Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat - 8/7/23

2:01Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
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2:01Ben Clemens: Let’s get began immediately
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2:01Sammy So-so: What do you make of Jarred Kelenic’s season previous to the unlucky harm, Ben? Started off scorching, then he was fairly pedestrian. Is he a stable common going ahead or one thing else? Thanks.
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2:02Ben Clemens: I believe stable common with growth/bust tendencies sounds about proper to me
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2:02Ben Clemens: He’s type of miniature Joey Gallo; when he’s not hanging out that a lot, the facility actually performs
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2:03Ben Clemens: But his swing is simply not geared for contact, and he doesn’t have a superlative batting eye or something
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2:03Ben Clemens: So I believe he’s inevitably going to have these stretches the place he strikes out 40% of the time and feels unplayable
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2:03Cube Jockey: Any historic comps that time to Jordan Walker turning into even only a mediocre nook outfielder?
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2:04Ben Clemens: Nothing springs to thoughts, however he’s such a bizarre case that I’m not at code purple simply but. He’s 21 and the primary time he performed outfield was final 12 months in Double-A
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2:05Ben Clemens: I believe the wager right here is that his athleticism goes to proceed to play whereas his reads and routes enhance
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2:05Ben Clemens: I don’t assume he’s ever going to be nice however in fact he’s terrible proper now
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2:05farhanfan22: what's LA pondering by taking part in Austin Barnes over Hunter Feduccia, Feddy is a righty killer who smashes excessive velocity fastballs. Do you see LA carrying 3 catchers this season?
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2:06Ben Clemens: I imply, I believe they're pondering ‘Dave Roberts trusts Barnes to call a game’
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2:06Ben Clemens: additionally, Feduccia’s first above common offensive season since short-season A ball is that this 12 months
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2:06Ben Clemens: so it’s not like he’s assured offense in a can
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2:07Ben Clemens: however yeah, Barnes shouldn't be taking part in. He’s been SO unhealthy this 12 months
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2:07JC: How correct are league changes within the minors? I see some .350 wOBAs with a sub 100 wRC+.
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2:07Ben Clemens: So, the massive situation with our minor league changes is that we solely league modify, not park modify
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2:08Ben Clemens: however general, they’re not going to overlook one thing such as you’re speaking about
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2:08Ben Clemens: the PCL is outrageously excessive scoring this 12 months, 6.21 runs per sport
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2:10Ben Clemens: It’s simply actually laborious to assume in wOBA phrases on condition that
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2:10Ben Clemens: like that league’s OBP this 12 months is .369
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2:10Brandon Pfaadt: How many guys might be profitable whereas hiding their extraordinarily hittable fastball? What’s his ceiling figuring out his fastball isn’t MLB customary? He seemed actually nice in his final begin specializing in the sweeper.
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2:11Ben Clemens: I believe Pfaadt is gonna be fairly good
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2:11Ben Clemens: ‘extremely hittable fastball’ describes SO MANY pitchers right now
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2:11Domingo: Would Fangraphs ever contemplate exhibiting bWAR for the sake of comparability?
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2:11Ben Clemens: I’m not in administration, however I don’t assume so. Would reference ever contemplate exhibiting ours? Presumably not
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2:12Ben Clemens: It simply seems like a bizarre factor to do, to me offhand
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2:12Mariner Fan: How does the Phillies as a crew have a 16.6 fWAR over 996.1 IP, whereas the Mariners have a 15.2 fWAR over 1002.1 IP when evaluating their 2023 crew pitching stats?All of that is regardless of the Mariners having actually higher metrics throughout the board. The solely stat that favors the Phillies is GB% which they maintain a 0.1% benefit 43.7% to 43.6% over the Mariners!
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2:13Ben Clemens: park changes
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2:13Princess Leia: Help us Obi-wan Clemon-obi, You’re our solely hope
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2:13Ben Clemens: Hey, that’s a brand new one
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2:13Domingo: A lefty catcher could be higher at fielding bunts than a righty. Why no lefty catchers?
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2:13Ben Clemens: As a once-young lefty, I can let you know that after I performed little league, there was no consideration of me catching
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2:13Ben Clemens: it was first base or heart discipline (I used to be pretty quick)
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2:14Ben Clemens: I’m unsure if that’s all of it, however that’s a number of it, the pipeline is simply not there
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2:14Acuna Matata: what a beautiful phrase!

And what a frickin STUD! Really hope he begins lifting balls just a little extra. I need to see 40-70 SO unhealthy.

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2:14Ben Clemens: 40/70 could be superb
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2:14Oaktown Blues: Are you shocked the A’s couldn’t get something for Laureano on the deadline?
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2:14Ben Clemens: So…. no, however solely as a result of I assume they had been making an attempt to commerce him together with his contract hooked up
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2:15Ben Clemens: I believe he’s most likely tremendous as a fourth outfielder someplace
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2:15Ben Clemens: the final two years don't give me a number of hope that he’s going to crack the offensive code anytime quickly
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2:15Ben Clemens: But I can’t think about many groups wanting to surrender prospects and tackle cash for a backup
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2:16Jaffe rhymes with Taffy: Is it truthful to say after 3 video games Davis Schneider has supplied extra worth than Vlad Jr.?  0.6 fWAR to 0.3 fWAR, or is that this an entire misuse of the WAR metric?
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2:16Ben Clemens: haha, misuse of the WAR statistic however that’s humorous
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2:16Ben Clemens: boy, Vlad is having a tough one this 12 months
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2:16Colton: After the spot begin yesterday, do you assume the Cardinals will lastly decide to Thompson being within the rotation shifting ahead? If they transfer him again to the bullpen in favor of Dakota Hudson I've fully misplaced religion in any choice making physique inside that group.
