Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 6/1/23

12:00 Dan Szymborski: Greetings! I've a 1 PM appointment, so fairly strict on time at the moment Read more

12:00 CK: I seen your Bengal reference and I admire it Read more

12:00 Dan Szymborski: I made one? Read more

12:01 Em: Do you suppose that first basemen would get fewer hamstring accidents, since they must be versatile to obtain throws from the opposite infielders? Read more

12:01 Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided, I’m not skilled sufficient on the human physique to know why this impact, if it exists, would possibly exist Read more

12:01 Dan Szymborski: however it is likely to be itneresting to check precise hamstring accidents by place Read more

12:05 Dan Szymborski: Sorry, somebody at door Read more

12:05 Tacoby Bellsbury: Why has DJ LeMahieu’s strikeout fee skyrocketed? Is it fixable? Read more

12:06 Dan Szymborski: OK, who discovered response icons? Read more

12:06 Dan Szymborski: It’s skyrocketed, nevertheless, his basic plate self-discipline stats haven’t modified grossly Read more

12:06 Dan Szymborski: His contact fee has gone down, however not “double the K rate” quantity Read more

12:07 Dan Szymborski: I’m working a set of zStat numbers tonight for the third of the season, so there'll truly be some readability there Read more

12:08 Leland: Hunter Harvey 2 inning save after Finnegan labored seventh, Leiter Jr. additionally working excessive leverage, Alzolay appears like subsequent in line for saves. Do you suppose Finnegan will get traded? Read more

12:10 Dan Szymborski: You imply to the Cubs? Read more

12:10 Dan Szymborski: I think about the Nats would commerce FInnegan this summer season if somebody’s Read more

12:10 Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit confused, these are two questions proper? Read more

12:10 Wrights_Back: Thoughts on Mets pitching workers? Do they want a starter or one or two relievers to have any shot on the playoffs? Read more

12:11 Dan Szymborski: I believe they nonetheless have a shot even with out! Read more

12:11 Dan Szymborski: But they do want higher fortune there Read more

12:12 Dan Szymborski: If no wholesome+good Scherzer or Verlander, it’s going to be powerful although Read more

12:12 Bippity: Any hope Abreu remembers he was an excellent hitter very not too long ago? Read more

12:12 Dan Szymborski: There’s nonetheless a shot, however as I wrote about again in April, the decline in his exit velocities are *very* worrisome Read more

12:13 Dan Szymborski: As I famous on the time and peeved-at-me Astros followers didn't, one of many traits of earlier Abreu crap-Aprils *nonetheless* concerned him hitting the ball exhausting (besides 2016) Read more

12:14 Dan Szymborski: It’s truly trended properly in final couple of weeks Read more

12:14 Dan Szymborski: however his plate self-discipline modifications are additionally scary – he’s concurrently swinging at fewer good pitches and extra unhealthy ones. Read more

12:15 Dan Szymborski: You’ll see these numbers are usually correlated when modifications are method based mostly – a participant being extra aggressive, for instance, will are likely to see upticks in each, however hopefully a bigger uptick in z-swing than o-swing Read more

12:15 Dan Szymborski: however going the unhealthy method in each is often a foul signal Read more

12:15 Dan Szymborski: and at Abreu’s age, particularly regarding. I want I had bat pace knowledge Read more

12:15 NL solely: Should Gary Sanchez be rostered in two C NL solely leagues at this level? Think he would possibly truly hit? Read more

12:16 Dan Szymborski: Depends how massive the league is de facto! Read more

12:16 Dan Szymborski: I’m undecided he’ll truly hit although Read more

12:16 Dan Szymborski: his BABIP lastly received again to the place it ought to have been final yr and he nonetheless wasn’t excellent Read more

12:17 Dan Szymborski: and he wasn’t actually even killing minor league pitchers Read more

12:17 Guest: What does AI counsel for the quantity of beans in a chili recipe? Read more

12:17 Dan Szymborski: the AI learns from unhealthy chili recipes! Read more

12:17 Curious reader: Do the authors talk every week about what it's they’ll be writing about; has there ever been a scenario through which two writers principally wrote the identical factor? Read more

12:17 Dan Szymborski: We talk in Slack channel what we’re pondering of writing about Read more

12:18 Dan Szymborski: if I’m writing an analogous topic to a bit every week or two earlier than, Meg will double-check to ensure I’m doing one thing completely different sufficient to make it worthwhile Read more

