The 2024 presidential marketing campaign will happen underneath a troubled economic system, the Congressional Budget Office projected Wednesday, foreseeing slowing progress and rising unemployment.

Growth will dip to lower than half a % within the ultimate quarter of this yr, delivering an annual fee of progress in Gross Domestic Product of lower than 1%, CBO stated.

Things will decide up subsequent yr however progress will nonetheless are available in at simply 1.5%, earlier than topping 2% in 2025.

On the roles entrance the information can be grim.

“Labor market conditions are expected to slacken in the second half of 2023,” CBO stated.

The jobless fee, which has been having fun with report lows because the pandemic eased, will rise from 3.6% now to 4.1% by the top of this yr and 4.7% on the finish of 2024.

By the center of subsequent yr the economic system might be dropping 18,000 jobs a month.

Things will enhance in 2025, as progress returns.

But within the meantime, the slipping economic system will assist to tame inflation. The value index for private consumption expenditures might be 3.3% this yr, falling to 2.6% subsequent yr.

CBO’s projections counsel the nation will keep away from a recession, which had appeared a near-certainty to prognosticators late final yr, however will nonetheless see a major slowing as actual GDP progress goes from 1.4% within the just-completed second quarter to 0.6% this quarter and 0.3% within the ultimate quarter this yr.

The progress is powered by a slowdown in shopper spending, as excessive rates of interest and rising unemployment “cause consumers to pull back” this yr.

“Consumers have drawn from their stockpiles of savings in 2022 and 2023 to support their spending. But rising delinquency rates on credit cards and consumer loans suggest that some earners have exhausted their savings and will have less wherewithal to maintain spending in the face of elevated interest rates and unemployment,” the CBO stated.

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