With the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on offers lasting 10 and 12 years, respectively, the Dodgers are coming into a brand new period in relation to their headlining superstars — to not take something away from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, each of whom stay at or close to the highest of their respective video games. On Monday, we discovered that the subsequent stage of Dodger baseball may also embrace one other acquainted famous person: The New York Post’s Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman reported that free agent Clayton Kershaw will return to the one staff for which he’s ever pitched.

The precise phrases of the deal — which is pending a bodily on Thursday — have but to emerge at this writing, however USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale reported that the deal is a “one-year, incentive-laden contract,” while The Athletic’s Andy McCullough added that the contract features a participant possibility for 2025. If exercised, that may enable Kershaw to hitch Ohtani — who received’t pitch in 2024 after present process reconstructive surgical procedure on his UCL this previous September — within the Dodgers’ rotation.

Player choices have a tendency to hold benefits in relation to Competitive Balance Tax accounting, a major concern for the Dodgers, who rank second in payroll (each precise and CBT-based) solely to the Mets and are practically $12 million over the fourth-tier tax threshold of $297 million even earlier than including Kershaw’s wage. For instance, Justin Turner’s two-year, $21.7 million cope with the Red Sox final yr referred to as for a base wage of $8.3 million for 2023, then a $13.4 million possibility and $6.7 million buyout. By opting out, Turner made $15 million on a deal whose common annual worth was simply $10.85 million.

Kershaw made $20 million final yr however figures to be assured much less cash for 2024, although bonuses for begins and/or innings might make up among the distinction. The timing of the transfer is extra important than the greenback quantity, as a result of neither the pitcher nor the Dodgers know precisely when the 35-year-old future Hall of Famer will throw his subsequent aggressive pitch. On November 3, he underwent surgical procedure to restore the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder, a process that left him “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer” (as he wrote by way of Instagram) however hardly assured of such a return given the importance of the process. Pulling from what I wrote in relation to the surgical procedure on the time:

The three glenohumeral ligaments (superior, center, and inferior) join the scapula to the humerus. Effectively, they stabilize the ball of the higher arm bone throughout the socket of the shoulder blade. The capsule surrounds the joint and is bolstered by the rotator cuff muscular tissues.

…As greatest we are able to inform from the minimal particulars provided, the surgical procedure doesn’t appear to be immediately associated to his rotator cuff or labrum; such surgical procedures would possibly put him out of motion for a whole season. Capsule surgical procedure is not any small matter, nonetheless, so it’s hardly out of the query that he might be sidelined for a full season as properly, if there are setbacks in his rehab. The excellent news is that doesn’t appear to be the baseline assumption.

Given that, it’s notable that as a result of the Dodgers open their season by taking part in the Padres in Seoul, South Korea on March 20 and 21, they’re allowed to place gamers on the 60-day injured record as of Thursday, February 8. A participant on the 60-day IL doesn’t rely in opposition to the 40-man roster restrict, that means that no corresponding transfer should be made to clear area for Kershaw. Had his return turn into official earlier than that, it will have meant one much less participant the staff might defend. As it's, the staff possible received’t make Ryan Brasier’s two-year deal official till Thursday, both, as soon as they transfer Tommy John surgical procedure recipients Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May to the 60-day IL.

This is the third straight offseason by which Kershaw has re-signed with the Dodgers as a free agent, and as with the final two, the Dallas native weighed the potential for pitching nearer to residence by signing with the Rangers. This time round, they’re defending world champions, however they’re additionally already spending huge cash on three different pitchers rehabbing from main surgical procedures, particularly final yr’s marquee free agent Jacob deGrom, who underwent his second Tommy John process final June and is eying August for his return; midseason acquisition Max Scherzer, who underwent surgical procedure for a herniated disc in mid-December and is focusing on a midsummer return; and December free agent addition Tyler Mahle, who underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final May and may return someday this summer time. For them, including a rehabbing Kershaw made much less sense than including a more healthy model would have in years previous, notably with the staff affected by the Diamond Sports Group’s chapter and anticipated to have their native tv income diminished by as a lot as 15% for 2024.

Whether he pitches past 2024 or not, Kershaw’s return to the fold offers him the possibility to craft a extra dignified exit than he would have if he’d left the Dodgers this winter. In Game 1 of final yr’s Division Series, he couldn’t get any of his pitches to work reliably, retired simply one of many eight Diamondbacks he confronted whereas being charged with six runs, and was unable to articulate his plans for the longer term after the Dodgers had been swept, telling reporters, “I don’t know how to answer that right now.”

As previously, the Dodgers revered Kershaw’s want to take the time to weigh his choices, remaining in contact with the staff as he went via surgical procedure and plotted out his subsequent steps. “His rehab is coming along really well,” mentioned supervisor Dave Roberts on the the staff’s fan fest on Saturday. “I think his thought process right now is dominate the rehab process and get something done when it makes sense.”