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2:17Ben Clemens: I do assume so, but when we’re being trustworthy, they need to most likely go six man rotation or reduce Waino out
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2:17Ben Clemens: Hudson is price speculating on too, imo
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2:17Matt: How good would Johan Ruis should be within the OF, and Harper at 1b, for the phillies to not carry again Hoskins subsequent 12 months?  What do you assume an important a part of that puzzle is?
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2:17Ben Clemens: uh, Hoskins possibly? He’s a free agent
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2:18Ben Clemens: I believe the chances of them not bringing Hoskins again are pretty excessive, to be trustworthy. It seems like a bizarre match given what number of DH varieties they've
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2:18Ben Clemens: significantly for those who’re at the least just a little frightened about Harper’s skill to remain wholesome taking part in proper
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2:18Jon: Arozarena looks as if a commerce candidate primarily based on his service time, however he’s so central to the Rays’ followers (Randyland). What are the chances of him getting moved?
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2:18Ben Clemens: I can’t see it taking place. I additionally assume he’s central to the general crew environment, and he’s not comically overpaid or something
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2:19Ben Clemens: The Rays do a number of buying and selling earlier than folks attain arb, nevertheless it’s not an across-the-board plan or something
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2:19Guest: Never thought I might pose the query, however I believe the circumstances at the least name for consideration now. If you had been an A’s fan would you proceed to be one or transfer alliances throughout the bay?
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2:19Ben Clemens: This is actually powerful
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2:20Ben Clemens: Assuming the A’s transfer, I believe you instantly develop into a free agent. I’m unsure meaning cheering for the Giants, crosstown (cross-bay?) rivalries die laborious even when they’re not in the identical league, however it's best to decide a crew you want watching
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2:20Ben Clemens: It’s enjoyable to attend video games in individual even for those who’re not a fan of the house crew, in my view
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2:20Ben Clemens: and if going to some Giants video games makes you develop just a little little bit of homerism for them, so be it
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2:20Oaktown Blues: At this level, which facet of the Puk/Bleday commerce do you like?
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2:20Ben Clemens: the Puk facet, however not by loads
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2:21Ben Clemens: I believe he’s the chook within the hand on this situation, a man who might be a pleasant however not overwhelmingly good reliever for the subsequent few years
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2:21Ben Clemens: Bleday…. I imply, I don’t actually see it, however stranger issues have occurred
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2:21Farhandrew Zaidman: Dodgers appear to have obtained that positional flexibility again, protection is improved by extra frequently DHing Muncy for Taylor/Kiké, Buehler/Kersh/Julio are all already again or coming again. Over/below 95 wins for my boys in blue?
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2:21Ben Clemens: I can’t imagine I’m saying this however over
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2:21Appa Yip Yip: Over/Under on variety of mustaches grown by Blue Jays place gamers by this time subsequent week at 1.5
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2:21Ben Clemens: Smash the over on this one
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2:22Brian: Was Kodai  Senga thought-about for the commerce worth checklist?
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2:22Ben Clemens: Honestly, not likely
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2:22Ben Clemens: The contract is kinda funky, if it seems that he’s nice he can choose out in two years
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2:23Ben Clemens: so like, the entire ‘oh it’s a ton of years of a great AAV’ factor doesn’t fairly add up
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2:24Ben Clemens: and he’s not dominant sufficient that 2.5 years of him is thrashing out 2.5 years of Gallen/Framber varieties
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2:24Ben Clemens: so that might put him down on the backside of the checklist if he had been on there, however like…. him or Joe Ryan? straightforward ryan for me
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2:24Alex: Please clarify the 2023 San Diego Padres. I don't perceive
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2:24Ben Clemens: Truly baffling lol
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2:26Ben Clemens: The stars are taking part in like stars, the function gamers have been much less dire than feared, they're scoring a ton of runs and….
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2:26Ben Clemens: yeah simply doesn’t work
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2:26Guest: So after per week of pondering…yeah, I nonetheless don’t get the Royals’ facet of the Nicky Lopez commerce. Not solely would they've saved extra money just by letting him get claimed on waivers, but when they wished Hearn, they may have claimed him straight-up on waivers not lengthy earlier than. At least a flier arm would make extra sense than getting Hearn again. Small deal within the grand scheme of issues, however arguably the only dumbest choice for this commerce deadline.
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2:26Ben Clemens: It is mindless in any respect
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2:26Ben Clemens: it’s like unhealthy course of unhealthy outcomes
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2:27RA Niekro: Favorite Immaculate Grid guys?  I discover myself with the ability to use Dan Haren fairly typically, and he usually will get a low %.
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2:27Guest: you play immaculate grid?

Also what makes Lars Nootbaar the best second half performer in MLB historical past?

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2:27Ben Clemens: I play immaculate grid generally; very extraordinarily minor spoiler however I’m grumpy b/c Phil Maton doesn't depend as an Astros WS champion
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2:28Ben Clemens: I believe he was injured and missed the playoffs, c’est la vie
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2:28Northside: Is Steele regressing simply because the Cubs want their beginning pitchers to step up?
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2:28Ben Clemens: Eh, it’s two tough video games
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2:28Ben Clemens: To be trustworthy, I've not watched these two begins significantly intently
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2:29Ben Clemens: however I’d maintain off on sounding the alarm simply but, nothing jumps out at me from trying over the stats superficially
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2:29O’s Fan: The Orioles appear intent on discovering a job for Jorge Mateo, even giving him a begin in CF, who merely can’t hit.  Would they be higher off selling Joey Ortiz who's smashing the ball in Norfolk and simply slicing bait on Mateo.
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2:29Ben Clemens: Yeah for those who aren’t taking part in Mateo for his 65/70 shortstop protection, I don’t get it
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2:30Ben Clemens: like, he can actually decide it, he’s a worthwhile defensive infielder
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2:30Ben Clemens: really can not hit
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2:30Mike M: Does this present skid change your views concerning the Angels trade-deadline technique?
