Wander Franco Is Making the Leap

Let’s begin this text with a daring declare: Wander Franco’s first two seasons within the majors had been a disappointment. That’s a startling assertion, even when it may not appear that means at first. Franco hit .282/.337/.439, good for a 121 wRC+, whereas taking part in league common protection at shortstop; he was 20 years previous for the primary of these seasons. He performed at a 4.3 WAR per 600 PA clip, which the FanGraphs glossary helpfully notes is an All-Star degree. That’s all true. For the perfect prospect of the previous decade, although, it nonetheless seems like a letdown.

The actual factor that has betrayed Franco is taking part in time. First for nebulous service time causes, then on account of damage, his first two seasons within the majors had been each as transient as they had been scintillating. He appeared in 70 video games in 2021 and 83 in 2022. His counting stats weren’t precisely imposing: 13 homers, 10 steals, and a mere 72 RBI when you’re taking part in fantasy baseball. I acknowledge that contemplating that efficiency a disappointment is grading on a curve, however if you’re pretty much as good and hyped as Franco is, that comes with the territory.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way in which, it’s time for the excellent news: that notion is as stale because the sourdough I purchased final Wednesday and didn’t end (hey, there’s an excellent bagel store close by, and I’m solely human). Franco isn’t a younger up-and-comer this 12 months. He’s a bona fide star, top-of-the-line hitters in baseball to date and the perfect participant on the perfect staff. It’s solely a matter of time earlier than your marginally-baseball-following mates begin asking you when you’ve heard about this Wander man. So permit me to current a present to you as a baseball fan who needs to sound sensible to their mates, a information to why Franco is among the finest gamers in baseball and what he modified to get there.

First issues first: your buddy goes to need to learn about Franco’s hitting. Defense is nice and all, however offense sells tickets. Franco’s otherworldly prospect profile was based mostly on his jaw-dropping numbers, which had been compiled at ranges he was far too younger for. He by no means hit for foolish residence run energy, however he did all the pieces else. Think peak Nap Lajoie – or, because you virtually assuredly haven’t any psychological assemble for what Nap Lajoie’s stats seem like, assume Jose Altuve with higher plate self-discipline.

More particularly, Franco combines stable pitch recognition with glorious bat-to-ball abilities. Excellent would possibly undersell it, actually. When he swings at a pitch within the strike zone, he makes contact with it 93% of the time. That’s rarefied air; we’re speaking Mookie Betts, José Ramírez, Alex Bregman, and Luis Arraez.

I listed Arraez simply because he’s buzzy proper now, however the different three share one thing with this 12 months’s iteration of Franco. They make stable contact incessantly. There’s a pure tradeoff between frequency and high quality; when you’re attending to all the pieces, you’re typically not attending to it with authority. Franco, just like the Betts/Ramírez/Bregman trio, is an exception. Or at the very least, he’s now. In his first two main league seasons, he swung too incessantly at pitches he couldn’t do a lot with. He made contact with them, as a result of that’s his factor, however practically 30% of his batted balls had been hit beneath 80 mph — mishits, in different phrases.

This 12 months, he’s beginning to make the change that these three hitters needed to make to marry their phenomenal contact with good energy: he’s changing into extra selective about which pitches to swing at. Not all the pieces within the strike zone is an efficient pitch to drive. Consider the inhabitants of pitches thrown within the strike zone when a batter has fewer than two strikes. Some of these pitches might be good ones to swing at, however not all might be. You can’t measure “good” plate self-discipline by asking if batters swung in any respect of them; loads of the time, it’s higher to take a pitch in a tricky location and dwell to struggle one other day, significantly when you have the form of contact abilities that make an eventual strikeout unlikely.

In his profession earlier than this 12 months, Franco swung at 67% of in-zone pitches with fewer than two strikes. This 12 months, he’s right down to 51%. That’s an indication of excellent plate self-discipline, not unhealthy. When you might have a strike to spare and make loads of contact, try to be searching for loud contact, not only a pitch that’s inside the boundaries of the strike zone.

That passivity doesn’t work with two strikes, however Franco is aware of that, and so it hasn’t carried it over. Before 2023, he swung at 92% of pitches within the strike zone after reaching two strikes. So far this 12 months, he’s swinging at 92.3% of them. In different phrases, he’s making the kinds of swing selections that finest swimsuit his sport, excess of he did earlier than this season.

Now that we all know he’s looking pitches fairly than swinging indiscriminately, we are able to hone in on what he’s attempting to do: put the ball within the air with authority. His 0.74 GB/FB ratio is a profession low, and his groundball price is 12 share factors decrease than his earlier profession mark. You’d anticipate that to lower his pull price; batters overwhelmingly pull grounders, in spite of everything, which is why the shift labored nicely sufficient to get restricted. But Franco has elevated his pull price, as a result of he’s pulling the balls he hits within the air way more incessantly:

I’ll degree with you: it’s nonetheless early within the season. These numbers aren’t secure but. The magnitude of the adjustments make it clear to me, although, that that is one thing Franco is doing on function. He’s looking for harm, not simply contact. Another mind-set about it? With fewer than two strikes in 2021 and 2022, Franco hit 24% of his batted balls exhausting and within the air. This 12 months, that quantity has ballooned to 33%. Take an incredible contact hitter and exchange a few of their mushy contact with known as strikes, and also you would possibly get a change like Franco’s: extra manufacturing on contact paired with fewer swings.

