What Do You Do With a First-Round Catcher?

One of my favourite picks in the primary spherical of this 12 months’s draft was the 14th general choice, when Virginia catcher Kyle Teel fell into Boston’s lap and the Red Sox wolfed him proper up, thanks very a lot. The New Jersey native has backstopped the Cavaliers to 2 journeys to Omaha in three seasons of faculty ball. He’s a winner, he’s a grinder, and WEEI callers are going to fall in love with this child inside about half-hour of his massive league debut. “This is the leadahship the Sawx have needed since Pedroia, Murph!” and so forth.

All that will be perilous sufficient to nationwide psychological hygiene by itself, however Teel can be actually good. He’s going to stay behind the plate. He’s additionally going to hit — perhaps not 20-homer energy, however a ton of doubles and line drives that rattle round within the nooks and crannies of Fenway Park’s distinctive outfield. I’m stunned he fell into the kids, however nice work by Boston for stopping the slide when he bought to them.

Teel was one among three catchers taken within the first spherical on Sunday. A pair of excessive schoolers, Blake Mitchell and Ralphy Velazquez, went eighth to Kansas City and twenty third to Cleveland, respectively. (Teel to the Royals as inheritor presumptive to Salvador Perez was a well-liked prediction within the days earlier than the draft, nevertheless it was to not be.) Both Mitchell and Velazquez (twentieth and forty fifth on the pre-draft Board) are bat-first prospects. Neither is a lock to remain behind the plate, however each can hit the ball a good distance once they make contact.

Teel represents a sensible best-case situation for a contemporary catcher. The bodily and defensive calls for have pressured this era of Mike Piazzas, Javy Lopezes, and Todd Hundleys to the corners. Today’s catchers are nimble and athletic. The offensive worth they supply is usually not of the middle-of-the-order selection. At the break, 34 catchers have at the very least 150 massive league plate appearances this season. Of these, one (Sean Murphy) is hitting .300, and other than Murphy, solely Francisco Alvarez is slugging .500. The upside for Mitchell and Velazquez is that they might break that paradigm, offering All-Star first baseman energy on the sport’s most demanding defensive place. Unfortunately, this isn’t a high-percentage proposition.

Since 2001, MLB groups have spent 68 first-round picks on catchers, together with supplemental picks earlier than the beginning of the second spherical. That makes the three first-round catchers from this class a median haul. College catchers are usually a fairly protected wager within the first spherical. I took the 68 catchers chosen within the first spherical and evaluated them on three profession hurdles: First, did they make the majors? Second, amongst draftees who made the massive leagues, did they accumulate at the very least 10 WAR of their careers at any place? (Surely the Cubs cared under no circumstances that Kyle Schwarber moved to the outfield virtually instantly after reaching the massive leagues.) Third, did they stick at catcher?

To reply the third query, I meant to outline “stuck at catcher” as “played a majority of his career big league games at the position.” Unfortunately, Joe Mauer got here in at 49.6%. But the person made six All-Star groups and gained an MVP behind the plate, for God’s sake; absolutely he counts as sticking at catcher. So I established “the Mauer Line,” or 49% of profession video games performed at catcher. And Mauer’s a tough case anyway; of the opposite 67 first-round catchers, solely Matt Thaiss made the majors and has performed between 30–50% of his profession video games behind the plate.

Already you may see the distinction in profession final result between highschool and faculty catchers, and the distinction is extra stark the upper within the draft a catcher goes. In order for a catcher to go within the high 15 picks, as Teel did, he must be extremely polished. That often means he’ll be fast to succeed in the majors.

It’s in all probability not a coincidence that of the 17 faculty catchers drafted within the high 15 picks since 2001, 15 got here from Power Five conferences. The two exceptions are Tony Sanchez, the no. 4 select of Boston College in 2004, a 12 months earlier than BC joined the ACC, and Max Pentecost, a Kennesaw State catcher who has one among my favourite names in baseball historical past and deeply problematic shoulder points.