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2:30Ben Clemens: Nope, not likely. Pretty unhealthy beat to go 2-8 and lose two key contributors to harm in that stretch. I’m really writing about this tomorrow
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2:31Ben Clemens: Their odds of constructing the playoffs weren’t nice or something
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2:31Ben Clemens: I’d nonetheless have gone for it
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2:31Ben Clemens: clearly, it has not turned out effectively
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2:31David: Are the Yankees in charge for a way they dealt with Rizzo or are concussions simply actually difficult?
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2:31Ben Clemens: I believe this can be a query that may’t actually be answered with out being on the within or getting inside sources
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2:31Ben Clemens: concussions are undoubtedly actually difficult, significantly post-concussion signs and so forth
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2:32Dave: Does the truth that seemingly each superior defensive metric is a comparability to common at a given place trigger analysis points? If there’s a sudden inflow of latest gamers at a given place that shift the common noticeably, is there any method to tease that out of the information? Or does it create the chance that it seems to be like participant X grew to become a worse defender when in actuality his competitors simply obtained higher?
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2:32Ben Clemens: oh, that’s completely attainable
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2:32Ben Clemens: On the opposite hand…. that’s type of what we’re making an attempt to measure
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2:32rizzless rizzo: who could be essentially the most thrilling non-Atlanta crew to root for down the stretch?
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2:33Ben Clemens: Okay, I've just a few choices for you relying on what fashion of baseball you want
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2:33Ben Clemens: youngsters sitting on the grownup desk? O’s and Reds, most likely O’s as a result of the Reds are fading fats
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2:33Ben Clemens: protection and pitching? I’m a fan of the Giants, and also you get the attractive bay views on the published too
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2:33Ben Clemens: do you want Bryce Harper loads? the Phillies
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2:34Ben Clemens: do you need to root in opposition to the Astros, which I really feel like a number of followers do? The Rangers
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2:34JRod: Am I simply going to be a sluggish starter?
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2:34Ben Clemens: Hard to say after two seasons, one in all which was his rookie 12 months
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2:34rowdy and adames: is that this who we're, or did we hit our twentieth percentile final result this season?
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2:35Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say that that is near who Rowdy is, like not this unhealthy however not an affect bat, possibly a 90 wRC+ kind
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2:35Ben Clemens: not a great 1b
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2:35Ben Clemens: I believe Adames simply hit a twentieth percentile final result
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2:36Ben Clemens: I’ve spent a very long time making an attempt to determine why his numbers are so unhealthy and I simply don’t see a transparent offender. He’s additionally began urgent it appears, swinging and chasing extra, making an attempt to get it again. Feels just like the type of factor that an offseason presses reset on
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2:36MilwaukeeBeerJays: How Davis Schneider? Why Davis Schneider? Where Davis Schneider?
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2:36Ben Clemens: the truth that he’s been utilizing a glove he discovered at misplaced and located is simply so good
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2:36EonADS: Please persuade me the Guardians made the proper transfer by buying Manzardo for Civale.
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2:36Ben Clemens: .I’m not wild about it, haha
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2:37Ben Clemens: I believe it matches with the way in which they function
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2:37Ben Clemens: so in that sense, they should play the crew because it lies
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2:37Ben Clemens: however I believe they’re type of pigeonholing themselves into this develop/commerce pitching and get a number of first rate however not star gamers mould
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2:37Ben Clemens: hey, not unhealthy, clearly works
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2:37Alex: Bryce Elder – regardless of the whole lot – his Tiffany-blue baseball savant web page, his having given up seven runs in three of his final 5 begins, and alternatively additionally All-Star choice – primarily based on his first 22 main league begins, Bryce Elder *appears* like he’ll settle in as a fairly good 4/5 starter, someplace in between Jon Niese and Dillon Gee. Is that truthful?
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2:37Ben Clemens: that’s precisely the vibe I get
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2:38Romorr: Ben, simply know if the standings maintain within the ALE, I'll let everybody know you picked the Orioles. I'm your hype man, man.
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2:38Ben Clemens: That turned out surprisingly effectively for what was actually simply an odds wager
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2:38Ben Clemens: I do be ok with it, I’m not gonna lie
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2:38Phil: After the Royals misplaced their DH attributable to a catcher harm, Quatraro stated that Greinke would solely have hit with a lead. Are you assured that was proper, tactically? Assuming Greinke was likelier to get outs than the bullpen, and had a larger than zero likelihood of getting on base, what's the threshold the place it is sensible to go away him in? I suppose the query would have appeared far much less novel within the NL just a few years in the past.
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2:39Ben Clemens: I’m kiiiiind of inquisitive about trying into this, I actually miss getting to jot down articles about pitchers hitting
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2:39Ben Clemens: additionally it’s insulting that they didn’t let him hit, what are we doing right here?
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2:39Ben Clemens: nobody’s going to recollect who received that sport however there was a non-zero likelihood of him doing one thing Greinke-esque
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2:39Travis: Is Acuna’s Ok charge subsequent 12 months nearer to his profession common or 2023 season?
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2:40Ben Clemens: hmmmmmm…. I believe I've to take profession common however I believe it’s shut
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2:40Ben Clemens: his profession common is 23%
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2:40Ben Clemens: this 12 months 12.2%
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2:40Ben Clemens: I really feel like 17-18% sounds proper to me
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2:40Alex: Bill James’s reply to “why no lefty catchers”: if you're left-handed and may throw the ball laborious sufficient to catch, you'll find yourself on the mound. Every single time.
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2:41Ben Clemens: I imply…. you’re more likely to find yourself on the mound as a righty too. I believe that’s undoubtedly an element nevertheless it’s a number of issues, not simply that
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2:41Jason: With regression hitting the dbacks laborious, what are the constructive takeaways from this season(apart from Carroll)?
