While trying again on the free agent signings I lined final winter, I observed a little bit of a sample. On the identical day Aaron Judge got here to phrases on a nine-year, $360 million take care of the Yankees, I wrote about Miguel Castro. On the identical day Brandon Nimmo agreed to a $162 million take care of the Mets, I wrote about Matt Strahm. On the identical day Yu Darvish and Bo Bichette signed contract extensions, I wrote about Pierce Johnson and Scott McGough. While the remainder of the baseball world was targeted on All-Stars and mega-million-dollar contracts, I discovered myself drawn to mid-tier relievers on small-scale offers.

We’re not farming for clicks right here at FanGraphs, and I’m grateful to write down for a web site the place I by no means should give you scorching takes or deceptive headlines. Thankfully, I’ve by no means been requested to write down about one bizarre trick for evading the posh tax or why dermatologists hate Gabe Kapler. Still, it’s good when others learn your work, and as a lot as I really like them, I do know center relievers don’t rack up pageviews like middle-of-the-order bats. While I've a weak spot for run-of-the-mill bullpen arms — the extra strange the higher — I do know I want to withstand the pull.

“Leo,” I stated to myself when the offseason started. “You can’t write about so many relievers this winter. You wrote about Joely Rodríguez last year. Maybe this time you cover Eduardo Rodriguez instead?”

Flash ahead to the ultimate day of the Winter Meetings, and I’m right here to write down about Luis García, Adam Cimber, and Michael Tonkin. Like the 2020 Phillies, you could possibly say I've a bullpen downside.

Late on Tuesday evening, García (the reliever, as if that wanted to be stated) signed a one-year, $4.25 million take care of the Angels. Shortly thereafter, within the wee hours of Wednesday morning, Tonkin agreed to a one-year break up contract with the Mets that can pay him a prorated portion of a $1 million annual wage for as a lot time as he spends on the MLB roster. Later that day, the Angels struck once more, signing Cimber to a one-year, $1.65 million deal.

After a six-year tenure with the Phillies, García bounced round between the Angels, Rangers, and Cardinals from 2019 to ’21 earlier than signing a two-year, $7 million take care of the Padres. In the primary 12 months of that contract, the right-hander put collectively what was arguably the perfect efficiency of his profession, pitching to a 3.39 ERA and a couple of.60 FIP in his highest-leverage function up to now. He recorded a career-high three saves, 19 holds, and 1.51 common leverage index (pLI) en path to a 1.6-WAR season, ninth amongst NL relievers. What’s extra, he solely appeared to get higher because the 12 months went on, growing his strikeout fee and inducing extra smooth contact. That sample continued into the playoffs, the place he struck out 5 batters in 4 appearances, with a mean exit velocity of 81.7 mph on 12 balls in play.

Unfortunately, the veteran couldn’t preserve that degree of success in his age-36 season. His strikeout fee dropped, his stroll fee rose, and though he continued to induce weak contact on the bottom, he gave up extra laborious pulled contact on balls within the air. García additionally misplaced velocity on his sinker and slider, his two major pitches, resulting in a drop in Stuff+ and botStf. Overall, his numbers had been completely acceptable — a 4.07 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 59.2 IP — however supervisor Bob Melvin clearly misplaced religion within the righty because the 12 months went on. He had a 1.46 common leverage index when getting into video games (gmLI) in April, however a 0.58 gmLI over the remainder of the season:

Luis García gmLI by Month

That’s to not say García didn’t pitch in any high-leverage spots. Although he completed with the sixth-lowest gmLI amongst certified NL relievers, he additionally completed with the Nineteenth-highest common leverage index when exiting video games (exLI). The 0.76 distinction between these two numbers is unusually excessive for a non-closer:

Top 8 Relievers by exLI-gmLI

Unlike the closers round him on that record, García sometimes entered video games in lower-leverage spots. As a non-closer, he additionally exited way more video games than any of them, giving his exLI a a lot bigger pattern measurement. In different phrases, no reliever in baseball reworked video games (or had video games remodel round him) fairly like García in 2023. That’s not essentially a superb or unhealthy factor; typically he elevated leverage by giving up runs, different instances by pitching a clear inning, and sometimes, the Padres’ offense elevated the leverage for him as he was sitting on the bench. Still, it’s a enjoyable truth. Although he was downgraded to a low-leverage reliever, García ended up pitching in some fairly thrilling spots.

