It’s not fairly proper to say that Fernando Cruz was a late-blooming prospect. That would indicate that he was a prospect, and he wasn’t, at the least not likely. He was picked within the sixth spherical of the 2007 draft as a hitter, however by no means made it out of A-ball in 4 years. He tried pitching after that, and it labored, however not sufficient for the Royals to maintain him. He kicked across the minors, indy ball, and the winter league circuit for greater than a decade. He performed in Puerto Rico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico. He was dwelling a full baseball life, and nearly completely outdoors of affiliated ball. Over the 2021-2022 winter, although, Cruz placed on a present, racking up a 2.03 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 61 innings of labor throughout three leagues and the Caribbean Series.

You can have huge league potential with out pitching in affiliated ball, and the Reds noticed it. They signed Cruz to a minor league deal earlier than the 2022 season and despatched him straight to Triple-A, the place he was top-of-the-line relievers within the minors straight away. He earned a promotion to the massive leagues that September, and he hasn’t appeared again since. Now, at 34, he’s off to top-of-the-line begins of any reliever in baseball in terms of lacking bats. It’s a outstanding story, and he’s a participant price celebrating. How on this planet did he sneak previous everybody for thus lengthy, and the way is he thriving now? I hope I’ll be capable to let you know.

The very first thing that jumps off the web page while you take a look at Cruz’s statistical document is strikeout price. He has a profession 36.5% mark within the majors, the ninth-best mark all time for pitchers with at the least 90 innings. Sure, 9 of the highest 10 are at the moment lively pitchers, and the all-time strikeout price leaderboard is overwhelmingly tilted towards fashionable gamers (shout out to Diamond Pipkins, who struck out 19 batters in 15.2 innings for the 1931 Cleveland Cubs for cracking the highest 25). But even when that is only a listing of efficient fashionable pitchers, Cruz is on that listing!

The subsequent factor that jumps off the web page is that he throws a splitter 44% of the time. It’s not likely a change of tempo; it’s simply his tempo. There’s a easy and efficient plan at work right here. Early depend? Cruz goes to throw you a fastball or cutter, one thing that you just would possibly take for a strike or foul off. Behind within the depend? He’ll keep it up, tilting extra closely towards his fastball as he will get additional behind. But when he will get forward, it’s splittin’ time, and also you don’t wish to attain splittin’ time if you happen to’re hittin’.

An 0-1 depend? Cruz throws his splitter 69% of the time. 0-2? We’re speaking 96% of the time; you would possibly as properly throw the remainder of his arsenal out and solely search for that. He throws it 94% of the time in 1-2 counts, 70% of the time in 2-2 counts, even 67% of the time in 3-2 counts. If there’s a strikeout on the road, you’re nearly actually going to see a splitter. Or, properly, you’re going to get a splitter. I’m unsure Joc Pederson ever noticed this one:

I didn’t choose that pitch by chance. That’s the archetypical Cruz splitter. It’s a strike out of his fingers however turns right into a ball, and there’s primarily no strategy to get a bat on it. Opponents have swung at 40 of Cruz’s splitters out of the strike zone. They’ve missed 34 of them. No one in baseball has a nastier offspeed pitch. Honestly, nobody has a nastier chase pitch, interval, although Nick Lodolo’s curveball at the least comes shut within the knowledge.

OK, that’s neat, however isn’t it a bit small of a pattern for us mathematically inclined varieties? 40 pitches? That’s what number of Lance Lynn throws in a tough inning. We’re gonna want extra knowledge. But excellent news: The additional knowledge just about agrees with the 2024-only model. Exactly two pitchers are lacking bats extra ceaselessly with their out-of-zone offspeed pitches over the previous three years: Félix Bautista and Kodai Senga. That’s top-of-the-line closers in baseball and a man whose splitter is so ridiculous it received its personal nickname. Yeah, I feel that’ll do.

If I have been a hitter, I’d wish to suppose that I may give you a plan to counter this assault. This isn’t a kind of instances the place a pitcher throws principally secondaries, however “mostly” means 60%. Guys like which can be liable to sneak a fastball by you if you happen to sit on their flexible stuff. But there’s no actual risk with Cruz. In 1-2 counts, he’s thrown 29 splitters and two fastballs. He’s solely thrown a single 0-2 fastball. There’s no subtlety right here.

If there’s a bind for hitters, it’s determining whether or not the splitter they get shall be within the zone or within the filth. He’s operating a 30% zone price with the pitch to date this yr, and that’s constant no matter depend. The “always take” plan isn’t computerized when Cruz is succesful, at the least sometimes, of touchdown one for a strike.

On the opposite hand, swinging hasn’t been an awesome counterstrategy. They’re swinging at 77% of Cruz’s in-zone splitters, a good price. In truth, they’re most likely swinging an excessive amount of; that’s roughly league common, and so they’re chasing 45% of the time, a scarily excessive quantity.

The worst of it for hitters is that these in-zone swings haven’t performed them any good. They’re nonetheless swinging and lacking very often, a 3rd of the time this yr and 45% of the time all through his main league profession. When they do make contact, it’s been fairly poor. Cruz has given up precisely one homer on a splitter in his profession, and mockingly sufficient that pitch was outdoors the strike zone. It’s only a laborious one to sq. up; to wit, hitters have squared up six of their 70 swings on the pitch this yr (thanks Statcast!). Even once they do make contact, they’re squaring up lower than 1 / 4 of it. For no matter it’s price, league common in opposition to all splitters is 33.3%.