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2:42Ben Clemens: Building from Jay Jaffe’s article on them right now, I believe that Christian Walker being a stable 1b is very nice
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2:42Ben Clemens: Alek Thomas has turned it up barely, if he’s a mean bat he’s going to be a extremely worthwhile participant
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2:42Ben Clemens: I’m very inspired by Gab Moreno regardless of so-so general stats
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2:43Ben Clemens: So…. I dunno, there are some issues
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2:43Mike: Guardians possibilities to win the AL Central now trying very bleak. Think there’s nonetheless hope for subsequent 12 months or are they going to be middling for some time?
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2:43Ben Clemens: Yes to each haha
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2:43Ben Clemens: middling means you’ve obtained a shot
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2:44Ben Clemens: within the AL central, at the least
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2:44Colton: Re: Thompson-Hudson. Isn’t Hudson redundant to what they’re searching for shifting ahead? He’s by no means run a mean strikeout charge and constantly has the best stroll charge in baseball. I perceive protecting choices open, however sooner or later the door has to shut on him, proper?
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2:44Ben Clemens: I believe Hudson could be very key to what must be a core cardinals aim
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2:45Ben Clemens: Having sven gamers who could make main league begins in 2024
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2:45Ben Clemens: Moving Matz again to the rotation was a pleasant begin on that
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2:45Ben Clemens: however I believe they actually need to dig deep and discover as many individuals as they'll
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2:45The Pirate Parrot: Will the pirates strongly contemplate shifting bednar or keller within the offseason? Feels like an enormous step backward for a membership that must be shifting ahead
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2:46Ben Clemens: I believe that buying and selling Keller could be a mistake from a team-building standpoint, however I believe you possibly can discuss the crew right into a reliever commerce being in line with making an attempt to maintain getting higher
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2:46Ben Clemens: Honestly, it’s laborious to determine the Pirates’ motives although
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2:46Ben Clemens: How a lot is Nutting-driven? How a lot is Cherington? How a lot is about making an attempt to get followers into PNC and the way a lot is a couple of sustainable winner and…
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2:47Dan: When a groups relative WAR projections are noticably totally different than their relative ROS win share projection does that say they're unusually good/unhealthy at deploying their expertise effectively or is it almost all power of schedule? Or am I lacking one thing else completely?
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2:47Ben Clemens: power of schedule nearly completely
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2:47Ben Clemens: tehre’s a tiny affect as a result of we don’t calculate crew power immediately from WAR
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2:47Ben Clemens: we take the projected statlines and switch them into runs scored and runs allowed per sport by way of BaseRuns with some changes for protection
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2:47Ben Clemens: so it’s each, however power of schedule is only a a lot greater issue
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2:48Guards: Why can we constantly prioritize contact over energy in expertise acquisition ?
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2:48Ben Clemens: It’s fairly clearly an organizational philosophy, and I actually don’t know the precise purpose behind it
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2:48Ben Clemens: It might need one thing to do with the relative prices of energy and make contact with in arbitration, the Guardians appear very critical about protecting arbitration payouts down
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2:48Ben Clemens: It’s not inherently higher, or inherently extra proof against the whims of the offensive atmosphere, or something
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2:49SeaTown: What can we count on from Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo the remainder of this 12 months? What about for the subsequent couple years? I’m pondering excessive finish 3s, not too far behind Gilbert, however possibly I’m too hopeful.
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2:49Ben Clemens: I believe they’re middle-end 3s, however I’ve heard folks extra optimistic than that for usre
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2:49J: If you’re placing any inventory right into a pitcher’s outcomes in opposition to the Braves in a single sport, you’re going to assume each pitcher sucks.
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2:49Ben Clemens: There’s this too!
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2:49Billy’s beans: Did the elevated playoff discipline kill the commerce deadline?
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2:49Ben Clemens: Last 12 months’s deadline was wild
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2:49Ben Clemens: So I believe it’s most likely too quickly to say?
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2:4912 to six: how did *no person* handle to pry michael busch free from the dodgers, given he’s completely blocked proper now? minors are minors and it's a hitters’ league, however you possibly can’t inform me busch shouldn’t be beginning 4+ instances per week for *somebody* at dh proper now.
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2:50Ben Clemens: I agree with you, he’s mashing, however what was there to commerce to go get him?
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2:50Ben Clemens: that the Dodgers wanted, I imply
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2:50Guest: Odds Shohei wins the CY AND the triple crown?
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2:50Ben Clemens: It’s low simply b/c the triple crown is so powerful
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2:50Ben Clemens: and he’s not a cy favourite at hte second both
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2:51Ben Clemens: like, making up 15 factors of common on Bichette plus passing two folks and never getting handed by anybody, plus making up a 7 rbi hole
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2:51Ben Clemens: each actually laborious
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2:51Benny: Considering the DH penalty the place hitters on common fare worse when batting as a DH and that it will make sense that hitters could carry out worse whereas pitching (clearly not a lot knowledge on that since so few gamers have batted loads as each pitchers and place gamers), how possible is it that Ohtani could be a fair higher hitter one way or the other as an outfielder? (Not suggesting he quit pitching, simply questioning)
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2:51Ben Clemens: Eh, I’m not tremendous satisfied by this. I believe that a number of the DH penalty is an unobservable harm situation
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2:51Ben Clemens: Like, whenever you’re feeling banged up, you play DH
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2:52Ben Clemens: so naturally DH’s have worse common well being, significantly given the way in which that groups unfold round DH AB’s a lot now
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2:52Ben Clemens: I can’t think about that giving Ohtani MORE issues to do could be an amazing thought
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2:52Okra: Is it simply me or can we penalize prospects an excessive amount of if there may be danger of shifting down the defensive spectrum?  I all the time hear prospects guys say ‘there is such a high bar to clear’ however wRC+ for LF, RF, DH this 12 months is 102, 104, 108.  Doesn’t appear that top of a bar.
