Top Prospects Series

Below is an evaluation of the prospects within the farm system of the Chicago Cubs. Scouting stories had been compiled with info supplied by business sources in addition to our personal observations. This is the third yr we’re delineating between two anticipated reduction roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see within the “position” column under: MIRP for multi-inning reduction pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning reduction pitchers. The ETAs listed typically correspond to the yr a participant needs to be added to the 40-man roster to keep away from being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual changes are made the place they appear applicable, however we use that as a rule of thumb.

A fast overview of what FV (Future Value) means will be discovered right here. A a lot deeper overview will be discovered right here.

All of the ranked prospects under additionally seem on The Board, a useful resource the positioning affords that includes sortable scouting info for each group. It has extra particulars (and up to date TrackMan knowledge from varied sources) than this text and integrates each group’s checklist so readers can examine prospects throughout farm methods. It will be discovered right here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by sort and listed so as of desire inside every class.

Fringe InfieldersBJ Murray Jr., 3BRafael Morel, 3BPedro Ramirez, INFLuis Verdugo, 3BEd Howard, MIFFabian Pertuz, INF

Murray has the very best stick of this group, however he’s the worst defender. The 23-year-old Bahamian is presently hitting fairly properly at Tennessee. Rafael Morel’s brother, Chris, is out-slugging his method flaws on the huge league stage proper now. Meanwhile, Rafael is having a fairly stable yr at Low-A after he repeated the advanced in 2022, however he’s nonetheless hanging out slightly greater than I’m comfy with, which saved him from the 35+ part. Ramirez had an enormous advanced line final yr, however my eyeball report was “5 bat with 3 power and no physical projection,” which makes it robust to profile until you play shortstop. Verdugo can actually decide it, however he has moved off quick and at greatest has a 30 bat. Poor Ed Howard is again from extreme damage and appears extremely rusty on either side of the ball. Pertuz is a scrappy little Colombian infielder who performed his ass off through the WBC, however he hasn’t had an OBP over .300 in affiliated ball since 2019.

Young, High-Variance GuysEthan Roberts, LHPSam Thoresen, RHPBrailyn Marquez, LHPYovanny Cruz, RHPBurl Carraway, LHP

Roberts had TJ late in 2022 and may very well be again late this yr, extra seemingly subsequent. He has one of many spinniest fastballs in professional baseball. Thoresen was a $20,000 undrafted free agent out of Minnesota. He sits 93 with two breaking balls that in-office pitch knowledge sorts appear to like, however he’s presently injured. Marquez lastly pitched once more a couple of weeks in the past and has been 92-94. His changeup remains to be good, however he’s misplaced about seven ticks from his heater. I’ve seen Cruz contact 100 with sink however not persistently, and he’s presently harm once more with a forearm pressure. So far the nerds (who, together with me, liked his vertical fastball/curveball combo) have been fallacious about Carraway, and the scouts (a few of whom deliberately nuked his pre-draft grades to attempt to counter their groups’ fashions) have been proper. He was very wild in 2021 and 2022, after which acquired harm.

More Hard Throwers and Depth ArmsAngel Gonzalez, RHPManuel Espinoza, RHPFrankie Scalzo Jr., RHPPorter Hodge, RHPLuke Little, LHPHunter Bigge, RHPChris Clarke, RHP

Gonzalez is sitting 95-96 with a tough, upper-80s slider. Espinoza has the very best probability to begin of this group. He sits 93 and has a median cutter and changeup. Scalzo and his Squidman Palledorous mustache sit 94, with an above-average slider as a part of a four-pitch reduction combine. Hodge (93-94, good curveball) and Little (velo has backed up into the 92-95 mph vary) each have monster extension. Bigge sits 95 with a median slider. Clarke has moved to the bullpen, the place he can lean extra on his nice breaking ball and fewer on his low-90s sinker.

Tough ProfilesFelix Stevens, 1B/OFYonathan Perlaza, LFYohendrick Pinango, LF

Stevens, 23, simply has essentially the most energy of this group. Perlaza and Pinango each make quite a lot of contact however don’t have the pop to be a left field-only man.

System Overview

This system is extremely deep and is fairly comfortably a prime 10 farm proper now. It’s “high end” (prospects within the 40+ FV tier and above) is thicc, particularly with hard-throwing pitchers. Every righty reduction pitcher prospect on the primary part of the checklist is averaging a minimum of 95 mph this season, and several other of the Honorable Mention guys are too. The Cubs haven’t demonstrated a capability to tease something aside from velo out of the majority of their prospects, although. Jordan Wicks got here ready-made and the Cubs helped him throw more durable. They ought to take an method extra like Cleveland within the draft room, choosing pitchers with command and secondary stuff who they might help add velo, as they did Wicks. The inverse can be persevering with to take the Ryan Jensens of the world. Jensen was a very good draft prospect, however he already did the factor the Cubs are good at educating, and he hasn’t progressed in different areas.

The Cubs have a latest observe report of taking a few prep arms in every draft. That’s a high-risk group, and I’m undecided how Chicago’s latest success/failure compares to any kind of league-wide baseline. Let’s undergo them! Jackson Ferris has been wonderful. Nazier Mule acquired harm. Mason McGwire (a $200,000 within the 2022 eighth spherical and Mark’s son) has not been good. Drew Gray acquired harm; he’s now again and appears okay. Dominic Hambley (a $200,000 2021 18th rounder from Victoria, BC who I preferred pre-draft) has struggled. Erian Rodriguez (one other Panamanian righty who got here by means of Georgia Premier Academy and signed for $125,000) is tremendous projectable however isn’t throwing strikes but. Koen Moreno (a $900,000 signee within the 2020 fifth spherical) is absolutely struggling. Is there something to glean from this assortment of fellows? Not but, although it isn’t as if any of them has taken an enormous leap.

Aside from Triantos and a probably rising McGeary, the home draft hasn’t yielded impression hitters on this system. Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ are considerably latest examples, I assume, however not latest sufficient to absolve this problem. Ed Howard’s damage isn’t anybody’s fault and the membership has largely used excessive picks on arms, so that is extra of a draft method problem than a expertise identification one. The excellent news is that this weekend’s draft is loaded with younger hitters, and that’s largely the demo of participant the Cubs are hooked up to at decide quantity 13.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com