I don’t have a lot in the way in which of groundbreaking evaluation for you right this moment. I’m right here to jot down about one thing that’s fairly apparent: Brandon Woodruff continues to be awfully good. You in all probability knew that already with out fancy stats or gory math. The Milwaukee right-hander owns a profession 3.08 ERA and three.18 FIP. He has been good at nearly each level since his rookie 12 months in 2017. Still, I’d like to handle a number of of the explanations that his continued success is a giant deal. So till I get to the half the place I can dazzle you with numbers, I'll not less than attempt to drop in some enjoyable information right here and there.

Woodruff initially hit the IL with shoulder irritation again in April, after making simply two begins that had been — cease me in the event you’ve heard this earlier than — superb. His shoulder irritation turned out to be a Grade 2 subscapular pressure. The subscapularis is the biggest muscle in your rotator cuff, and medical doctors can diagnose a subscapular tear utilizing three exams with wonderful names: the lift-off take a look at, the bear hug take a look at, and the stomach press take a look at. Sadly, none of those exams is kind of as enjoyable because it sounds.

Woodruff missed 4 months (the typical gestation interval of an armadillo). Since returning on August 6, he’s made seven begins, operating a 2.22 ERA and a 3.54 FIP and averaging 10.07 strikeouts per 9 innings. You may make a powerful argument that he was one of the best pickup any crew made on the commerce deadline. He’s additionally been working progressively deeper into video games, a pattern that culminated in his first profession full sport on Monday, when he shut out the Marlins on six hits and one stroll. Here are his inning totals from these seven begins in chronological order: 5, 6.1, 5.1, 6, 6, 7, 9.

As Woodruff has pitched solely 9 occasions this 12 months and 7 occasions since his return, it’s laborious to make any huge conclusions from his numbers. He’s operating a 1.93 ERA with a .189 BABIP that’s the second-lowest amongst all pitchers who’ve thrown not less than 50 innings and an absurd 94.1% strand fee that’s second-highest. That’s clearly not sustainable. He has a 2.75 xERA, 89 DRA-, 3.53 FIP, and three.65 xFIP; the final three numbers are all of the worst since his rookie 12 months, however they’re nonetheless lots good. The regression monster will come for Woodruff ultimately, nevertheless it gained’t flip him right into a pumpkin. Incidentally, the phrase ‘pumpkin’ got here to English from the French phrase pompone. Before it received the Ok, it was pronounced ‘pumpion,’ which I feel we are able to all agree is fairly enjoyable.

Still, there are a few indicators that I’m fascinated with watching. First, Woodruff’s contact high quality metrics have now taken a soar within the unsuitable path in every of the final two seasons:

Brandon Woodruff Is Getting Hit Harder

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Over the course of three seasons, his common exit velocity and hard-hit fee have gone from wonderful to common to borderline unhealthy. But check out the three columns on the appropriate. Despite permitting all that additional laborious contact, Woodruff’s barrel fee is about the identical, and each his wOBA and anticipated wOBA are higher than they’ve ever been, even after we focus particularly on hard-hit balls. Some of that is due to the distribution: extra hard-hit grounders and fewer hard-hit fly balls. Some is trickier to elucidate.

This 12 months, 38% of Woodruff’s fly balls and line drives have been pulled, up greater than 12 proportion factors from final season. They’ve additionally been hit greater than two miles per hour tougher and traveled greater than 15 ft farther. This needs to be a recipe for catastrophe, but his xwOBA on these air balls is up solely 61 factors from final season, and his wOBA is definitely down. The clarification for this begins with the truth that all of these exit velocity features got here on line drives. And right here’s the factor about line drives: they don’t go for homers all that usually, and so they normally fall in for hits anyway.

Brandon Woodruff’s Line Drives and Fly Balls

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

I don’t know to what extent a pitcher can really management this, but when I’m Brandon Woodruff, I’m completely happy to funnel laborious contact into line drives and away from fly balls. Why ought to I care in case your surefire double hits the wall 2.3 mph tougher? In distinction, Woodruff’s common exit velocity on fly balls is down barely this season, and his launch angle is approach up, coinciding with a soar in popup fee. He is working up within the zone extra typically this season, and to this point it’s led to far more manageable contact when batters elevate the ball. There’s in all probability a little bit of luck occurring right here, too, and it may possibly’t damage that Milwaukee’s protection ranks first in OAA and second in DRS.

Woodruff can also be getting extra extension than ever on almost all of his pitches and has dropped his launch level barely. The latter is the continuation of an extended pattern:

The additional inch or so of extension has stored Woodruff’s perceived velocity precisely the identical because it was final 12 months at 96.5 mph, despite the fact that his precise velocity has dropped by 0.4 mph. His four-seamer has additionally traded half an inch of run for half an inch of experience, and his breaking pitches are dropping much less as properly:

Four-Seam and Breaking Stuff+

As you may see, Stuff+ likes this tradeoff for his four-seamer, however not a lot for his breaking stuff. Since vertical motion is normally the important thing to swing-and-miss, it’s not shocking that Woodruff’s whiff fee is up on the four-seamer and down on the breaking balls. So far that swap has been price it, and there's one profit to having much less break in your curve and slider: it’s simpler to throw them for strikes.

Woodruff’s Breaking Balls

SOURCE: Baseball Savant

Woodruff has drastically elevated the variety of breaking balls he throws within the zone, and all of the known as strikes have greater than made up for the whiffs. Still, throwing these breaking pitches within the zone has additionally led to a spike in touch high quality.

In all, Woodruff has traded some walks for some strikeouts and managed an enormous soar in touch high quality. I don’t know if he’ll maintain pitching the way in which he has been by way of his first 9 begins, but when he does, sooner or later all these additional hard-hit balls will possible meet up with him to some extent. But once more, if Woodruff simply sees the outcomes his FIP thinks he ought to have, he’ll be operating a 3.54 ERA. This 12 months, solely 29 pitchers have thrown not less than 100 innings with an ERA higher than 3.54. The Brewers would completely take that model of Woodruff down the stretch and into the playoffs.

That brings me to my ultimate level. As Ben Clemens documented again when the postseason schedule got here out, the variety of off-days within the calendar implies that rotational depth is much less vital this 12 months. Even if the NLDS and NLCS go the complete 5 and 7 video games, an NL crew may get by way of to the World Series with out utilizing its fourth starter greater than as soon as. That’s nice information for a crew with a dominant prime three like Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta. Over every of their most up-to-date begins, that trio has allowed a mixed eight hits and one run. I do know I wouldn’t wish to face these three in October.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com