Two of these top-15 faculty catchers are Teel and 2022 Mets first-rounder Kevin Parada, each of whom haven’t had an opportunity to make the majors but. Six of the opposite 15 have had 10-win careers. That doesn’t embrace Adley Rutschman, who’s at 7.5 WAR by means of 199 profession video games; I’d wager my backside greenback he will get to 10 in the end. There’s additionally 2021’s high choose, Henry Davis, who’s been within the majors a month, and Patrick Bailey, who’s a 1.9 WAR participant by means of his first 40 main league video games. I’m additionally nonetheless holding out hope for Shea Langeliers.

Some different top-15 faculty catchers: Schwarber, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, Mike Zunino, and Yasmani Grandal. The flooring for one of these participant, briefly, is moderately excessive.

So what’s the draw back?

You all know the next already, nevertheless it bears repeating. A place participant prospect has to do one among two issues with a purpose to grow to be a serious league contributor: Hit or play protection. Guys who do each grow to be All-Stars. Guys who do one very well can have 10-year careers. Guys who do neither go professional in one thing aside from sports.

Prospects who play up-the-middle positions have lots of room for error. If they decelerate as they placed on weight of their early 20s, they will transfer down the defensive spectrum if they will nonetheless hit. If the bat doesn’t come, they will nonetheless contribute with the glove. This is why, if I had been operating a group, I’d actually (virtually) by no means draft highschool first basemen: If the child doesn’t completely mash, he’s not a helpful participant anymore.

Catching prospects transfer down the defensive spectrum, too. The energetic chief in profession WAR amongst catchers drafted within the first-round is Josh Donaldson, who has spent all of 71 1/3 profession innings sporting the instruments of ignorance. Right behind him is Bryce Harper, who doesn’t seem on my record of 68 as a result of the Nationals by no means even bothered with the pretense that they had been going to let him catch. Joey Votto was a catcher; so had been Jayson Werth, Raúl Ibañez, and Justin Morneau.

A shortstop who can’t hack it at quick can transfer to second or third base, or heart area, and nonetheless grow to be a helpful two-way participant. But most catching prospects don’t have the foot pace to play one other up-the-middle place; gamers like Craig Biggio and Donaldson, who was a dynamic third baseman in his youth, are uncommon. For most catching prospects, a transfer to someplace out in entrance of the plate means a transfer to left area at finest. More generally, it means first base or DH, the place the offensive requirements will be crushing. We’re watching high A’s prospect Tyler Soderstrom undergo that ache now, because it turns into more and more probably that he performs first base within the majors and never catcher. Maybe he’ll make that transition in addition to Votto or Morneau did, nevertheless it’s an enormous hill to climb.

Among the few busts amongst top-15 faculty catchers are two of the few bat-first examples: Zack Collins, the tenth choose in 2016, and Jeff Clement, the no. 3 choose in 2005. These had been bat-first catchers who made the majors however barely caught as soon as there and offered little extra worth with the bat. Clement specifically is a well-known draft miss; after the Mariners took him, the subsequent 4 gamers off the board had been Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Ricky Romero, and Troy Tulowitzki. Andrew McCutchen was drafted 4 picks after that run. Oof. So whereas the faculty catcher genus is usually protected, it’s not infallible.

High faculty catchers, however, make Collins and Clement seem like Johnny Bench. They’re about even cash to make the majors in any respect, and there haven’t been many successes. Here are the highest profession WAR for first-round catchers who bought over the Mauer Line:

But perhaps I’m selecting on the Soderstrom varieties. Maybe the fallback plan for first-round highschool catchers — change positions, hit dingers — is definitely a well-trodden path.

Again, no. The final first-round highschool catcher to recover from 1 WAR for his profession at a unique place is the eternally underrated Neil Walker, the eleventh general choose in 2004. So Mitchell and Velazquez ought to postpone purchasing for first baseman’s mitts so long as potential. When it involves highschool first-round catchers, it’s sayonara in the event that they don’t stick behind the plate.

Trends like this are made to be damaged. I bear in mind when right-right faculty first basemen had been an entire useless finish from a draft perspective, after which Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Pete Alonso made a mockery of that viewpoint. And loads of high quality highschool catchers have been present in later rounds. But a first-round choose, significantly, a excessive one, is a valuable commodity — too valuable, for my part, to spend on a kind of participant for whom a lot can go incorrect. Maybe Mitchell and Velazquez would be the ones to buck the development. But it’s fairly a development to buck.