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2:52Ben Clemens: I believe we do an excessive amount of for actually good bats
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2:53Ben Clemens: however I assume the factor is, common bats who play these defensive positions are simply out there
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2:53Ben Clemens: on a regular basis
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2:53Ben Clemens: for those who wished to discover a 100 wRC+ left fielder on the commerce deadline
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2:53Ben Clemens: like, okay, straightforward
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2:53Ben Clemens: in order that makes them much less fascinating to groups
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2:53Phil: Plus it’s not just like the Royals are taking part in for something. If you go to the sport when Greinke is pitching you’re going to see Greinke.
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2:53Ben Clemens: Yeah precisely!
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2:54Farhandrew Zaidman: As enjoyable as a Jackson Holliday 2023 name up could be, there’s no means THIS Orioles crew, which is so ahead pondering, begins his clock this quickly, proper?….proper???
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2:54Ben Clemens: I might see it taking place in the event that they assume he’s a lock to begin subsequent 12 months within the bigs
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2:54Ben Clemens: Wouldn’t have an effect on the service time clock in any respect that means
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2:54Ben Clemens: That stated, uh, I don’t assume that may occur
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2:55tortycraig: I believe the entire ‘we’re pivoting to a swing and miss technique’ is hilarious, and making means too huge an affect on Cardinals fan expectations. Like, they want 7-8 competent starters in 2024 and we’re gonna be fortunate to get one with ‘swing and miss’. It’s like an getting old athlete saying ‘ah! I’m simply going to run quicker and hit more durable now that everybody’s doing that’
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2:55Ben Clemens: ‘we ran this regression, and it says strikeouts are good. We are now going to do more strikeouts’
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2:55The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Hey Ben.

The White Sox are clearly not competing subsequent 12 months. Why on earth maintain on to Cease? IF, all goes effectively, they compete in two years, that’ll be the final 12 months they've him. Plus, they should hope he stays wholesome/efficient that complete time.

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2:56Ben Clemens: I dunno, as a result of folks like watching Dylan Cease pitch and do you really need the crew to be an absolute tire hearth?
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2:56Ben Clemens: I imply, to be truthful, it already type of is
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2:56Ben Clemens: But much more of 1!
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2:56Ben Clemens: I believe there’s worth in having a great participant in your crew even for those who’re not gonna be nice. Like in the event that they obtained blown away for a commerce bundle for him tremendous, nevertheless it’s not like he HAD to go irrespective of the affords out there
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2:56Dan: I simply discovered about Anthony Seigler taking part in left handed protection within the outfield and proper handed protection as a catcher and really feel like somebody ought to have advised me about him sooner. This appears wild.
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2:56Ben Clemens: Wait what? I’m gonna go examine this
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2:56Guest: Are you shocked the Cardinald didn’t half with any OF?
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2:57Ben Clemens: Yankees for one in all O’Neill or Carlson made sense, I believe the Yankees being unhealthy sufficient that they didn’t purchase actually poured chilly water on that
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2:57Farhandrew Zaidman: I’m simply gonna rant into the ether that the Qualified IP mark for pitchers desperately, desperately must be lowered. Like there’s at the moment juuuust over 2 certified pitchers per crew. Lame.
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2:57Ben Clemens: completely agreed
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2:57Oddball Herrera: Re: Holliday. Weirder guys have made postseason rosters. Would you moderately ship in Mateo off the bench or Holliday?
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2:58Ben Clemens: I’m really extra inquisitive about Mateo on a postseason roster than common season, due to the protection
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2:58Ben Clemens: having an ultra-defense lineup to expire when you might have a lead is superior
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2:58HappyFunBall: 230 PAs in, Elly De La Cruz is Javier Baez proper? Basically? Really good however isn’t about to threaten Acuna for best-in-baseball any time quickly.
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2:59Ben Clemens: It’s most likely a liiiiittle early to say that a couple of 21-year-old change hitter, and after 230 PA, however he’s obtained some stuff to work on for positive
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2:59Tommy: What have your ideas been on the non Corbin Carroll contingent of younger dbacks outfielders? Thomas particularly has some fascinating underlying numbers
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2:59Ben Clemens: Yeah I like Thomas essentially the most of them, I believe the pace and sneaky pop mixture will play
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2:59Izzy: I do know Riley Greene’s BAPIP is over .400, however he’s nonetheless fairly good, proper?
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2:59Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe so
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2:59tortycraig: no must share this however my good friend and I are 99% positive that we’re going to see Dylan Carlson for Trevor Rogers by 12 months’s finish; it simply feels too Cardinals to not occur
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2:59Ben Clemens: Oh I might completely see this!
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2:59Jerry: How good has Nootbaar’s protection in heart been? I don’t actually perceive the superior defensive stats.
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3:00Ben Clemens: the brief reply: not sufficient knowledge to say, nevertheless it actually appears tremendous
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3:00Ben Clemens: Ever so barely longer reply: I believe he’s most likely a beneath common however not by a lot CF, or a great nook man
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3:00Exasperated Rangers fan: Answer a single rangers query??????????????
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3:01Ben Clemens: I’ll reply this one
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3:01Ben Clemens: Um, there was one about Chris Young getting credit score for what JD did, and completely yeah
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3:01Anonymous Coward: Does Spencer Strider have have a house run drawback? (Does it depend as an issue if he’s nonetheless nice?)