This change reveals up all throughout Franco’s statistics this 12 months. He’s barreling the ball up extra incessantly (11.8% of the time in opposition to 4.7% earlier than 2023). He’s compiling extra further base hits, hitting 13 in 93 plate appearances to date, a 50% increased price than in his earlier main league profession. His hard-hit price is up. His anticipated slugging share based mostly on launch angle and exit velocity is up greater than 100 factors. His precise slugging share is up greater than 100 factors. To put it plainly, he handed in his slap hitter card in change for a doubles-and-dingers license.

The draw back of this transformation is extra strikeouts; even when you have Franco-esque bat management and pitch recognition, going to two-strike counts extra incessantly offers you extra possibilities to strike out. Indeed, Franco’s strikeout price has ticked up – all the way in which to a nonetheless spectacular 16.1%.

Here’s the factor, although: these strikeouts received’t final. Franco is displaying completely beautiful self-discipline with two strikes. When pitchers throw within the zone, he swings 92.3% of the time, as we talked about up above. That’s the identical price as in his profession earlier than 2023, and tremendously aggressive general. You’d assume that aggression would possibly result in an extreme variety of chases, however you in all probability weren’t contemplating that Franco is within the course of of constructing the leap to superstardom.

Think of it this fashion: throughout the majors, batters swing at 88% of two-strike pitches within the strike zone. In different phrases, Franco swings extra usually than common, which is an excellent factor with two strikes. On pitches exterior of the strike zone, the league as an entire swings 39% of the time. That’s comprehensible; when you’re in most safety mode, you’re extra prone to chase. Franco chased out-of-zone pitches 42% of the time with two strikes in 2021 and 2022; he was barely extra aggressive each out and in of the zone, which is smart given his bat-to-ball abilities.

This 12 months, although, he’s solely swinging 31.5% of the time. He’s chasing far much less usually. You can’t throw one by him within the zone with two strikes. Sure, he’ll strike out extra by passing on pitches within the strike zone extra incessantly and attending to two-strike counts, however make no mistake, he’s nonetheless top-of-the-line within the enterprise at avoiding strikeouts. The finest solution to get him is likely to be with a bit exterior help:

These adjustments are price recapping. He’s searching for pitches to drive earlier than he reaches two strikes, and driving them when he will get them. When he does get to 2 strikes, he’s phenomenally aggressive within the strike zone and makes contact at an elite clip. If you permit the zone, he chases far much less incessantly than common. This is what a famous person hitter seems to be like. He may not have top-tier energy, however he makes up for it by by no means giving freely at-bats and by tapping into all the pieces he has incessantly.

It’s exhausting to identify a breakout in actual time. They’re far simpler to see looking back; early-season statistics fly round, and even unhealthy hitters publish good begins. But I’m snug saying this isn’t a string of excellent luck. This is among the most gifted gamers in baseball beginning to put all of it collectively. There merely aren’t many hitters able to doing what Franco is doing.

I don’t anticipate this begin to fade. There’s nothing fluky right here, no purple flags that scream “regression.” It took Bregman two seasons to seek out his footing within the majors. It took Betts roughly the identical period of time, and it was 4 seasons earlier than he went incandescent in 2018. Ramírez posted a 78 wRC+ in his first 635 plate appearances throughout three seasons. The superstars who share Franco’s talent set haven’t hit at all times hit the bottom working, however that hasn’t made their long-term trajectory any much less spectacular.

The largest query round Franco, in my eyes, is whether or not he can play a full season. The solely means he’ll be capable of show that’s by doing it. Short of that, I feel he checks each field. After a tough begin to his profession defensively, he seems to be solidly common on the market, although he’s additionally able to delivering spotlight reel materials:

Umm, Wander… WUT IN THE WORLD WAS THAT ? pic.twitter.com/D3KxYLzD8a

— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) April 25, 2023

He’s been caught stealing thrice already, however not on any egregiously unhealthy makes an attempt, simply shut calls that come from pushing the envelope. This is what an incredible participant taking part in nicely seems to be like – no fluky numbers, no glass cannon strategy simply ready for pitchers to assault it, simply good baseball.

This time subsequent 12 months, I don’t assume Franco goes to be a recent new face. He’s going to be one of many sport’s established stars, largely held again by the truth that he doesn’t play in a giant market in a coastal metropolis (high quality, in an ocean-coastal metropolis, if we’re being literal). This is your likelihood to get in now – after he’s already made the leap to stardom however earlier than anybody has seen. Change your psychological heuristic of Franco, and thank me later.