys, ending solely a 3rd of an inning as a substitute of his deliberate one.

Littell has that, however he’s lacking a pitch past that standard-issue fastball/slider mixture. Or not less than, he was. In 2021, he began dabbling with a splitter. By 2022, he was throwing it 10% of the time. This yr, that quantity has doubled to twenty%. He’s additionally began mixing in a sweeping slider with a radically completely different motion profile. It’s nonetheless a piece in progress — he’s solely thrown 32 of them in video games, in order that’s hardly a shock — but it surely’s one other look to present hitters as he lays siege to lineups as a substitute of making an attempt to energy by means of them in a single burst.

The splitter and sweeper have a complementary impact. Littell’s fastball and sharp slider are each fairly good in opposition to lefties and righties alike. He’s deploying the splitter virtually completely in opposition to lefties nowadays, and the sweeper virtually completely in opposition to righties. That makes him a three-pitch pitcher no matter who he’s dealing with:

There’s one other profit to having 4 pitches. When certainly one of his pitches isn’t as much as snuff in a given day, he can lower its utilization. When an opposing hitter is a dead-red fastball hitter or resistant to chasing splitters, no worries — scrap it. That doesn’t work so properly if you’re solely throwing two choices.

It would possibly appear to be I’m belaboring this level an excessive amount of. Spencer Strider and Bryce Miller are succeeding within the majors with two and one pitches respectively, aren’t they? I imply, certain. They even have two of the very best fastballs in baseball, interval. Unicorns exist; that doesn’t imply that each horse can do no matter it needs to. I don’t assume we are able to be taught so much about Littell’s possibilities as a starter by watching Strider channel Jacob deGrom for video games at a time.

Okay, so we’ve received that time lined. Littell’s repertoire expanded sufficient that he now seems to be like a starter from that perspective. It’s neat that the Rays appear to be so good at educating pitchers to throw sweepers, and in addition at altering their pitch combine to finest make the most of their explicit abilities, however they aren’t doing this with each reliever. Littell’s ready-made mixture of two platoon-neutral pitches, good fastball command, and one other legit secondary was an ideal match for what they’re in search of.

That brings us to the second query: can he do it for a number of innings at a time? I’ll admit that it is a tougher one to research from the skin. We don’t know the way pitchers really feel once they come off the mound after 23 pitches, or 33 pitches, or after sitting within the dugout between innings 4 occasions. The finest I can do is give you some form of proxy, so I attempted a easy one to see if there’s something apparent about Littell that made him a candidate.

I checked out each pitch thrown by a reliever in 2022. Then, I tossed out just about all of them. I solely wished two numbers: the typical fastball velocity for fastballs thrown between pitches 6–10 of an outing, and the typical fastball velocity between pitches 21–30. In previous analysis, I’ve discovered that the primary few pitches of any given look are often thrown beneath a pitcher’s most velocity. That is smart to me, but it surely additionally makes trying on the first ten pitches much less helpful diagnostically.

In essence, what I’m in search of is guys who’re already laboring by the point they get into their second inning (or first annoying inning) of labor. Those pitchers are in all probability ill-suited to make the transition from relieving to beginning; the pains of it are more likely to damage their stuff an excessive amount of. Is this an ideal measure? Most undoubtedly not; I simply can’t consider a greater one which I may simply pull from information.

Bad information, although: Littell failed by this standards! He misplaced roughly three-quarters of a tick as the sport wore on, triple the typical misplaced by relievers final yr. By my very own take a look at, he fails. Clearly, this isn’t one thing the Rays are taking a look at in relation to whether or not a reliever can begin. In truth, it may not even matter in any respect. Littell is within the backside 5 p.c of relievers in relation to misplaced velocity, in truth. By this metric, he’s a very unhealthy candidate for this conversion.

It’s not fairly so simple as that. With the foreknowledge that he’s beginning, Littell has flattened out his velocity considerably. He’s shedding solely round a 3rd of a mile per hour as his begins put on on, again to roughly common. He hasn’t misplaced a ton of velocity, both; he’s averaged 94.2 mph on his four-seamer as a reliever and 93.8 as a starter.

If the Rays are nervous about extending him too far, they aren’t precisely exhibiting it. He doesn’t have a tough cease at 5 innings or at 18 batters confronted. He threw 82 pitches on July 30, then got here again with 74 on common relaxation. Now, their belief hasn’t been rewarded, precisely: batters are hitting .429/.500/.571 in opposition to him the third time by means of. But it’s solely eight batters, and presumably if he’s this unhealthy, they’ll modify to that.

We’re 1,500 phrases into this text, and I nonetheless haven’t advised you whether or not I feel transferring Littell to the rotation is smart. To be sincere, I don’t know. It’s wild to me. I nonetheless don’t fairly perceive the way it works. I nonetheless don’t fairly consider it does work. I can’t determine why Littell is the suitable man to transform as a substitute of, say, Jalen Beeks or Shawn Armstrong. The commendable fastball and pitch combine are certainly part of it, however the Rays taught him a type of pitches this yr.

All I do know for certain is that I’m intrigued. I’m actually excited to observe Littell’s begin right now. If he turns right into a middle-of-the-rotation arm, or perhaps a back-of-the-rotation arm, that’s an enormous coup for Tampa Bay. It’s additionally an enormous coup for Littell; back-end starters make much more cash than center relievers. Heck, Littell himself bounced from the Rangers to the Red Sox to the Rays this yr alone due to waivers and trades for money. Become even a below-average starter, and issues look way more secure and way more profitable.

So yeah, tune in with me! I nonetheless principally assume it will all crumble. I can’t fairly wrap my head round it. He wasn’t even a dominant reliever. The Rays can’t preserve getting away with this! And but they do, on the whole, so they may on this case notably. What else can we do however wait and see the outcomes?