With Kershaw’s Surgical procedure and Lynn’s Declined Possibility, the Dodgers Rotation Turns into Even Thinner

The Dodgers offered some readability as regards to their decimated rotation on Friday, although maybe not in probably the most reassuring method. First, the workforce reportedly declined Lance Lynn’s $18 million possibility, after which Clayton Kershaw introduced through Instagram that he had undergone shoulder surgical procedure that morning, with hopes of a return to play “at some point next summer.” As if that didn’t elevate sufficient questions, the three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer did nothing to tip his hand relating to whether or not he’d search a return to the Dodgers.

When we final noticed the 35-year-old Kershaw in motion, he was leaving the mound after retiring simply one of many eight Diamondbacks he confronted within the Division Series opener. Because the Dodgers had been swept within the best-of-five collection, he didn’t get an opportunity to take one other flip, although supervisor Dave Roberts had deliberate to ship him out for Game 4 had the workforce prolonged the collection. Asked within the speedy aftermath of the workforce’s elimination what would come subsequent for him, Kershaw responded cryptically, saying, “I don’t know how to answer that right now.”

Kershaw’s lack of ability to articulate his plans on the time was comprehensible, partially as a result of for the third yr in a row he was headed in the direction of free company, with an opportunity to depart the one group he’s recognized since being drafted out of Highland Park High School in Dallas in 2006. In the previous two winters, he had given some consideration to pitching nearer to dwelling with the Rangers, however selected to return to the Dodgers after the 2021 season, signing a one-year, $17 million contract after the lockout resulted in March ’22, after which re-upping for one yr and $20 million final December. Though he missed the 2021 postseason on account of forearm discomfort, Kershaw didn’t have any health-related query marks hanging over his head by the point he re-signed both of these offers. This time, he’s in uncharted territory.

Kershaw pitched to a 2.46 ERA in 131.2 innings this yr and made his tenth NL All-Star workforce, however earlier than he might pitch within the All-Star Game, he landed on the injured listing with left shoulder soreness and missed six weeks. When he returned, he threw simply 36.1 innings in eight post-injury begins, and all through that run, each the pitcher and the workforce tiptoed across the topic of what was really occurring in his dinged wing. “He’s going to keep going until he can’t,” mentioned Roberts in a typical replace, this one after a tough September 5 begin through which Kershaw walked 5 and allowed three runs in 5 innings towards the Marlins. “I think the hope is he’s going to continue to feel better, but given where he’s at physically, it’s hard to say that’s going to happen.”

Kershaw’s shoulder situation compromised each his velocity and his command. He misplaced 2.7 mph on his month-to-month common four-seam fastball velocity from June (91.3 mph) to September (88.6), and by the pitch-modeling metrics, the standard of his stuff was manner, manner down:

Unsurprisingly, Kershaw’s peripherals suffered, along with his strikeout price falling off, his stroll price rising, and his dwelling run price hovering. Somehow, regardless of all of that in addition to a lot more durable contact, his ERA really dropped:

Even so, Kershaw completed with profession worsts in FIP, xERA, and barrel price, along with his stroll price his highest since 2010. Now at the very least we’ve got some inkling why. In his Instagram publish, Kershaw mentioned the surgical procedure, carried out by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, was to restore the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder:

Clayton Kershaw had left shoulder surgical procedure this morninghttps://t.co/yonq85Q2NE pic.twitter.com/bxgs0M8hVK

— Eric Stephen (@ericstephen) November 3, 2023

The three glenohumeral ligaments (superior, center, and inferior) join the scapula to the humerus. Effectively, they stabilize the ball of the higher arm bone throughout the socket of the shoulder blade. The capsule surrounds the joint and is strengthened by the rotator cuff muscular tissues.

Though he has frolicked on the injured listing in every of the previous eight seasons — extra typically for decrease again woes than for arm issues — that is the primary time in Kershaw’s skilled profession that he’s undergone surgical procedure. As finest we will inform from the minimal particulars provided, the surgical procedure doesn’t appear to be instantly associated to his rotator cuff or labrum; such surgical procedures would possibly put him out of motion for a whole season. Capsule surgical procedure isn’t any small matter, nonetheless, so it’s hardly out of the query that he may very well be sidelined for a full season as properly, if there are setbacks in his rehab. The excellent news is that doesn’t appear to be the baseline assumption.

That mentioned, a return to All-Star kind shouldn’t be the baseline assumption, both. Whether it’s for the Dodgers, who’ve precisely one starter who threw greater than 70 innings for them in 2023 (Bobby Miller) returning for ’24, or one other workforce, it’s not a on condition that Kershaw might approximate the 127 innings he’s averaged over the previous three seasons, not to mention the two.75 ERA, 3.21 FIP, or 3.2 WAR. Thus it could make extra sense for the workforce signing him to assume when it comes to a two-year take care of some bells and whistles — incentives, escalators, choices — given so many unknowns. It’s additionally attainable that Kershaw might wait till he’s additional alongside in his rehab, or at the very least has deliberated longer, earlier than committing to a workforce.

