The Oakland A’s haven’t been shy about calling up their high prospects this season, together with a slew of essentially the most highly-ranked younger gamers of their system. Many of these prospects have already begun to sculpt the narrative of their early massive league careers, to largely disappointing outcomes. Mason Miller dazzled in his first few outings, however was felled by harm quickly thereafter. Kyle Muller has bounced between the majors and Triple-A, with a meager mid-teens strikeout charge and an ERA above 7.00 at each ranges. Esteury Ruiz has been as spectacular as anticipated on the basepaths, however his Triple-A offense was a Las Vegas mirage that has dissipated within the majors. And whereas Ken Waldichuk’s stuff appeared noteworthy within the lead as much as the season, his stroll charge has ballooned and his fastball was at one level measured by Statcast because the worst within the league, at 16 runs worse than common. As of now, to borrow a phrase, he’s simply Ken.
This previous month has seen the promotion of three extra of Oakland’s promising younger prospects: Tyler Soderstrom, Zack Gelof, and Lawrence Butler. The most up-to-date of these promotions was Butler, who joined the A’s main league roster on August 11 after tamping down his strikeouts and discovering himself on an ultra-fast observe (he began the season at Double-A). With only a handful of video games underneath his belt, it’s too quickly to learn a lot into his efficiency. Soderstrom and Gelof, in the meantime, each debuted in mid-July. And whereas Soderstrom is the extra extremely ranked prospect, his bat has been too quiet to make up for his strikeouts on the massive league stage. Instead, it’s Gelof whose identify is presently accompanied by a string of fireplace emojis within the Baseball Savant search bar.
This isn’t the primary time that Gelof has displayed an affinity for outperforming expectations. As he climbed by way of the A’s minor league system, he by no means posted a line under league common regardless of being significantly youthful than the gamers round him. And whereas offensive numbers popping out of hitter-friendly Triple-A Vegas are by no means to be totally trusted (see Ruiz above), he’s continued that sample with the massive league squad, to the tune of a 174 wRC+ to date as a 23 yr previous. His pace has factored closely into his efficiency, by means of each stolen bases and hustling additional luggage out of bloop hits and defensive miscues. But most notable has been his energy, which has been nothing in need of explosive. Gelof’s hard-hit charge has climbed about 10% as a significant leaguer, and 20 of his 37 hits have been for additional bases, together with eight bombs, which he has despatched out to all components of the sector. The energy is especially thrilling, as that component of his recreation is commonly cited as his most vital offensive query mark.
The pure subsequent query, after all, is how is he doing this? Has Gelof made an adjustment to his method? Has his swing modified in a significant means as an enormous leaguer? And maybe most fascinating: If his massive league theatrics are a continuation of a protracted observe report of out-performing expectations, is it time for us to replace our expectations relating to his future?
As at all times, context is vital, and in Gelof’s case, additional investigation into the context surrounding his sizzling streak throws a little bit of a moist blanket over these fireplace emojis. Despite his on-paper energy manufacturing, Gelof’s underlying metrics make it harder to purchase into his thump long-term. His exit velocities are fairly low towards something aside from four-seam fastballs, and his BABIP is on the excessive facet, as lots of his hits have been extra of the well-placed than the well-struck selection. Most alarming, although, is his in-zone contact charge, which is within the low 70s, a number of factors decrease than any certified main leaguer this yr.
Here is a chart of all of Gelof’s swinging strikes (together with foul suggestions) as an enormous leaguer, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
While Soderstrom is a really completely different kind of prospect than Gelof, they debuted on the identical day and have very related strikeout charges proper now. So let’s check out Soderstrom’s swing-and-miss chart as a method of comparability:
The variations between these charts are apparent, and based mostly on that alone, Gelof’s success relative to Soderstrom’s is a little bit of a shock. A mere look at their respective swinging strikes highlights the troubling in-zone points plaguing Gelof’s method, and looking out again at his in-zone whiffs as a minor leaguer, it’s exhausting to pinpoint any enhancements or changes in that space.
A more in-depth take a look at the place Gelof is making significant contact is illuminating. He’s considerably extra harmful up within the zone, together with his OPS on in-zone choices within the higher half sitting at practically double that on choices within the decrease half.