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3:02Ben Clemens: I do assume he’s gonna have just a little little bit of HR vulnerability all the time
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3:02Ben Clemens: not a ton of various pitches and fastball-reliant
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3:02Ben Clemens: however like, yeah, not a lot of an issue
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3:02Ben Clemens: he’s so good
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3:02Smiliing Politely: Lance Lynn says no haha
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3:02Ben Clemens: Haha yeah, there are issues after which there are PROBLEMS
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3:02Jason: Ben, is there any hope for Spencer Torkelson going ahead? Seems like he has proven flashes this 12 months (extra so than in ’22). I need to imagine he, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Jake Rogers are the nucleus of a younger crew that may method .500 subsequent 12 months…and due to this fact contend within the AL Central
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3:02Ben Clemens: Man, I don’t know what to make of Tork at this level
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3:03Ben Clemens: he’s completely proven flashes, that’s an effective way of placing it
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3:03Ben Clemens: he has 15 bombs in a troublesome park, it’s not like he’s been unplayable
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3:05Ben Clemens: I believe that his energy being extra + than ++ has mattered greater than I anticipated
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3:05Ben Clemens: like, that was purported to be his carrying device however 83rd percentile max exit velo is just not what I hoped for
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3:06Ben Clemens: I believe he’s gonna find yourself as a hitter who constantly posts wRC+’s above 100 however beneath 120, and that’s kinda disappointing given my hopes
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3:06Dan: I’m inquisitive about your ideas on this. I, as most of us right here do, yearn for baseball all 12 months however I discovered myself dispirited as a Mets followers attending their sport on Friday in opposition to the Orioles. In your opinion, is it nonetheless price going to video games when attainable regardless of probably seeing AAA gamers like Peterson, Curtiss, Reid Garrett, DJ Stewart, Rafael Ortega, and so on since there are solely so many video games per season? Or is that this a time when it’s merely not price going as a result of it’s a lot much less pleasing than earlier than? I do know that is very subjective, however to learn your ideas
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3:06Ben Clemens: I believe this actually comes all the way down to what you’re searching for in your baseball expertise
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3:07Ben Clemens: i LOVE going to video games as a fan, I am going to minor league video games with no clue who the prospects are, no questions requested. I’m an enormous fan of the crack of the bat and the way meals tastes at hte stadium and all of that
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3:07Ben Clemens: I went to a ton of Mets video games in ’17 and ’18 once they had been trash down the stretch and had enjoyable
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3:07Ben Clemens: But it actually relies upon what your expectations are
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3:07Guest: How do your expectations for Andrew Vaughn evaluate to Tork?
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3:08Ben Clemens: so I had Vaughn as much less of a pure energy man and hopefully extra spray to all fields hitter, assume what folks thought Freddie Freeman was earlier than he took just a few extra steps
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3:08Ben Clemens: like, early-career Freeman earlier than he changed into god
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3:09Ben Clemens: I believe that's most likely out of the query. He doesn’t have the plate disciplin to make it work, for those who’re searching for a one-line reply
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3:09Dan: I are usually the identical and simply love being at video games, however thought I is likely to be loopy after tickets for upcoming video games. Always admire your opinions on the fan expertise
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3:09Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, I believe a number of followers are there as a result of they need the playoff chase
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3:09Ben Clemens: I really like that too, to be clear
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3:10Ben Clemens: however the marginal quantity of followers is clearly down, and possibly that hits ticket pricdes extra?
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3:10Guest: Regarding the padres: generally actually good groups simply get loopy unfortunate, and issues simply don’t click on proper. Don’t assume there’s something inherently flawed concerning the crew. 2018 nats are one other instance of this
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3:10Ben Clemens: Yeah, typically concur with this
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3:10Ben Clemens: in the event that they make the plyaoffs, nobody goes to need to face them
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3:10carl: simply assume, if the guardians by accident developed a hitter that might hit hrs, they may then commerce them for any individual who doesn’t
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3:11Ben Clemens:
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3:11Tom: Big weekend from the Mariners… They moved their constant nearer for small items and go on a streak.  Do you assume they may make the playoffs once more?
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3:11Ben Clemens: I can’t discuss myself into it
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3:11Ben Clemens: I believe the ALE groups are simply too good
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3:11Kodai Senga: Will I be traded or go away the Mets when my possibility comes and what are the 5 almost certainly groups to signal or purchase me?
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3:11Ben Clemens: I believe the almost certainly final result is that he opts out
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3:12Ben Clemens: He seems to be like a stable #2 starter to me
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3:12Ben Clemens: Obviously we’ll get to see two extra years of that, but when he’s roughly this degree, he’ll get greater than 2/30 at age 33
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3:12Appa Yip Yip: Re: good groups being unfortunate, gaze upon the Blue Jays RISP numbers and check out to not claw your eyes out on the eldritch horrors contained therein
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3:13Ben Clemens: I’m not saying that I take pleasure in these unusual failures
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3:13Ben Clemens: They’re no enjoyable whenever you’re dwelling them
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3:13Ben Clemens: But I really like that the material of baseball consists of this expertise
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3:13Ben Clemens: It’s good life coaching. “How can this arbitrary and unfair factor be taking place to me? It have to be one thing unhealthy I did’
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3:13Ben Clemens: actually relatable feeling
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3:13Liam: How a lot does org growth ability vs. simply random variance play into how a prospect pans out? clearly unattainable to reply, however when it comes to groups “whiffing” on guys in drafts… like is it simply far more of random development of an 18 12 months outdated than it's some particular sauce that the dodgers, astros and so on. have?