In different phrases, Cruz’s splitter is likely one of the pitches in baseball that hitters can do the least with. They hardly ever ever make contact, and so they do little injury even once they do. The mixture of excessive swing price – batters swing at roughly 50% of Cruz’s splitters – and poor outcomes on swings is extraordinarily uncommon. The pitch is in elite territory – we’re speaking Yu Darvish’s knuckle curve, Edwin Díaz’s slider, Michael King’s changeup, issues like that. Pitchers merely don’t garner that mixture of frequent and fruitless swings.

Time for a fast apart: I’ve watched a variety of Cruz attempting to determine what makes this pitch so devastating. I didn’t come away with a variety of solutions. It appears vaguely like a variety of different splitters that aren’t almost so good. It’s the slowest splitter within the league by a hair, however it doesn’t dip as a lot as you would possibly anticipate as a result of what little spin he places on the ball imparts some raise. His launch level isn’t significantly unusual. He will get good extension, however nothing outrageous. I feel there’s some deception happening in his supply, and that hitters aren’t choosing it up out of his hand in consequence, however I actually can not determine why from watching him pitch.

So is Cruz the perfect reliever in baseball or one thing? Well, no. He’s completely maxing out this pitch, to be clear. It’s top-of-the-line pitches in baseball, and so he simply throws it on a regular basis. No one throws splitters extra ceaselessly than Cruz does. Few pitchers throw non-fastballs that ceaselessly, and so they’re just about all sliders which have in-zone utility. But there’s a weak point to his plan: He can’t throw the dang factor for a strike.

That 30% zone price I used to be speaking about is fairly dangerous. It’s not final in baseball, however it’s 497th out of 519 secondary pitches which were thrown at the least 40 occasions. There are some actually good pitches in that space – Corbin Burnes’s slider, Zack Wheeler’s curveball, Luis Castillo’s changeup, Framber Valdez’s curveball – however these are pure out pitches and a part of bigger arsenals, not first-and-only choices.

The clear counter to this all-splitters strategy is simply to swing much less. It’s laborious to carry again, clearly. But hitters are more and more managing it. Cruz has an 11.6% stroll price for his main league profession, and it’s an unpleasant 15.5% this yr after an unpleasant three-walk outing on Monday. Give him an opportunity, and Cruz will put a runner on.

Outrageously, hitters don’t appear to care. I perceive defending the plate with two strikes, after all. But let’s put it this fashion: Cruz has thrown 63 pitches in 0-1 and 1-1 counts this yr; 40 of these pitches have been splitters. Batters are swinging at 52.5% of these splitters and 56.5% of the opposite stuff. This is simply an outrageously dangerous technique. The swings have been extremely unprofitable for batters. The takes have been extremely worthwhile. Cruz is barely throwing 30% of his pitches in these two counts within the strike zone — four-seamers and cutters additionally included. My daring technique proposal: Don’t swing in any respect in these counts till he adjusts.

The Diamondbacks roughly did this to Cruz on Monday. The three batters who walked solely swung once they have been forward within the depend or with two strikes. They didn’t let Cruz play his regular sport of getting within the driver’s seat and breaking off splitters again and again. His backup plan of fastballs and cutters isn’t horrible or something, however they’re common pitches, whereas his splitter is otherworldly. It’s a intelligent protection in opposition to a pitcher who is completely maxing out his skill to get outs.

At some level, there shall be an adjustment to the adjustment. If hitters are simply going to depart the bat on their shoulders in counts the place Cruz needs to throw splitters, he’ll have to start out mixing in more durable stuff. Honestly, I’m nonetheless sort of mystified that he’s been in a position to throw 70% splitters in 0-1 counts and get away with it; you simply don’t see numbers like that. If I have been a hitter, I'd even preserve the bat on my shoulders in two-strike counts. Sure, he would possibly land one for a strike, however it’s not like I might’ve made contact with it anyway. Besides, the most probably state of affairs is a pitch within the filth.

For now, that’s theoretical. Hitters are swinging out of their sneakers once they shouldn’t be. Cruz is getting away with it. Or, properly, he’s sort of getting away with it. He does have a 4.24 ERA on the season, although his FIP (2.07), xFIP (.206), and xERA (3.13) are all much better than that. The Reds appear to suppose he’s good; he’s pitching in huge spots, with the very best entry leverage on the crew. And if hitters don’t sensible as much as his sport, I feel he’ll proceed to achieve these conditions – he already has 9 shutdowns on the season, most on the crew.

Could all of it be an phantasm in the long run? Could hitters determine him out tomorrow? I suppose so, positive. But even when that’s the case — and I don’t suppose it's — what a fabulous story. Cruz performed in additional leagues than most baseball followers can title. He stored toiling, ready for an opportunity. And when he received that likelihood, he turned it into gold. Now he’s a wonderful main league reliever, and has top-of-the-line pitches in all of baseball. How cool is that?

OK, superb, one final bonus. Pederson struck out once more on a Cruz splitter Monday evening. His response tells you all it's essential to learn about what it’s wish to attempt to hit this silly pitch.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com