When he was obtainable in 2023, Kershaw typically pitched fairly properly, posting a 2.46 ERA in 131.2 innings and making his tenth NL All-Star staff. Left shoulder soreness despatched him to the IL earlier than he might pitch within the All-Star Game, nonetheless, and after lacking six weeks, he threw simply 36.1 innings in eight post-injury begins, with the standard of his stuff (as measured by each the Stuff+ and PitchingBot fashions) and his outcomes each noticeably down. Picking up a desk I made in November:

Clayton Kershaw by way of Stuff+ and PitchingBot

Stuff+ scores are normalized to a mean of 100, PitchingBot scores are normalized to a 20–80 scouting scale.

Scratch the floor beneath his tidy ERA — which was only a hair under his profession mark of two.48, and truly decreased after his absence — and also you’ll discover some unsettling indicators. Kershaw’s 4.03 FIP was his highest mark since his 2008 rookie season, his 3.82 xERA his highest of the Statcast period, his 7.6% stroll fee his highest since 2010, his 18.5% strikeout-to-walk differential his lowest since ’12, and so forth. Considering his post-injury splits (4.61 xERA, 5.40 FIP, plus the pitch high quality metrics above), it isn’t so shocking he acquired knocked round within the postseason; certainly, it’s honest to wonder if he ought to have been on the market in any respect given his situation.

When he does return to motion, Kershaw will be part of a rotation that’s been radically reshaped for the reason that center of final May. The Springfield Nuclear Power Plant softball staff caught collectively extra carefully than the quintet that began for the Dodgers from May 13–17:

A Starting Five Scattered to the Four Winds Since Mid-May

That desk doesn’t even embrace Lance Lynn, whom the Dodgers acquired from the White Sox on July 30 and who pitched so unimpressively after changing Syndergaard that the staff declined his $18 million possibility; he signed a one-year, $10 million cope with the Cardinals.

As for the brand new look, along with Yamamoto, whom the Dodgers signed to a 12-year, $325 million deal final month, the staff traded for Tyler Glasnow, who signed a four-year, $110 million extension as a part of the deal, then added James Paxton on a one-year, $7 million deal. Walker Buehler, who underwent late-2022 Tommy John surgical procedure, will return in May, because the Dodgers need to restrict his workload with a watch in direction of having him obtainable in October; Emmet Sheehan, a rookie final yr, will possible take his spot. The solely starter from the tip of final season who will probably be returning to his put up instantly is Bobby Miller, contemporary off a stellar rookie marketing campaign.

That’s half a dozen pitchers proper there for what could be a six-man rotation, not less than at occasions. Righties Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, and Kyle Hurt will function depth at Triple-A Oklahoma City, with lefty Ryan Yarbrough obtainable to supply size as a starter or bulk pitcher as properly. With May hoping to return in some unspecified time in the future after the All-Star break, and Kershaw additionally coming again, the Dodgers ought to be capable to mix-and-match their approach round so many pitchers with damage and workload issues. Ultimately, they need to be capable to assemble a stronger playoff rotation than final yr, when Kershaw, Miller, and Lynn mixed for simply 4.2 innings in opposition to the Diamondbacks.

Upon returning, Kershaw will resume his pursuit of three,000 strikeouts, in all probability the final main milestone inside his attain. He’s 56 strikeouts away from turning into the twentieth pitcher to achieve that plateau, and could be simply the fourth southpaw to take action after Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, and CC Sabathia. Former teammate Zack Greinke is 21 strikeouts away from 3,000, and will beat Kershaw to the milestone if he decides to pitch in 2024. Both would be part of Scherzer and Justin Verlander among the many energetic pitchers in that membership, although any approach you slice it, all 4 are headed for Cooperstown, nearly definitely on the primary poll. This determination leaves intact Kershaw’s likelihood to turn into simply the seventh post-World War II pitcher to achieve the Hall after spending his complete profession with one staff, after Whitey Ford (Yankees 1950–67), Sandy Koufax (1955–66), Don Drysdale (1956-69), Bob Gibson (Cardinals 1959–75), Jim Palmer (Orioles 1965–84), and Mariano Rivera (Yankees 1995–2013).

Given their star energy and their depth, the Dodgers didn’t have to retain Kershaw with a purpose to be heavy favorites to win the National League West. While it wasn’t important from a aggressive standpoint, it’s nonetheless a welcome little bit of preserved continuity within the face of modifications. With the retirement of Adam Wainwright, the returning Kershaw turns into the longest-tenured participant together with his present staff, beating out Salvador Perez, who joined the Royals group 4 months after Kershaw was drafted in 2006. Still, it wouldn’t imply a lot if Kershaw couldn’t assist the staff. By re-signing him, the Dodgers have added a pitcher who, even amid the accidents which have restricted him to a mean of 127 innings since 2021, has remained an above-average pitcher, one who’s nonetheless able to producing thrills.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com