No hitter within the majors has gotten off to a warmer begin this season than Adam Duvall, who joined the Red Sox this previous winter through free company and is at the moment carrying a slugging share above 1.000. Unfortunately, the 34-year-old middle fielder gained’t be obtainable to star in Small Sample Theater for awhile as a result of on Sunday whereas diving for a ball, he fractured his left wrist.

Duvall injured himself trying to catch a bloop off the bat of the Tigers’ Spencer Torkelson within the ninth inning of Sunday’s recreation. Charging in from middle area, he slid and appeared to make the seize, however his glove hand hit the grass awkwardly as he rolled over, and the ball squirted unfastened. Torkelson was credited with a single, whereas Duvall got here up clutching his wrist, the identical one which he sprained final July 23 whereas taking part in for the Braves. That time, he jammed his wrist in opposition to the wall in pursuit of a Shohei Ohtani fly ball and wanted season-ending surgical procedure to restore a torn tendon sheath.

This time, Duvall was recognized with a distal radius fracture in his left wrist. Such accidents usually imply a lack of six to eight weeks, however the Red Sox haven’t introduced a timeline. Duvall underwent extra testing to find out if he would wish surgical procedure to set the fracture or restore tissue injury, however supervisor Alex Cora advised reporters after Monday’s loss to the Rays that he’ll keep away from that.

Even with out want for surgical procedure, the damage has interrupted a promising begin to the season for Duvall, who signed a one-year, $7 million cope with the Red Sox in late January. After bashing 38 homers, driving in an NL-high 113 runs, and profitable a Gold Glove and a World Series ring whereas splitting his season between the Marlins and Braves in 2021, Duvall sank to 12 house runs and 36 RBIs final yr; he dropped from a 103 wRC+ (.228/.281/.491) and a pair of.7 WAR to an 87 wRC+ (.213/.276/.401) and 1.0 WAR, taking part in in simply 86 video games. This yr, he’s been unstoppable, highlighted by an April 1 recreation in opposition to the Orioles by which he collected a double, a triple, and two homers. He’s had two different three-hit video games by which he collected a number of extra-base hits, one in opposition to the Orioles on April 2 and the opposite in opposition to the Tigers on Saturday.

Overall, Duvall has hit .455/.514/1.030, main the majors in slugging share and wRC+ (318), sharing the AL leads in homers (4, tied with Rafael Devers, Wander Franco, Aaron Judge, and Luis Robert Jr.) and WAR (1.0, tied with Matt Chapman), and rating second within the AL in batting common and third in on-base share. Those are all ridiculous numbers which have every part to do with their small pattern dimension, besides, it’s not that usually you see a participant with a four-digit slugging share for any substantial stretch. Last yr, for instance, 13 gamers had a complete of 46 stretches (most of them overlapping) by which they slugged 1.030 or higher over the course of an eight-game span with at the very least 35 PA (Duvall has 37). More than half of these gamers have gained MVP awards within the current previous (Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Judge, Ohtani, and Mike Trout) and the remaining (Yordan Alvarez, Bo Bichette, Rhys Hoskins, José Ramírez, Corey Seager, and Trevor Story) are not any slouches both. Winding up in that form of firm, even fleetingly, is fairly spectacular.

Duvall had been hitting the ball very laborious. Though his 88.9 mph common exit velocity is unremarkable, his 25% barrel price is absurd, greater than double his profession price of 11.9%, and his 46.4% hard-hit price is about seven factors above his profession mark. Mind you, that is solely primarily based on 28 batted balls, a little bit greater than midway to the 50 batted balls it takes for barrel price to stabilize, so it’s not as if we will make any grand proclamations, but it surely’s a bummer that we’ll have to attend a few months to see the extent to which Duvall might enhance upon his earlier physique of labor.