12:18 Dan Szymborski: Like, if Eric and I have been each doing items on Gunnar Henderson, we’d take very completely different approaches Read more

12:19 Dan Szymborski: So typically if my projected content material is simply too near one thing another person is written, I’ll return to the drafting board and consider a further spin that I can do this no one else has but completed Read more

12:20 Dan Szymborski: It’s essential to us to *not* replicate content material Read more

12:20 Dan Szymborski: from ourselves or anybody else! Read more

12:20 Dan Szymborski: Which is why I’ll ensure and embody ZiPS issues at instances even when that’s not the main target of the article; it’s vital to us to offer you guys stuff that may have *one thing* new, be it an opinion or a reality or a projection or no matter Read more

12:21 Dan Szymborski: It’s a small firm and everyone knows one another very properly, so there’s no friction in our slack discussions or dibs on subjects Read more

12:21 Dan Szymborski: As far as I do know: there could possibly be a rash of FUCKING SZYMBORSKI!!!!! non-public messages that I have no idea about, however I don’t learn about them! Read more

12:21 Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Can town of Oakland simply use eminent area on the A’s already? Read more

12:21 Dan Szymborski: Meh Read more

12:22 Dan Szymborski: Ignoring the authorized questions, I personally discover use of it on this sense to be basically immoral. And I don’t approve doing basically immoral issues, even to crappy individuals. Read more

12:23 Droopy Slider: Hi Dan! How does a participant’s precise season manufacturing influence ZIPS ROS projections over the course of the season? How does the burden given to precise season manufacturing change because the season progresses (1/3, 1/2, & 2/3 marks)? Many thanks. Love your work. Read more

12:23 Dan Szymborski: I can let you know how ZIPS does it, although not how Steamer and others do Read more

12:23 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS derives it in-season projections empirically based mostly on participant stats at each date of each season Read more

12:24 Dan Szymborski: For instance, the very first thing ZiPS does in making a projection is to ascertain a really primary baseline Read more

12:25 Dan Szymborski: that differs based mostly on stats – a hitter’s stroll fee will include much more season-to-date data than a hitter’s BABIP. Read more

12:25 Dan Szymborski: after which ZiPS makes changes, within the full-fat mannequin, based mostly on the zStats Read more

12:26 Zac: Trea Turner has been unhealthy. Is it sufficient to meaningfully shift his ZIPs projections but? That contract could possibly be groin-grabbingly horrible if he forgot how one can hit. Read more

12:26 Dan Szymborski: It has already! Read more

12:27 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projected wRC+ has shiifted by like 19 factors within the detrimental since preseason Read more

12:30 Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Robo umps would get rid of catcher framing, making the ability nugatory. This would in all probability see the rise of higher throwing and hitting catchers. This is an efficient trade-off! Read more

12:30 Dan Szymborski: I do know individuals like catching framing being a factor, however I don’t like skillsets being based mostly off of fooling the judges Read more

12:31 Dan Szymborski: Even within the kindest description, catchers “making a positive case for a good pitch” I don’t suppose that the pitch must be half of what's a shiny line judgment Read more

12:32 12 to six: with buying and selling season quickly approaching, would: eddys leonard and landon knack for stroman; or diego cartaya and eddys leonard for giolito and tim anderson ring a bell for the respective groups? Read more

12:33 Dan Szymborski: I don’t suppose this could be sufficient Read more

12:34 Dan Szymborski: Cartaya would possible be a part of any massive commerce I believe Read more

12:34 Dan Szymborski: however I’m undecided the needle has moved *that* a lot for Knack round baseball Read more

12:34 Dan Szymborski: and Leonard isn’t a centerpiece of any deal for an excellent main leaguer Read more

12:34 Guest: If you made an inventory of underrated pitches, Dauri Moreta’s slider needs to be up there, proper? Screwball motion + a lot of whiffs makes it so fascinating, however not many individuals are actually speaking about it. Read more

12:35 Dan Szymborski: Moreta’s is neat as a result of he’s received a couple of completely different spins on it Read more

12:35 Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, however I’d wager he’s method up there in variance of horizontal and vertical motion Read more

12:35 Dan Szymborski: typically it’s kinda used like a 12-6 curve and typically there’s a number of horizontal motion Read more

12:35 Curt: AL East shaping as much as be a enjoyable summer season. Cavalry coming for NYY, Baltimore within the thick and TB making a high tier offense out of skinny air. Which method you see this going? Read more