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3:14Ben Clemens: I believe it’s each, which is an unsatisfying reply, however I believe you need to take a look at draft hauls in huge knowledge units to essentially hvae an amazing thought
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3:14Ben Clemens: the Dodgers/Astros/Cardinals/Rays have accomplished a extremely good job at getting manufacturing out of gamers they draft within the broad sweep of issues, even excluding single gamers
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3:15Ben Clemens: however in each particular person case, there’s big variance
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3:15bb: 17 y/o Ethan Salas placing up an 840 OPS in A ball appears fairly spectacular
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3:15Ben Clemens: Yeah underratedly superior season
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3:15Ben Clemens: I really feel like that is considerably just like when Jackson Chourio burst onto the scene final 12 months
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3:16Ben Clemens: worse numbers however a 12 months youthful and more durable place
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3:16Guest: say one thing good about Juan Soto, who folks stated imply issues about for greater than a 12 months. Will he end opsing over 1000 ? I say sure
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3:16Ben Clemens: Oh man, I really like saying good issues about Juan Soto
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3:16Ben Clemens: He’s my favourite participant to observe within the non-Ohtani division, I simply love how he turns an at-bat into theatrics
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3:17Ben Clemens: additionally, sure, he’s among the best gamers within the sport and one way or the other a lightning rod
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3:17Pat: Sometimes going to video games when your crew is out of it's simply extra enjoyable..You don't have any expectations & can simply benefit from the sport. One of essentially the most enjoyable instances I’ve ever had at a sport was with my son,  shopping for fifth row seats behind residence plate for $35 at Comerica when Detroit was out of it in September & watching Corey Kluber throw a 2 hitter & dominate a nasty Tigers crew. Man, in opposition to boy stuff
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3:17Ben Clemens: Sometimes, for positive
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3:18Ben Clemens: I've a number of good reminiscences of meaningless September baseball
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3:18Ben Clemens: I significantly have this reminiscence, I can’t let you know what month final 12 months however second half of the season, the place Zac Gallen simply carved the Giants up as a part of his scoreless streak
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3:18Ben Clemens: pleasant to observe
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3:18Ben Clemens: that stated… my favourite dwell baseball expertise was Game 5 of the 2012 NLDS between the Nats and Cardinals
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3:19Ben Clemens: excessive stakes baseball can also be nice
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3:19Dan: You should guess what number of WS Ohtani will play in. How far more confidence would you might have for those who might guess after he indicators a brand new contract verse instantly after this season ends?
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3:19Ben Clemens: a ton extra after he indicators a brand new deal, simply particularly due to the Dodgers query
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3:19RTJ: talking of fan experiences – went to the Cubs Braves sport yesterday and – in addition to being pleasant as an entire – actually loved watching Ronald Acuna race a ballboy to choose up a foul ball whereas he was ready on deck. Little stuff you don’t see on TV (most likely) and simply present how a lot enjoyable these guys are having
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3:19Ben Clemens: the Braves are all the time having a ton of enjoyable
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3:20Ben Clemens: different enjoyable in-person groups for me: DBacks, Rays, Cubs
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3:20Ben Clemens: I’m restricted by who I’ve seen in individual this 12 months however I favored all of these
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3:21Billy’s Beans: Now that the A’s stadium has been determined, when will we see TB determine the place to play?
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3:22Ben Clemens: “settled”
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3:22Tony Plush: I don’t know what the small pattern “numbers” say, however eye test-wise Salvy Perez has seemed fairly darn competent at 1B!
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3:22Ben Clemens: I don’t even remotely imagine small pattern defensive metrics at first base
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3:22Ben Clemens: he appears first rate to me however I’ve seen like two video games price
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3:22slew(Seattle): Re: Civale, It nearly looks as if the Guardians stated to themselves: “Well, we’ve been developing above average starting pitching, so we can count on it continuing to happen – trade him!”
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3:23Ben Clemens: though you didn’t add “Now let’s go out and find the best bat-only prospect who doesn’t hit for any power”
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3:23>this man<: In your non-expert or knowledgeable opinion, why does it *appear* like so many profitable Asian Major League hitters wrestle once they come stateside? obviouslty not Ichiro, Matsui, Ohtani, and even SHin Soo Choo I might say. Or to place it in a different way, why did these guys make hay whereas Fukudome, Seiya Suzuki, and a few others have actually not impressed
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3:23Ben Clemens: I’m guessing that it’s simply random
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3:24Ben Clemens: you can say the identical about draftees from Arizona STate
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3:25Ben Clemens: why have guys like Spencer Torkelson and Alika Williams (first spherical picks in 2020) struggled whereas Kole Calhoun and Jason Kipnis exceeded expectations?
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3:25MilwaukeeBeerJays: Tampa has come again to earth  fairly a bit. Who scares you within the.playoffs extra: jays, rays or O’s?
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3:25Ben Clemens: Jays I believe, you possibly can think about them simply turning out the lights with Gausman and Good Berrios, with a ton of hitting to go along with that
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3:25Dexter: Has the Chisholm to CF been successful? What precisely is his ceiling?
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3:26Ben Clemens: It’s too quickly to say, however I’m not optimistic as a result of he’s all the time been harm inclined and that’s accelerated this 12 months
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3:26Ben Clemens: Sometimes the damage and tear of heart is just not good for you
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3:27Ben Clemens: In phrases of his skill to adapt to heart, yeah, his routes and reactions have improved markedly
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3:27Ben Clemens: I keep in mind watching an April sport the place Keith Hernandez was shocked by how unhealthy his jumps had been
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3:27Ben Clemens: and now he seems to be loads higher
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3:27Ben Clemens: however he can’t keep on the sphere
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3:27slew(Seattle): Hit enter earlier than the remainder of the remark: …..and I believe the Guardians banking on the event pipeline all the time being full is silly. They’re a busted pitching prospect or two from being actually terrible.
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3:28Ben Clemens: Yep to this too!
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3:28Ben Clemens: I believe it’s a dangerous technique
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3:28Ben Clemens: that stated, you most likely must take dangerous methods for those who’re going to attempt to make the playoffs yearly whereas operating a miniscule payroll
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3:29Ben Clemens: I believe that the final view that groups ought to decrease danger is flawed. There are instances to embrace danger and check out methods with huge payoffs, and I believe buying and selling Civale is an effective exmaple of that, even when I don’t love Manzardo as a return
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3:29Ben Clemens: likewise the Rays had been in an amazing spot to scale back danger by including Civale
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3:29Ben Clemens: I consider that commerce as a danger switch, the Rays had been keen to damp volatility and the Guardians most likely need just a little
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3:29Ben Clemens: what number of years of some slap hitters and Jose Ramirez can one crew deal with?
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3:30Henceforth: Will Tink Hence be on the opening day roster for the playing cards subsequent season? If so what are your expectations for his efficiency?