Overall, nonetheless, his 2023 marketing campaign was about as unexceptional of a season as a reliever may probably put collectively: an ERA slightly below common, a FIP simply above, and a WAR that’s a rounding error away from zero. His $4.25 million assure is a wonderfully cheap quantity for a pitcher who can eat 60 innings in a season at that degree of efficiency. García isn’t going to repair an Angels bullpen that posted an AL-worst 6.14 ERA and 5.40 FIP over the ultimate two months of the 2023 season, however not less than he might help make up for the lack of Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, two of the one productive relievers who appeared for the Angels down the stretch.

In addition, the Angels additionally picked up an upside play in Cimber. The 33-year-old is just one season faraway from main the majors in appearances (with a 2.80 ERA, no much less) and comes on the low price and dedication of 1 12 months and $1.65 million.

Cimber was one of the crucial sturdy relievers within the recreation from 2018 to ’22. Only 4 pitchers made extra appearances in that point, and solely two — Adam Ottavino and Andrew Chafin — did so with a decrease ERA or FIP. While he bounced from San Diego to Cleveland to Miami within the early years of his profession, it was in Toronto the place the submariner actually broke out. Dealt to the Blue Jays mid-way by way of the 2021 season, he pitched to a 2.42 ERA and three.24 FIP in 108 innings over his first 12 months and a half with the membership.

Regrettably, Cimber’s 2023 season was largely misplaced to harm. Something appeared off proper out of the gate, and two stints on the injured record restricted him to twenty.2 innings, through which he posted a 7.40 ERA, a 7.46 FIP, and a meager 12.6% strikeout fee. His velocity was down on all three of his pitches (though his slider was a lot slower that it seemed like a complete new pitch, not simply the results of working by way of harm). He threw fewer strikes and induced fewer swings, but gave up extra balls in play. It definitely didn’t assist that so a lot of these balls in play had been hard-hit and pulled within the air.

On the one hand, I don’t need to learn too deeply into his numbers from 2023, given on a regular basis he spent on the IL. At the identical time, it’s removed from a assure that Cimber will regain his fastball velocity, which wasn’t so excessive to start with, and return to full well being in his mid-30s. If he can get again to his pre-injury kind, he can be a helpful asset to the Angels’ bullpen; Lord is aware of they want it. But if Perry Minasian actually desires to enhance one of many worst bullpens in baseball, his work is way from completed.

Speaking of horrible bullpens: Mets relievers posted a 5.20 ERA and 4.63 FIP post-trade deadline this previous season, and so they’ll be even worse off with out Ottavino and Trevor Gott. The return of Edwin Díaz will make an amazing distinction, however David Stearns nonetheless must fill out the bullpen round his star nearer. That’s the place Tonkin is available in. While he doesn’t have the innings-eater monitor file of García or Cimber, he threw 80 innings final season, fifth amongst all relievers. That will come in useful for a Mets staff in want of arms.

Tonkin spent the primary 5 seasons of his MLB profession with the Twins, the place he by no means made a lot of an impression, producing precisely 0.0 WAR in 141 video games. Finally, after his disappointing age-27 season in 2017, the Twins offered his contract to the Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB. While he wasn’t a lot of a substitute for Shohei Ohtani, who the Fighters misplaced to MLB that very same 12 months, the righty was a strong reliever in the course of the 2018 season, pitching to a 3.71 ERA in 53 video games and accumulating 12 saves. He selected to return again stateside in 2019, and he would spend the following a number of years bouncing round between the minor leagues, the Atlantic League, and the Mexican League earlier than lastly making his manner again to the majors with the Braves in 2023. He spent the complete season on the large league roster and served as supervisor Brian Snitker’s go-to lengthy man, ending second amongst NL relievers in innings pitched and recording greater than three outs in two-thirds of his appearances.

While his 4.28 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 0.1 WAR hardly stand out, particularly given the low-leverage spots through which he was deployed, each staff may use a near-replacement-level pitcher who can throw that many innings out of the bullpen. After all, there’s a motive Tonkin caught on the roster all 12 months for a Braves staff with a top-five bullpen within the NL. What’s extra, the pitch modeling knowledge underscores him as somebody to control subsequent season. PitchingBot was impressed along with his command, Stuff+ preferred his stuff, and each modeling programs had been excessive on his sinker, his major pitch.

The Angels and Mets had been two of the largest disappointments in baseball final season, but neither plans to rebuild or “reset” in 2024. Needless to say, none of those signings tackle the largest issues in Anaheim or Queens, however hopefully they’ll make these two bullpens a bit extra watchable subsequent season. As for what the Angels and Mets must do subsequent? Leave that to another person. I’ve obtained relievers to write down about.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com