We’re in for One Heck of a Second Half

Time is flying. It looks as if solely weeks in the past that Shohei Ohtani struck out Mike Trout with a picture-perfect sweeper to complete off the World Baseball Classic, the Rays began the season with a franchise-record 13-game successful streak, and the Pirates shocked the baseball world with a 20-9 April. But no – the calendar turns to July this weekend, these Rays simply performed their 81st sport on Sunday, changing into the primary group to succeed in the midway level, and Pittsburgh has fallen into fourth place within the NL Central. The days are getting shorter, now, and so is the remaining calendar – by the top of the week, most groups can have extra common season baseball behind them than forward of them.

If that’s the unhealthy information, right here’s the excellent news: We’re poised for an thrilling run over these subsequent three months. With July across the nook, there are 23 groups inside six video games of a postseason spot, and 19 inside 4. No division lead is larger than 6.5 video games. According to our playoff odds, 21 of the 30 golf equipment – a full 70% – have between a ten% and 90% likelihood of ending up within the playoffs. At this level within the baseball calendar final yr, simply 12 groups fell in that vary:

After play on July 3, 2022, when groups had averaged the identical variety of video games – simply over 79 – as they’ve now, the Yankees and Astros had division leads of greater than 13 video games, making them digital locks to make the playoffs. The Dodgers, who led the National League with a .628 successful share, and the Mets and Braves, who have been battling it out within the NL East, all had higher than 90% odds, as did the Blue Jays. As of Tuesday, solely the Rays and Braves, who lead their respective circuits in wins, have eclipsed 90% – each are north of 98%. The Dodgers and Rangers are over 80%, and Arizona sits at 75.9%, however not one of the 25 different groups have a 3-in-4 shot or higher:

Things could also be even murkier among the many backside tier of the postseason hopefuls. On July 3 final season, 12 groups, or 40% of the league, had lower than a 1-in-10 likelihood of extending their season into the playoffs. On Tuesday, simply seven groups match that invoice – the White Sox, Pirates, Tigers, Royals, A’s, Rockies and Nationals. Most everybody else goes to move into the second half of their schedule pondering they’ve at the least a shot to seize a Wild Card. By that measure, now we have about as a lot uncertainty left to kind out within the again half as we did when the season started – our Opening Day playoff odds additionally had seven groups shy of 10%. Only the Reds have performed themselves over that threshold, and solely the White Sox have performed themselves below it.

There are handful of groups within the 10-20% vary proper now, however I’d say the distinction between beneath 10% and 10-20% is a significant one. In that 10-20% bin are the Reds, who lead their division and who the projections could also be underrating; the Cubs, Mariners, and Red Sox, who’re a scorching week or two from a playoff spot (and who appear able to stringing a few scorching weeks collectively if issues fall the suitable method for a stretch); and the Mets and Cardinals, who, for as bleak as the primary half has been, are 8.5 and eight.0 video games out of a playoff spot, respectively, with sufficient expertise on their rosters to make a major second-half enchancment possible:

In phrases of the final word finish purpose, right now final yr, our playoff odds had simply 10 groups with a 2% shot at successful the World Series – with the eventual NL champion Phillies notably not amongst them – with about two-thirds odds that it might be the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Yankees, or Mets. This yr, although we give a couple of 47% likelihood that it’ll be any of the Braves, Rays, or Dodgers, half of the league has a greater than 2% likelihood.

I largely opposed playoff enlargement, and I nonetheless assume it has made the postseason match too large, however that doesn’t imply we will’t recognize what it does supply, which is that it could possibly preserve middling groups motivated to win by means of this level of the season and past. But a few of the particulars of this aggressive panorama are due extra to the quirks of division alignment – the identical quirks which have introduced us an AL East with 5 groups higher than any AL Central group. This season, these quirks imply that the Wild Card races are populated nearly solely by East and West groups in each leagues, however the Central races are tight sufficient that second- and third-place groups like Cleveland, Cincinnati, and the Cubs are nonetheless very a lot inside attain of the playoffs.

This isn’t factor for the overall equity of playoff qualification. We may simply find yourself in a state of affairs during which the primary Wild Card group out in both league has a greater file than their league’s Central division champion – proper now within the AL, Houston (42-37) and Toronto (43-37) can be neglected in favor of Minnesota (40-41). But it’s a nice factor in case you’re rooting for whole chaos within the second half. More groups within the hunt and fewer groups operating away with division titles means extra significant video games late into the summer time.

To put it one other method, with 21 groups left with less-than-surefire playoff odds come what may, a 15-game day on the schedule ought to embrace on common between 13 and 14 video games that includes at the least one in every of these groups. With solely 12 groups in that no-man’s land, as was the case final yr, a 15-game schedule would come with on common 9 or 10 video games with at the least one in every of these contenders. That’s about 4 extra video games with playoff implications each day for followers.

As a lot as this has to do with further Wild Cards and quirky division alignments, it looks as if a few of the credit score is owed to the shifting sands of the league, as effectively. This yr, we’ve seen the Orioles, Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Angels and now Reds emerge as playoff hopefuls – or secure bets, because the case could also be – a lot of whom appear poised to stay round for years to return. It’s a powerful inflow of groups trending upwards, and shortly – whereas the Orioles’ resurgence began early sufficient final yr for the group to complete with 83 wins, the opposite 5 golf equipment averaged simply 69.2 wins in 2022 and are projected to enhance by a tremendous common of 17.1 wins this season:

On the flip aspect, most of 2022’s prime canines haven’t precisely ceded their spots – the Braves, Rays, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees and Blue Jays aren’t fairly prepared to present method. In the center of the pack, the Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox, Mariners, Padres, Twins and Guardians are hanging on whereas they attempt to discover a scorching stretch the way in which the Giants have. And whereas there’s little pleasure in St. Louis and Queens for the time being, given the expertise in these clubhouses, our playoff odds aren’t prepared to write down them off utterly, both.

The subsequent few weeks can be essential for a few of these groups on the cusp of competition. With such a aggressive subject heading into the month, we would quickly be closing in on an August 1 commerce deadline that would function far fewer sellers than patrons. Even the groups with snug playoff outlooks can be trying so as to add, so asking costs will possible be excessive, and it’ll be attention-grabbing to see which groups chunk at these excessive costs realizing their very own possibilities of a deep playoff run is likely to be diluted by the sector round them, to not point out an additional spherical of playoff randomness.

Last September, I wrote in regards to the lack of depth within the chase for playoff spots, a lot to the chagrin of anxious Mets and Braves followers enduring a nail-biting division race. So far this yr, it seems like we’re in higher form to ship quite a lot of playoff races into the deep summer time and early fall, with some contemporary faces in addition. There’s loads to kind out between now and October, and the finding out is the very best half. Here’s hoping this season stays messy so long as it could possibly.