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3:30Ben Clemens: I don't assume he might be
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3:30Ben Clemens: largely as a result of I believe they need to handle his innings
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3:30Ben Clemens: He’s solely thrown 66 this 12 months, he’s not gonna immediately throw 180 subsequent 12 months
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3:30>this man<: That’s truthful I simply didnt know if there was “a thing” they don't seem to be doing/doing
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3:30Ben Clemens: Oh yeah…. nothing springs to thoughts
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3:30Ben Clemens: It was the case that velocity was meaningfully decrease in NPB however that’s been much less true lately
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3:31Stephen: Not a query however including on] the perfect factor about groups just like the Mets being out of it's how low cost the tickets have gotten. My brother is on the town together with his household and you may get fairly good seats for below $30 together with charges and my niece and nephew are too younger to care that the Mets traded away all their good gamers. But for my private expertise, I don’t take pleasure in going to video games when the Yankees are unhealthy and aren’t anticipating to win.
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3:31Ben Clemens: That was not hte smartest thing after I had a 20-game ticket bundle, b/c I favored reselling the massive video games and getting two worse video games for my cash and that was powerful once they sucked
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3:31Ben Clemens: an ebbing tide lowers all boats
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3:31Ben Clemens: however yeah, it’s nice for those who’re not dwelling and dying with the crew’s possibilities
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3:31Guest: The Guardians are good at creating pitchers. The Giants are good at super-platooning. The Astros are good at knowledge to seek out pitchers. The Red Sox are good at____?
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3:32Ben Clemens: I believe they’re fairly good at getting essentially the most out of the roster they've
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3:32Ben Clemens: they match collectively some in contrast to elements seemingly fairly effectively yearly
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3:32Sam: Do the tigers stretch Skubal out to 6innings this 12 months? Have you checked out his residence/street splits? Guy will need to have the comfiest mattress within the Detroit suburbs
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3:32Ben Clemens: I hadn’t however now I've, dang yeah
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3:32Ben Clemens: He must be a Serta (or Purple or no matter) spokesperson
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3:33Ben Clemens: or do the Mookie Betts factor the place he travels with a ton of stuff in order that he can regulate his physique extra
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3:33>this man<: Re Red Sox are good at getting most out of their roster- does that make them the ALE Brewers?
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3:33Ben Clemens: If it weren’t for the Rays, sure
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3:33bb: does managing a younger pitchers workload have any precise proof of working?  or is it simply “that seems like something that would be a good idea, lets do that”
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3:33Ben Clemens: I'm undoubtedly not following the slicing fringe of analysis right here. I believe it's undoubtedly true that vast will increase in workload are riskier than gradual ramp-ups
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3:33Ben Clemens: however the entire thought of bubble wrapping somebody is at odds with the truth that pitching is inherently harmful
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3:34Ben Clemens: like, in your arm
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3:34Board Game Enjoyer: CJ Abrams – is there a change or two to level at for why he’s been purple sizzling these days?  Is it so simple as “he was 21 last season, give him some time”?
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3:34Ben Clemens: nothing stands out to me
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3:34Ben Clemens: I imply, I believe that is kinda who he's, there’s not likely far more energy to get to, and I don’t assume he’s ever going to stroll a lot
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3:35Ben Clemens: however he can hit
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3:35RTJ: The Mrs. was watching a sport with me and requested me a query I’m ashamed to confess I used to be befuddled by: Why are there no feminine umpires within the MLB (at the least to my data)?
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3:35Ben Clemens: I imply…. I believe the reply is simply that sports are actually sexist?
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3:35Ben Clemens: why aren’t there extra feminine sportswriters, or commentators? why does Jessica Mendoza get slammed when A Rod will get a go on a relative foundation?
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3:36Ben Clemens: Why does MLB store constantly have 23 choices for stuff for males and two for girls?
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3:36Ben Clemens: I'll say, it’s getting higher. I obtained my spouse a very nice Giants sweater (from the Erin Andrews assortment, which apparently exists) this 12 months
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3:36Ben Clemens: That was not an possibility just a few years in the past
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3:36DetroitBeisbolKats: How unhealthy did Detroit blow the commerce deadline?  ERod and relievers to maneuver and solely removed Lorenzen.  Also, why dont they kick tires on AAAA guys like Hiura or Adell? Not just like the crew is competing anytime quickly and would possibly get fortunate like JD Martinez repair.
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3:37Ben Clemens: It was not nice! Largely the protecting relievers factor, the most important error within the E Rod fiasco was simply that they didn’t take extra time
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3:37Ben Clemens: like, try this two days earlier than the deadline and you may pivot
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3:37The Batman: Is it attainable that the Mariners can solely be really good if their complete fanbase activates them? I do know this isn’t true, however generally it looks as if they must be a “nobody believes in us!” crew to make it work. Also: MOP.
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3:38Ben Clemens: the crew town wants, not the one it deserves
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3:38Danny: any ideas on the present positional changes? I’ve seen just a few fascinating items suggesting that the unfold is simply too huge and the 1b/dh penalty must be lowered
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3:38Ben Clemens: That is my suspicion as effectively. When I attempted to duplicate the numbers by place switchers within the majors  utilizing OAA knowledge, I obtained solutions that had been surprisingly clsoe to the changes we use
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3:39Ben Clemens: But with an enormous grain of salt: 1b/different place switchers are simply uncommon and bizarre
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3:39Ben Clemens: and DH, I imply, that’s very laborious to deal with
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3:39Ben Clemens: I simply have a tough time believing the variety of runs within the 1b/DH changes significantly
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3:39Ben Clemens: Alright, this has been a protracted and fruitful chat, although I want there have been extra gaming/cooking questions, I assume I’ve gone too mainstream
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3:39Ben Clemens: Something to aspire to subsequent time
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3:40Ben Clemens: I’m off to go eat some doubanjiang and vinegar marinated tofu
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3:40Ben Clemens: And then play a board sport tonight
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3:40Ben Clemens: Gotta keep on model
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3:40Ben Clemens: Have an amazing week, everybody, discuss to you once more subsequent week
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Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.

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Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com

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