With the Return of Will Smith, the Dodgers Have Surged

Stop me in case you’ve heard this one: the Dodgers have the National League’s finest document. Just previous the one-quarter mark of the season, the group that’s dominated the NL West over the previous decade whereas profitable three pennants is again on prime with a 27-15 document, that after spending most of April struggling to keep away from .500. Since April 28, they’ve received 14 of 16, a span that has coincided with the return of Will Smith to the lineup after experiencing concussion-like signs.

As he’s been doing so usually currently, Smith performed a key function in Monday evening’s 12-inning win over the Twins at Dodger Stadium. In the primary inning, with a person on first, he hit a 398-foot wall-scraper off Pablo López for a two-run homer that instantly preceded a solo shot by Max Muncy. In the third, Smith poked a single to middle subject and got here dwelling on Muncy’s second homer of the evening. He didn’t get one other hit, however reached on an error within the fifth inning, which prompted Twins supervisor Rocco Baldelli to drag López from the sport. The Twins clawed again from a 5-1 deficit to tie the sport through Trevor Larnach‘s three-run eighth-inning homer and send it to extra innings, where they scored first in the 10th. But Smith, serving as the Manfred Man in the bottom of the frame, hustled home on a J.D. Martinez single that re-tied it. The Dodgers won in 12 on Trayce Thompson’s walk-off stroll.

Smith has been locked in currently, going 10-for-25 with two doubles, three homers and 7 RBIs in his previous six video games, all wins over the Brewers, Padres, and Twins. In reality, he’s been locked in nearly all season save for his time on the sidelines. The 28-year-old slugger began 10 of the Dodgers’ first 13 video games behind the plate, however took two foul balls off his catchers’ masks through the group’s April 10-12 collection in opposition to the Giants. He sat out the primary two video games of the Dodgers’ subsequent collection with the Cubs; earlier than the second, he informed the Dodgers he didn’t really feel proper however handed a concussion check. “He felt uneasy and foggy,” as supervisor Dave Roberts defined on the time. Preferring to take a cautious strategy, the Dodgers retroactively positioned Smith on the 7-day concussion injured checklist on April 16.

It can be an understatement to say that they missed Smith in his absence. They had been simply 7-6 when he acquired harm, 8-7 after they put him on the IL, and 13-13 after they activated him; they’re a exceptional 19-5 with him within the lineup. Without him for that two-week stretch, their offense curled up in a fetal place:

To the Dodgers’ credit score, they didn’t rush Smith again regardless of the group’s struggles, which owed one thing not solely to his absence however to backup Austin Barnes‘ struggles at the plate; he’s batting .088/.197/.105 in 66 PA general, and was at .111/.194/.111 throughout Smith’s absence. Rather than promote a catcher from the minors, the Dodgers picked up Austin Wynns, who had simply been launched by the Giants; he hit .182/.250/.273 throughout that stretch earlier than being designated for project. In different phrases, Smith’s absence left an outsized gap within the lineup.

Now he’s again and never solely in working order however wielding probably the most potent bats within the sport. Due to his absence, he’s 19 plate appearances in need of qualifying for the batting title, however amongst NL hitters with a minimum of 100 PA (a cutoff I’ll proceed to make use of for these comparisons), his .613 slugging share leads the league and his 173 wRC+ trails solely Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 175, together with his .323 batting common fifth and .412 on-base share seventh. Among catchers in both league, solely the Braves’ Sean Murphy (.268/.404/.561, 161 wRC+) and the Rangers’ Jonah Heim (.315/.371/.528, 148 wRC+) have offered comparable manufacturing, albeit in about 30 or 40 extra plate appearances.

Being on the head of the category amongst catchers is not any fluke for Smith. His 135 wRC+ since coming into the league in 2019 ranks seventeenth general, one level behind Jose Altuve and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and 10 factors forward of another catcher (Salvador Perez is second at 125). Among catchers, solely J.T. Realmuto has outdone his 12.7 WAR, and he has a 500-PA benefit on Smith. Somehow, Smith has by no means made an All-Star group, a evident injustice.

Smith continues to be in small-sample territory in some respects this season, however his numbers are eye-opening and price a more in-depth look; those I’m stating are typically from samples massive sufficient to have begun to stabilize. To these eyes, the one that almost all stands out is that he’s putting out in simply 7% of his plate appearances, the bottom price of any participant with a minimum of 100 PA this facet of Luis Arraez. That price is lower than half final yr’s 16.6%; his 9.6-point drop is the majors’ third largest behind solely Victor Robles’ 12.5% (from 25.6% to 13.1%) and Gleyber Torres’ 9.8% (from 22.6% to 12.7%). Batter strikeout price begins to stabilize at 60 PA, so that is notably notable.