That’s true as nicely for his strikeout price. Duvall’s contact points are not any secret; in his three seasons with at the very least 502 plate appearances (sufficient to qualify for the batting title in a 162-game season), he’s struck out at the very least 160 instances, with a excessive of 174 in 2021, and he owns a 28.3% profession strikeout price, the fifth-highest amongst lively gamers with at the very least 3,000 PA. Yet so far this season, he’s struck out simply 5 instances, for a 13.5% price, that whereas strolling 10.8% of the time; the previous is lower than half his profession strikeout price, the latter precisely double his profession stroll price. Meanwhile, his 25.6% chase price is about 10 factors beneath his profession norm, and his 6.6% swinging strike price greater than six factors beneath his norm — notable knowledge factors that underscore his diminished strikeout price:

Given that strikeout charges stabilize round 60 PA, we’re simply rubbernecking at some fascinating and possibly unsustainable extremes, however any advance on this space can be a helpful complement to Duvall’s mixture of energy and defensive prowess. Speaking of unsustainable, Duvall is hitting a exceptional .474/.524/.895 within the 19 PA by which he’s reached two strikes (the entire movies within the above reel are two-strike hits). Check out his two-strike warmth map:

Anyway, now we and the Red Sox have to attend to see what Duvall does with this compelling begin, that whereas hoping that the wrist damage doesn’t have any lingering results on his swing. As to how the Red Sox (now 5-5) will deal with issues, they plan to cowl middle area utilizing some mixture of righties Rob Refsnyder and Enrique Hernández and lefty Raimel Tapia. The 32-year-old Refsnyder, who obtained the beginning on Monday night time in opposition to Rays opener Jalen Beeks (adopted by one other lefty, Josh Fleming), loved a pleasant little breakout final yr with Boston, the sixth crew of his eight-year main league odyssey; he hit .307/.384/.497 (146 wRC+) with six homers in 177 PA, although to date he’s simply 3-for-15 with 4 walks to begin the season. Hernández, who slumped to .222/.291/.338 (75 wRC+) final yr after a powerful 2021 efficiency with the Red Sox, has simply three hits in 38 PA to date for a nearly-unfathomable .097/.263/.290 line. Tapia hit a skinny .265/.292/.380 (90 wRC+) with the Blue Jays final yr and owns a profession 81 wRC+ even with this yr’s 3-for-7 begin off the bench. Here’s a have a look at this bunch’s platoon splits:

Red Sox Center Fielder Platoon Splits 2020-23

In Duvall’s absence, that group goes to take its lumps in opposition to righties, and if Hernández is taking part in middle, the query turns into who’s manning shortstop provided that he’s began 9 out of the crew’s 10 video games there as Story recovers from UCL inner brace surgical procedure. Yu Chang, who has the one different begin there, hit .208/.289/.315 (78 wRC+) whereas spending time with 4 groups final yr, and that wRC+ is three factors above his profession mark. The crew has recalled righty-swinging infielder Bobby Dalbec from Triple-A Worcester to take Duvall’s roster spot, selecting him over lefty-swinging outfielder Jarren Duran as a result of Cora expects the crew to face a string of lefty starters:

Cora talked about this postgame and it is truly nuts:

Probables upcoming:Joey Wentz (L) (right this moment)Matthew Boyd (L)Josh Fleming (L)Shane McClanahan (L)Zach Eflin (R)Jeffrey Springs (L)Patrick Sandoval (L)Tyler Anderson (L)Reid Detmers (L)José Suarez (L)

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) April 8, 2023

Dalbec hit for a 151 wRC+ in 92 PA as a rookie in 2020, however the returns have diminished enormously since then, as you'll be able to in all probability surmise provided that he started his age-28 season in Triple-A; final yr, he batted simply .215/.283/.369 (80 wRC+) whereas hanging out in 33.4% of his 353 PA. Originally a 3rd baseman whose path to common taking part in time was blocked by Devers after which a primary baseman serving as a bridge to Triston Casas, he’s been working to develop his defensive repertoire, taking part in a pair video games at shortstop at Worcester this yr after doing so 3 times (for a complete of 14 innings) for the Red Sox in 2020-21. He’s not going to exchange Hernández, not to mention Story, however he does personal a profession 129 wRC+ in 331 PA in opposition to lefties, so he might present some short-term assist.

Thanks in no small half to Duvall, the Red Sox rank third within the AL in scoring (5.90 runs per recreation) and seventh in wRC+ (109), and whereas the middle fielder was unlikely to proceed his torrid tempo, even his baseline manufacturing gained’t be simply changed. Already the Red Sox discover themselves sharing the AL East basement with the Orioles, 5 video games behind the scorching Rays (10-0). So lengthy as Duvall is out, their highway to competition gained’t be any simpler.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com