Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/23

2:01 Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! Welcome to a different version of my weekly chat. Read more

2:03 Jay Jaffe: (I’ve reconsidered) Read more

2:05 Anthony: What the heck is occurring with Alek Manoah? He’s been brutal to this point after being nice final 12 months. Read more

2:08 Jay Jaffe: Good query. I haven’t seen a lot of him however I discover that his velocity is down a bit, and he’s getting hit very exhausting (7.43 xERA, woof). A fast take a look at his Stuff+ information reveals that the scores for each his fastball and slider have notably receded, (103 to 98 on the previous, 111 to 101 for the latter,), together with his general Stuff+ and Pitching+ (together with location) falling from 100 to 94. Velocity, form, motion, I’m undecided what’s up however I’d guess he’s bought some mechanical points to iron out. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0… Read more

2:09 Alex: Last September, you wrote a chunk about Juan Soto’s season-long hunch final 12 months. Evidently, it’s continued. His batting eye stays otherworldly, however his contact high quality hasn’t, and it’s exhausting to know what to do with that. Read more

2:12 Jay Jaffe: Actually, his high quality of contact appears to be all proper however he’s not getting the outcomes. 18.2% barrel fee is nice, .164 AVG in comparison with a .254 xAVG, .361 SLG in comparison with a .522 xSLG, .316 wOBA in comparison with a .400 xwOBA. He’s bought a really excessive pull fee (47.7%) and I feel he could also be a bit tousled on the psychological side of hitting, getting a bit pull-happy as he tries to compensate for Petco’s configuration. Read more

2:12 Jay Jaffe: There’s additionally this: Juan Soto remains to be having a tough time adjusting to the pitch clock. He particularly lamented there not being sufficient time popping out of the on-deck circle to get himself prepared and start plate appearances. “There’s no time at all. You can’t even play mind games anymore.” 17 Apr 2023 Read more

2:13 Jay Jaffe: He’s going to should determine it out of he needs that massive contract, however I’d fear way more if his precise and x-stats have been reversed Read more

2:13 Farhandrew Zaidman: How we feeling in regards to the Atlantic League check tube guidelines this 12 months? MLB will use the Atlantic League as its rule-change check lab once more. This 12 months’s guidelines: *Designated pinch runner. Can enter at any time, then return later. *A one-disengagement rule (it’s two in MLB). *The return of the Double Hook! If the starter exits early, so does the DH. 18 Apr 2023 Read more

2:15 Jay Jaffe: I don’t see the necessity for a one-disengagement check; two is an honest restrict that’s already boosted stolen bases 41% on a per-game foundation Read more

2:15 Jay Jaffe: I’d restrict the designated PR by attaching him both to a single participant for all the sport or to a one-time return of the man being pinch-run for. Read more

2:16 Jay Jaffe: I’m open-minded in regards to the double-hook Read more

2:17 Arizona: How are the Dbacks nonetheless beginning Bum over Pfaadt? Read more

2:20 Jay Jaffe: Man, i don’t know. If he actually was simply coping with fatigue then skip a flip. He’s dogmeat on the market; his Stuff+ is simply 86 and his Location+ is down kind 99 lat 12 months to 93 this 12 months. The beatings will proceed whether or not or not morale improves; it’s the fastball and curve that need assistance. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0… Read more

2:22 Jay Jaffe: By the way in which, anyone requested about getting Stuff+ onto particular person participant pages. It’s one thing we’re wanting into. In the meantime, you’ll discover that for the hyperlinks to Bumgarner and Manoah, I’ve created customized one-player pages to simply examine 2021, ’22 and ’23 at a look. Read more

2:22 Ben: Ok, Jorge Mateo isn’t going to hit .350 and lead the majors in WAR however together with his protection and base operating, if he’s was a .260/.310/.460 hitter he’s in all probability a prime 5 short-stop–how a lot of that is for actual? Read more

2:27 Jay Jaffe: it’s a bit early to say how a lot of it's for actual however in every single place I look on his web page, from chase fee, zone-contact fee and swinging strike fee to strikeout and stroll charges, to statcast numbers I see enhancements all over — if not numbers that help his present stage. Note his .297 xBA and .493 xSLG, these can be a lot good if he can keep them. I word that he’s hitting a ton of groundballs, which doesn’t work for everybody however whenever you’ve bought 99th percentile pace it’s one other story. He does appear to be value a more in-depth look. Read more

2:31 Austin: Jeffrey Springs was killing it for my fantasy squad. Do we all know when he’ll be again? Read more

2:32 Jay Jaffe: gah, what a bummer. based mostly on what I’m studying (er, skimming) I’d guess it may very well be no less than two months, perhaps three or 4 Read more

2:33 Anthony: It’s November ’23 and we're wanting again on the Dodgers saves by reliever breakdown. What does that appear to be? Read more

2:34 Jay Jaffe: Woof, I simply seemed they usually’ve bought three saves to this point, two from Evan Phillips and one three-inning job from Andre Jackson. I’d guess we wind up with Phillips and Graterol in double digits and Miller with just a few. Not gonna be lots as a result of 90 wins ain’t taking place and I’m beginning to marvel about 81. Read more

2:34 Tony Two Bags: Why do individuals suppose Rendon is washed? He’s hitting more durable than he ever has, is making extra contact than he ever has, isn’t a groundball machine, and his plate self-discipline has been elite to date. I’m undecided what I’m lacking Read more

2:38 Jay Jaffe: In the age of social media, you’ll all the time have some edgelords treating the burial of a participant as a aggressive sport and others who let their feelings over a participant wrecking their fantasy staff three years in the past take over. It’s foolish. Now, would anyone who informed us we have been fools for believing Jarred Kelenic had a future please tape an enormous “Kick Me!” signal to their butts? I received’t really kick you… Read more

2:38 Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Salt Lake City? I don’t suppose I’ve ever heard it talked about earlier than as a possible MLB metropolis. Is there a “there” there? Read more

2:39 Jay Jaffe: I wrote 2,500 phrases about it, take a look. Read more

2:39 Jay Jaffe: briefly, a possible bid has some issues to suggest it and maybe distinguish it from different opponents, however one virtually unfathomably massive problem looms Read more

2:39 Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Lol I didn’t even see you had simply written about SLC. Oops. Read more

2:40 Jay Jaffe: truthful sufficient Read more

2:40 Brandon Belt: ought to I be involved?