“Dr. Neal ElAttrache” is up there on the checklist of three-word phrases you don’t wish to see close to a pitcher’s title. Not fairly as dangerous as “Federal grand jury,” “Devoured by wolverines,” or “Drafted by Colorado,” however up there. Tampa Bay Rays ace Shane McClanahan visited the estimable orthopedic surgeon on Monday to get a good left forearm checked out, and the outcomes have been to not his liking. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported Tuesday afternoon that McClanahan is “highly unlikely” to return this season, within the phrases of Rays supervisor Kevin Cash.

Over Tampa Bay’s most up-to-date run of success, the Rays have set nice retailer by their pitching, and extra just lately by their rotation, which ranks third within the majors in WAR. But that success has come amidst a sweeps-week Grey’s Anatomy particular within the medical division. McClanahan would be the greatest loss but, as he leads Rays starters in innings and was one of many crew’s All-Star representatives final month. The query, as at all times, is whether or not Tampa Bay can dangle on, and what “hanging on” appears to be like like for a membership that’s already headed backwards.

The Rays have been so good early this 12 months we took them without any consideration. At the top of June, they have been on a 109-win tempo with a fair higher run differential, and no one within the American League their match. On the morning of July 1, the Rays have been 6 1/2 video games up on their nearest AL competitors; since then, they’re 12-18, which is only a recreation forward of the A’s. The Rays at the moment are two video games behind the Orioles; their odds of successful the division (and by extension, clinching a bye) have been minimize in half over the previous 38 days.

Tampa Bay’s decline has been complete over that span; via June 30, the Rays had a crew wRC+ of 126, which put clear daylight between them and the second-best offense in baseball. The Rays additionally led the league in baserunning runs via that time. Since July 1, the Rays are twenty first in wRC+ and tenth in baserunning. So this isn’t nearly accidents within the rotation. But it’s not not about accidents within the rotation both.

I’m going to fudge the timeline right here somewhat bit — it’s not like all the Rays rotation got here down with bum elbows suddenly after which the crew obtained swamped by the Orioles. But pitching depth is an idea that compounds itself both in abundance or in absence; no one understands that connection higher than the Rays, who've been rotating starters on and off the IL since this run of playoff appearances started:

Rays Starters on the IL, 2019-22

The Rays have been capable of make it work due to their skill to scout, develop, and in any other case conjure depth. President of baseball ops Erik Neander loves a midseason commerce that brings in a contemporary arm, and naturally the crew that popularized the opener has discovered artistic methods to fill innings.

But prior to now 12 months, the Rays have misplaced mainly a complete elite beginning rotation to some harm or different:

Currently Injured Rays Starters

That doesn’t embrace Brendan McKay, the previous no. 4 total choose who hasn’t pitched within the majors since 2019, and since then has thrown simply 28 skilled innings at any degree as he’s suffered shoulder points, thoracic outlet syndrome, and most just lately a torn UCL. It additionally doesn’t embrace Glasnow, who missed a begin with a again downside however ought to return this week, or Zach Eflin, who had an harm scare two weeks in the past; an MRI on his knee got here again clear.

If each main league starter the Rays had have been wholesome, I don’t know if this may be the very best rotation in baseball, however you’d no less than have to think about the chance. With McClanahan on the shelf indefinitely, Cash shall be praying that Glasnow and Eflin can proceed to eat huge innings (removed from a certain factor for both pitcher all through their careers), and that new acquisition Aaron Civale continues to maintain the ball within the yard.

Even then, that’s solely three-fifths of a rotation at greatest. The subsequent man up might be Taj Bradley, who has the makings of Tampa Bay’s subsequent ace however got here down with a nasty case of dingeritis across the identical time the Rays’ season typically began to go south:

Taj Bradley Before and After Dingeritis

Bradley is at the moment in Triple-A getting straightened out, however McClanahan’s harm may rob him and the Rays of that luxurious. The different minor league starter at the moment on Tampa Bay’s 40-man roster is Cooper Criswell, a giant, soft-tossing right-hander with a bizarre crossfire supply. Criswell has been OK in restricted huge league motion this 12 months (seven multi-inning aid appearances totaling 25 innings, with 24 strikeouts, 14 earned runs and — bizarrely — 4 hit batters), however I doubt Cash desires to begin him in a must-win playoff recreation.

If McClanahan had gotten damage two weeks in the past, Neander would’ve had time to make one other commerce to shore up the rotation. Probably not a like-for-like swap, given the large reported asking worth across the likes of Dylan Cease, however somebody who may have given the Rays one other eight or 9 high quality begins from now till the top of the season. Now, that chance has come and gone.

On the opposite hand, placing it that method — “eight or nine quality starts” — looks like one thing the Rays, these irrepressible scroungers of innings, can fudge with the arms already within the group. Still, it’s one other unwelcome impediment for a crew that should begin climbing up the standings, however must arrest its slide first.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com