Here’s a take a look at all of Gelof’s massive league hits this season:
I believe his upper-zone proclivity is basically as a result of form of his swing and the way it interacts with the form of the pitches he’s seeing.
Here’s a facet view of Gelof’s swing, taken on the backfields final yr:
Here, I’ve added a path to spotlight the trail of the pinnacle of his bat:
The flatness of Gelof’s bat path is simpler to note when in comparison with a swing geared extra towards energy. Lucky for us, the video above was taken at a recreation that additionally featured Astros outfield prospect Zach Daniels, whose swing has drawn comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton’s on account of its predisposition for energy. Since he performed in the identical recreation, we’ve video from exactly the identical vantage level to match Gelof’s minimize to.
Here’s what Daniels’ swing appeared like that night time, first by itself, then with a path:
For good measure, right here’s what the 2 swings seem like overlayed and aligned at house plate:
And lastly, right here’s an overlay of simply the shapes created by their respective bat heads. This time, they’re aligned on the level at which they make contact, to get a way for the way every bat interacts with the ball, particularly the steepness of Daniel’s bat path, relative to Gelof’s:
The movies above are from final yr, however Gelof’s swing seems to be the identical now because it did then. Indeed, the flatness of his swing has been famous all through his minor league profession. Here’s a take a look at what his swing has appeared like over time, exhibiting how little it has modified:
In the previous, I’ve described Gelof’s atypically flat swing as having a softball look to it. But lest that description be misconstrued as a dig towards Gelof (or softball), I’ll assert that his swing’s softbally-ness is precisely what explains the outcomes he’s getting with it.
The variations between softball and baseball are many, however one of the crucial basic, from a mechanics perspective, is the angle from which a pitch approaches the plate. In baseball, the mound and pitchers’ overhand deliveries create a downward angle in direction of the hitter. In softball, not solely is the pitcher throwing from the polar reverse launch level (submariners however), however the area’s lack of a mound additional lowers that launch level such {that a} fastpitch softball supply creates an upward angle towards the plate. The flat swing sometimes related to softball is a direct response to this distinction in angle, as an uppercut is way more tough to time towards the pitch’s upward trajectory. This is why baseball swings are exhausting to adapt to fastpitch softball (and why baseball swings are sometimes more practical in slowpitch softball than fastpitch softball swings are, however that’s a dialogue for one more time).
Now, to make certain, Gelof’s swing isn’t actually a softball swing. It’s simply that his non-existent load, flat bat path, and the dearth of pure carry in his end mix to imitate the mechanics of a softball swing. It stands to purpose, then, that upper-zone four-seam fastballs – i.e. the pitches he sees whose shapes finest mimic the everyday form of a softball pitch angle – are those off which his swing is taking part in finest (seven of his eight dingers have been on four-seamers at or across the letters). It’s true he hasn’t but confronted lots of the sport’s most fearsome ride-inducing flamethrowers, however his first massive league house run did come off of Houston’s Ryne Stanek, whose four-seamer has produced among the least downward motion throughout baseball this season (his fastball has simply seven inches of drop, whereas the league common is 15 inches):
It additionally sheds some gentle on why Gelof struggles to make strong contact towards changeups and breaking balls with downward motion. His lack of uppercut requires him to increase his arms in a means that decreases the ability they’re producing in an effort to cowl the decrease and outer components of the strike zone:
So, to reply the questions I put forth above: No, Gelof hasn’t demonstrated any apparent changes to both his swing choices, or to his swing itself. Still, his outcomes communicate for themselves, although it’s exhausting to not be skeptical about their long-term playability. As massive league pitchers grow to be extra conversant in Gelof, it appears inevitable that these flaws will finally catch as much as him. If and when the ability dries up, or his weaker contact stops discovering unoccupied spots on the sector, Gelof could also be pressured to treatment his in-zone contact points, significantly within the decrease half. But for now, he can afford an ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it mindset regarding the strengths and weaknesses of his swing and easily get pleasure from his standing as a uncommon shiny spot for an in any other case bleak 2023 in Oakland.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com