12:36 Dan Szymborski: I believe the Rays cushion will maintain Read more

12:36 Guest: Alright is Rob Manfred THAT unhealthy? The juiced ball period is a reasonably poor look. There is totally an argument that Astros gamers ought to’ve gotten suspended for his or her scandal. But apart from that, I'd argue that Manfred has had a reasonably profitable reign as commissioner. Avoided dropping video games throughout the lockout, managed to determine some baseball in 2020. Some rule modifications I’m not loopy about, however I can look previous that If he manages to alter the RSN mannequin and finish blackouts, that may be superior. Then once more, he solely does what homeowners need him to do, so possibly they deserve the credit score Read more

12:36 Dan Szymborski: Depends from what viewpoint Read more

12:36 Dan Szymborski: from the homeowners POV he’s respectable Read more

12:36 Dan Szymborski: But I dont’ see what worth he’s delivered to the desk to make the sport total higher for followers Read more

12:39 Cy Tanner: Who will get despatched down, me or Logan? Read more

12:39 Dan Szymborski: Neither ideally Read more

12:40 Dan Szymborski: At this level, I’d be placing Quantrill in lengthy aid/spot begin obligation when McKenzie returns Read more

12:40 Dan Szymborski: he can’t simply bleed 20-30% of his Okay fee yearly Read more

12:41 McGraw45: Padres media rights step one to ending the anti-competitive madness of RSNs? Read more

12:41 Dan Szymborski: Probably. We’ll see the way it shakes out money-wise Read more

12:42 Krusty: NYC Pitcher questions: is Max Scherzer discovering his stride? What do you anticipate going ahead? Gerrit Cole appeared like a CYA candidate in April and… um, not that in May as a result of his homeritis acted up. He’s clearly a entrance finish starter, however I don’t suppose he could be an ace if he blows up this typically (insofar as a distinction exists). What’s your #take? Read more

12:42 Dan Szymborski: His final couple of begins have appeared actually good Read more

12:42 Dan Szymborski: Mad Max Read more

12:42 Dan Szymborski: Though it’s additionally towards Guardians and Rockies, which you must look good towards this yr Read more

12:42 Dan Szymborski: But I believe he’s going the proper course, although I haven’t dug into the nuts and bolts of the final two begins Read more

12:43 Dan Szymborski: I misinterpret homeritis for a second Read more

12:43 Dan Szymborski: and thought it was one other medical factor I hadn’t heard of earlier than, like E-Rod’s pulley Read more

12:44 Dan Szymborski: Homers are usually risky Read more

12:44 Dan Szymborski: I’m truly barely extra anxious that his whiff charges are eroding Read more

12:46 Dutch A’s fan: How can our pitching be this unhealthy?? Read more

12:46 Dan Szymborski: I’m truly a bit stunned Read more

12:47 Dan Szymborski: One issues the A’s are likely to do properly, aided by park, is crank out mediocre fourth/fifth starters like they’re horrible Chuck Lorre sitcoms Read more

12:47 Dan Szymborski: however they’re not discovering these guys this yr Read more

12:47 Dan Szymborski: Normally, you may give the A’s a pile of cream of mushroom soup cans and it’ll have a 4.40 ERA or one thing and 1.1 WAR over a season Read more

12:48 Dan Szymborski: But this season it’s like they’re simply throwing the cans of soup into site visitors at rush hour Read more

12:48 Dan Szymborski: this analogy is getting out of hand Read more

12:48 Dan Szymborski: SOUP IS EVERYWHERE Read more

12:48 Dan Szymborski: CARS ARE CRASHING Read more

12:48 Dan Szymborski: I DONT KNOW HOW I GOT HERE Read more

12:48 Guest: Shockingly, Juan Soto was good at baseball this entire time. Who would’ve thought? Read more

12:48 Jefferson: When does Dan Szymborski take over broadcast rights of an MLB staff? Read more

12:49 Dan Szymborski: I make a cushty residing, however I don't suppose anybody will lengthen me sufficient credit score for that Read more

12:49 Dan Szymborski: and since I would not have a station, I’m undecided I can actually generate income off the published rights Read more

12:49 Endangered Marlin Fan: Obviously Bryan De La Cruz just isn't this good, however he's truly a good participant, proper? Are the Marlins truly allowed to have respectable hitters like this? Read more

12:50 Dan Szymborski: What kinda sucks is that the Marlins by accident fell into him Read more

12:50 Dan Szymborski: They entered the season with neither Sanchez or de la Cruz having full-time jobs Read more