As for the opportunity of his becoming a member of the Rangers — who had been in a a lot totally different place throughout their earlier flirtations with Kershaw than they’re now — they’re lined as much as spend a fairly penny on beginning pitching, although it’s a rotation with its share of query marks. They’re “only” paying $22.5 million of Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million wage, with the Mets selecting up the remaining, however he’s heading into his age-39 season, has totaled simply 50 begins prior to now two seasons, and was a shaky proposition throughout this previous postseason. The workforce can also be paying Jacob deGrom $40 million as he rehabs from his second Tommy John surgical procedure, plus $16 million for Nathan Eovaldi, and $13 million apiece for Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney. The Rangers will seemingly let Martín Pérez stroll in free company; he accepted a $19.65 million qualifying provide after his first All-Star season final yr, however regressed significantly and wound up within the bullpen after the commerce deadline. Midseason acquisition Jordan Montgomery is a free agent as properly, and is more likely to land a giant elevate from the $10 million he made in 2023.

Via RosterResource, the Rangers’ payroll is at $219.1 million for Competitive Balance Tax functions, leaving them lower than $18 million beneath the primary tax threshold. If Kershaw needs to pitch for them, absolutely they’ll discover a solution to make the deal work, simply because the Dodgers will. Los Angeles “only” has $159.3 million dedicated for tax functions however a for much longer historical past of paying the CBT; the workforce was barely beneath the second threshold of $253 million in 2023.

Beyond the contract stuff, the harm has stalled Kershaw’s pursuit of a significant milestone, most likely the final one inside his attain. He’s 56 strikeouts away from turning into the twentieth pitcher to succeed in 3,000 strikeouts, and could be simply the fourth lefty to achieve that mark after Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and CC Sabathia. Former teammate Zack Greinke is 21 strikeouts away from 3,000, and will beat Kershaw to the milestone if he decides to pitch in 2024; each would be part of Scherzer and Justin Verlander among the many energetic pitchers at that plateau, although even when they wind up falling quick, it gained’t have an effect on their eventual election into the Hall of Fame, virtually definitely on the primary poll.

Ultimately, Kershaw will likely be sporting a Dodgers cap on his plaque, however he’ll must resolve whether or not he needs to be the uncommon Hall of Famer to have spent his whole profession with one workforce. Only six Hall of Fame hurlers whose careers began after World War II spent their careers with only one workforce, two of them with the Dodgers, specifically Sandy Koufax (1955–66) and Don Drysdale (1956-69); the others are Whitey Ford (Yankees 1950–57), Bob Gibson (Cardinals 1959–75), Jim Palmer (Orioles 1965–84), and Mariano Rivera (Yankees 1995–2013).

As for Lynn, who was an All-Star as just lately as 2021 and a dependable, well-traveled workhorse for years earlier than that, the information of his possibility being declined on the finish of his two-year, $38 million deal hardly comes as a shock. The 36-year-old righty was lit for a 6.47 ERA and 5.19 IP in 119.2 innings with the White Sox earlier than being traded to the Dodgers as a part of a five-player deal on July 28. He was the one rotation improve the workforce acquired forward of the deadline, a puzzling resolution on condition that Kershaw was on the injured listing alongside Walker Buehler, who was rehabbing from a second Tommy John surgical procedure, and Dustin May, who had undergone season-ending surgical procedure to restore his flexor tendon and revise his earlier Tommy John surgical procedure.

With a reconfigured arsenal — extra four-seamers and curves, fewer cutters — Lynn discovered fast success after the commerce, permitting simply 5 runs in 25 innings throughout his first 4 begins. Soon, nonetheless, the combination reverted to one thing nearer to what it had been on the South Side, and so did the outcomes; he had a 6.23 ERA and seven.59 FIP over his final seven begins, and excluding his ERA, his key numbers wound up worse post-trade:

Lynn’s dwelling run price not solely led all ERA qualifiers, it was the second-highest of any full-season AL/NL qualifier in historical past, behind solely Jose Lima (2.20 per 9 for the 2000 Astros). Lynn’s 44 homers allowed was probably the most by any pitcher in 12 years, and tied for the sixth-highest single-season whole:

Oy. And all of that was earlier than Lynn allowed 4 solo homers within the third inning of Game 3 of the NLDS, the coup de grâce for the Dodgers’ season. As you may think, ZiPS is fairly cautious of the massive righty’s future. Here’s the projection from Dan Szymborski:

The ZiPS contract advice for that could be a one-year, $6.8 million deal, a bit over one-third the worth of the choice the Dodgers declined. The transfer doesn’t rule out the chance that they re-sign Lynn for a decrease wage — his potential to eat innings is price one thing, as is the chance that the Dodgers might coax a greater efficiency out of him with a full season to work with him. But after this yr’s Noah Syndergaard debacle, the workforce is likely to be searching for extra certainty and a better ceiling.

Neither of Friday’s strikes totally rule out Kershaw or Lynn pitching for the Dodgers in 2024, and at this stage, the latter is one thing of an afterthought. The actual intrigue will likely be what Kershaw decides and when he returns, and it’s more likely to be awhile earlier than we’ve got solutions to each of these questions.