What’s odd is that Smith isn’t swinging notably lower than in years previous, or chasing out of the zone notably much less; his 42.5% swing price is 0.6% above his profession norm, his 25.7% chase price 1.3% above. His 94.1% zone contact price and 4.4% swinging strike price, nonetheless, are out of character given respective profession marks of 87.2% and seven.5%. When he’s swinging at strikes, he’s making a ton of contact, extra on which momentarily.

When he hasn’t swung, Smith has struck out simply as soon as; on April 29, the Cardinals’ Jordan Hicks put a slider on the surface edge that Smith might solely observe. Only 4 different hitters have seen a minimum of 400 pitches this yr and brought only one known as strike three, specifically Arraez, Charlie Blackmon, Joc Pederson, and Masataka Yoshida. Meanwhile, Smith has walked in 14% of his plate appearances, double his strikeout price and about 5 factors behind the speed of NL chief Juan Soto, however three factors above his personal profession mark.

Another factor that stands out about Smith is the 43-point hole between his batting common (.323) and BABIP (.280). It’s uncommon to see a batting common larger than a BABIP, even in a small-ish pattern; of the 227 gamers with a minimum of 100 PA this yr via Sunday, solely 10 had a better AVG than BABIP, and 6 of these had been by 5 factors or much less. Of the 12,423 player-seasons of a minimum of 100 PA through the Wild Card period, simply 431 (3.4%) have a better AVG than BABIP, the overwhelming majority by fewer than 10 factors. Smith, although, he’s in some wild firm:

All of those guys stroll(ed) lots, however keep in mind, walks aren’t a part of the equation for both batting common or BABIP. The energy and low strikeout price do have one thing to do with it, however given its magnitude, that is most probably a pattern measurement fluke, albeit an amusing one.

As for Smith’s contact, it’s principally unremarkable:

A few issues do stand out right here, specifically his unusually low barrel price — which locations within the twenty ninth percentile, in comparison with the 70s for his exit velo and hard-hit price — and his SLG-xSLG hole. Smith is barreling the ball lower than half as usually as in another season, but nonetheless slugging .613. Only one different batter presently has a barrel price beneath 5% and a slugging share of .500 or higher, specifically the Diamondbacks’ Geraldo Perdomo, who has a 1.3% barrel price however a .545 SLG in 105 PA, effectively forward of his .314 xSLG. Even on the 100 PA threshold, no person has mixed a sub-5% barrel price and a .500 SLG in a season since DJ LeMahieu and José Iglesias did so within the pandemic-shortened 2020, although it occurred 15 occasions from 2015-19. Nobody else this season has mixed a sub-5% barrel price and even a .450 xSLG, and just one batter did it in both 2021 or ’22, specifically Yandy Díaz (4.8% and .424 final yr, one level larger than his precise slugging share).

Smith’s 137-point SLG-xSLG hole is tied for third on the 100-PA cutoff, besides, he’s acquired the best xSLG of anybody within the prime 20 by 15 factors:

What has helped increase that hole for Smith is that he’s 2.4 homers forward of his Statcast-expected whole, which trails solely Pete Alonso’s 2.7. Monday evening’s homer did bounce off the highest of the Dodger Stadium right-center subject wall, however its 398-foot estimated distance was one foot shy of his longest such shot of the yr, and its 104.5-mph exit velocity and 24-degree launch angle gave it a 3.164 xSLG, his highest for any homer in 2023 (notice that such measures don’t account for route). Still, that one would have been out at solely 9 of the 30 ballparks. It’s not as if Smith can’t drive for distance, as he hit a 465-footer in Arizona final yr, one in every of his seven homers of a minimum of 420 toes; he averaged 405 toes on final yr’s homers however is at simply 382 this yr. Go determine.

Anyway, there’s a good bit right here that also reads as Small Sample Theater, together with the aforementioned 19-5 document with him within the lineup. Smith has had loads of assist throughout his post-concussion run; since April 28, Mookie Betts (175 wRC+ with six homers), Freddie Freeman (157 wRC+), Chris Taylor (128 wRC+), and Miguel Vargas (124 wRC+) have additionally been tearin’ up the pea patch, with the rotation (2.71 ERA, 3.50 FIP) and bullpen (2.70 ERA, 3.32 FIP) each holding up their ends of the discount as effectively. Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin have every come up large by posting ERAs of two.41 or decrease over their final three begins.

Particularly by beating the Padres in 5 out of six conferences throughout this stretch, the Dodgers have seized management of the NL West. They had been one sport behind the Diamondbacks when Smith returned from his IL keep; Arizona has gone a decent 10-6 however San Diego has gone simply 7-8 whereas the Dodgers have gone 14-2. Can they maintain this? We’ll see, but when they do, Smith’s function within the turnaround shouldn’t be forgotten.