12:51 Dan Szymborski: Becasue Avisail Garcia makes cash Read more

12:52 Freeman/Olson: Is it now time to say the Olson/ATL commerce was a mistake? Freddie Freeman now leads MLB WAR. I believe Alex Anthopoulos is a good GM, however it looks like he ought to have simply given Freeman a sixth yr and never overthought. ZIPs has Freddie at 3.1 WAR in 2025; not precisely falling off a cliff. Read more

12:52 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go THAT far Read more

12:52 Dan Szymborski: and Freeman’s nonetheless at ages the place he’s dangerous year-to-year Read more

12:52 Will: Was simply going to ask a Gunnar query humorous sufficient. He appears to be bettering offensively slightly and positively appears extra comfy at third. Is this simply eye-test or is there something actual behind it? Read more

12:53 Dan Szymborski: He’s actually higher at third than quick. I simply need him to get as a lot time at quick as potential to see if he’s adequate Read more

12:53 Dan Szymborski: Since that's the location with the very best upside Read more

12:53 A Boy Named Yu: Can you please do a ballot for me? Based solely on playability and never specializing in up to date rosters, which one is healthier? MLB The Show 22 or 23? Trying to determine which one to purchase to improve from 16. Read more

12:53 Dan Szymborski: I didn’t play MLB the Show 22! Read more

12:53 Dan Szymborski: I can’t think about 22 performs *higher* because the modifications are usually incremental Read more

12:53 Dan Szymborski: I solely received the cloud gaming working properly sufficient to get again into MLB the Show this yr Read more

12:54 Dan Szymborski: and fortunately, PS5s are actually simple to snag, as a result of I can’t frigging hit a fastball on xbox cloud gaming Read more

12:54 Dan Szymborski: I assumed that my reflexes had simply slowed significantly since 2020! Read more

12:54 Appa Yip Yip: What could be a worse destiny: traded to the Athletics, or traded to the Rockies? Read more

12:54 Dan Szymborski: the previous Read more

12:54 Cave Dameron: How a lot do you tip on takeout? Read more

12:54 Dan Szymborski: 20% Read more

12:54 A Boy Named Yu: Is lasagna a sandwich with cheese and sauce on high? Read more

12:54 Dan Szymborski: provided that you’re consuming it along with your palms Read more

12:55 Dan Szymborski: I dont’ consider a sandwich you eat with a knife and fork remains to be a sandwich Read more

12:55 Dan Szymborski: if you happen to eat a grilled cheese with a knife and a fork, it’s a savory napoleon Read more

12:56 Milwaukee BeerJays: you ever take heed to the band Mastodon? Some of their stuff is like previous metallica the place it’s form of classical music chops clever Read more

12:56 Dan Szymborski: I used to be by no means actually a steel man and my tastes have gotten softer through the years Read more

12:56 Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Fundamentally immoral to show the plaything of a billionaire right into a public good? Way higher than turning poor individuals’s homes right into a freeway. Read more

12:57 Dan Szymborski: Yes. Using eminent area to grab FRIGGING ENTERTAINMENT firms is an abomination Read more

12:57 Dan Szymborski: it’s not both/or Read more

12:57 Dan Szymborski: there’s zero coherent argument {that a} sports franchise is public infrastructure Read more

12:58 Dan Szymborski: and my fellow Baltimore residents hate after I point out this, however Irsay would have been a big goddamn fool to NOT transfer out of the city the second Maryland began hinting about taking part in authorized video games with eminent area. Read more

12:59 A Boy Named Yu: Of the star 1B over the previous decade or so, are you stunned Freeman has outlasted most of them? Read more

12:59 Dan Szymborski: Not actually, he’s typically projected at or close to the highest Read more

12:59 Dan Szymborski: (additionally observe that that is as far into politics as I’m keen to tread) Read more

1:00 Dan Szymborski: Back to Freeman Read more

1:01 Dan Szymborski: In 2017 at 27, Freeman had the second-best rest-of-career WAR projection amongst 1B (behind Bellinger OOPS) Read more

1:02 Dan Szymborski: Even by 2020, Freeman had solely slipped to fourth regardless of coming into his age 30 season Read more

1:02 Dan Szymborski: In 2020 it was Bellinger (56.4, age 24), Alonso (32.0, age 25), and Olson (28.0, age 26) Read more

1:03 Dan Szymborski: On that observe, time for me to go out for an additional wek! Read more

Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a daily visitor on numerous radio exhibits and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Read more

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com Read more

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