The Wagner Group’s presence extends from the traditional battlegrounds of Syria to the deserts of sub-Saharan Africa, projecting the Kremlin’s world affect with mercenaries accused of utilizing brutal drive and taking advantage of seized mineral riches.

But that was below Yevgeny Prigozhin, who in what might have been his ultimate recruitment video, appeared in navy fatigues and held an assault rifle from an unidentified dry and dusty plain as he boasted that Wagner was “making Russia even greater on all continents and Africa even more free.”

A personal jet carrying Prigozhin and his high lieutenants crashed northwest of Moscow on Wednesday, two months after he led an armed riot that challenged the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin. There is extensive hypothesis that the mercenary chief, who's presumed lifeless, was focused for assassination due to his rebellion, though the Kremlin has denied involvement.

The crash has raised questions on the way forward for Prigozhin’s personal military, which fought alongside Russian troops in Ukraine earlier than his temporary rebellion in opposition to navy leaders in Moscow.

Russian authorities have cited the necessity to await DNA check outcomes to substantiate Prigozhin’s dying, however Putin expressed condolences after the jet fell from the sky. The Russian chief additionally has ordered Wagner fighters to signal an oath of allegiance to the Russian state, in accordance with a decree revealed on the Kremlin’s web site late Friday and efficient instantly.

The order adopted the Kremlin’s denial Friday of strategies from Western officers and information media that the Wagner chief might have been killed on Putin’s orders.

In African nations the place Wagner offered safety in opposition to extremist organisations like al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, officers and commentators predicted Russia would doubtless keep a presence, inserting the mercenaries below new management.

Others, nonetheless, say Prigozhin constructed deep, private connections that Moscow may discover difficult to switch shortly.

Africa is vitally essential to Russia - economically and politically.

This summer season, Wagner helped safe a nationwide referendum within the Central African Republic that cemented presidential energy; it's a key companion for Mali’s military in battling armed rebels; and it contacted the navy junta in Niger that wishes its providers following a coup.

Expanding ties and undercutting Western affect in Africa is a high precedence because the Kremlin seeks new allies amid its warfare in Ukraine, the place Wagner forces additionally helped win a key battle. Africa’s 54 nations are the most important voting bloc on the U.N., and Moscow has actively labored to rally their help for its invasion.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., stated Friday that Wagner’s forces “are destabilizing, and we’ve encouraged countries in Africa to condemn their presence as well as their actions.”

The Republican Front within the Central African Republic, which is allied with the nation’s ruling occasion, on Thursday reiterated its help for Russia and Wagner, saying they have been “determined to fight alongside the African people as they struggle for self-determination.”

Wagner forces have served as private bodyguards for President Faustin Archange Touadera, defending the capital of Bangui from insurgent threats and serving to Touadera win the July 30 constitutional referendum that would prolong his energy indefinitely.

Central African activist and blogger Christian Aime Ndotah stated the nation’s cooperation with Russia can be unaffected by new management at Wagner, which has been “well-established” within the nation for years.

But some within the Central African Republic denounce the mercenaries, and the U.N. peacekeeping mission there criticized them in 2021 for human rights abuses.

“A state’s security is its sovereignty. You can’t entrust the security of a state to a group of mercenaries,” stated Jean Serge Bokassa, former public safety minister.

Nathalia Dukhan, a senior investigator at The Sentry, a coverage group primarily based in Washington, predicted the Kremlin would attempt to carry Africa nearer into its orbit.

“Wagner has been a successful tool for Russia to expand its influence efficiently and brutally,” she stated. “In the midst of all the turmoil between Putin and Prigozhin, the Wagner operation in Central Africa only deepened, with increased direct involvement by the Russian government.”

High-ranking Wagner operatives have constructed relationships in Mali and the Central African Republic and perceive the terrain, stated Lou Osborn of All Eyes on Wagner, a undertaking specializing in the group.

“They have a good reputation, which they can sell to another Russian contender. It wouldn’t be surprising if a new organization took them over,” Osborn stated, noting that Russian navy contractors in Ukraine, equivalent to Redut and Convoy, have just lately expressed a want to do enterprise in Africa.

Redut was created by the Russian Defense Ministry, which had sought to place Wagner below its management. Following the June mutiny, Putin stated the mercenaries may signal contracts with the ministry and maintain serving below one of many group’s high commanders, Andrei Troshev. It wasn’t clear what number of troops accepted, however media experiences put the quantity at just a few thousand.

The Kremlin nonetheless may face challenges in preserving the robust presence in Africa that Prigozhin helped set up.

Former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov stated Prigozhin might have been allowed to proceed his post-activities as a result of Russian authorities needed to discover individuals who would take over his work.

“Time was needed to create the new channels, new mechanisms of control over those projects,” he stated. “And it’s not a fact that they have been successful in that. It’s possible that they have failed and the Kremlin may lose some of those projects.”

Britain’s Defense Ministry stated Prigozhin’s demise “would almost certainly have a deeply destabilizing effect on the Wagner Group.”

“His personal attributes of hyper-activity, exceptional audacity, a drive for results and extreme brutality permeated Wagner and are unlikely to be matched by any successor,” it stated.

On Friday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to touch upon Wagner’s future.

For Prigozhin, who based Wagner in 2014, its missions weren’t merely about advancing Russia’s world clout. His contractors in Syria, Libya, Sudan and elsewhere tapped the mineral and power wealth of these nations to counterpoint himself.

Central African Republic lawmaker and opposition chief Martin Ziguélé stated Wagner was energetic in gold mining, timber and different industries - with out paying taxes.

“We can only conclude that it’s plundering,” he stated.

Prigozhin reached a cope with Putin after the riot that noticed Wagner mercenaries transfer to Belarus in change for amnesty and spoke repeatedly since then about increasing his actions in Africa. He was seen courting African officers at a latest summit in St. Petersburg.

He shortly welcomed final month’s navy coup that toppled Niger President Mohamed Bazoum. The junta reached out to Wagner, however the group’s response was unclear. There’s been no seen presence of Russian mercenaries within the West African nation to this point, apart from crowds waving Russian and Wagner flags at demonstrations in help of the coup.

While U.S. officers didn’t verify that Russia or Wagner had any function in Bazoum’s ouster, there are fears the Kremlin may exploit it to weaken Western positions in West Africa, the place Wagner mercenaries already are energetic in Mali and have a suspected presence in Burkina Faso.

Some individuals in Niger assume Prigozhin’s presumed dying received’t cease Russia from attempting to increase its affect.

“Our belief is that Russia wants to get a base here and to be popular. It’s obvious they want to be here,” Baraou Souleimanin, a tailor in Niamey, Niger’s capital, informed The Associated Press. Since the coup, he stated he’s sewn greater than 150 Russian flags in a month.

“We pray that Allah strengthens the relationship with (Wagner) to continue the deal. If the relationship is good and strong, it’s possible they’ll continue with the deal even after his death,” he stated Thursday.

In neighboring Mali, a navy junta that seized energy in 2020 expelled French troops, diplomats, and media, and ordered an finish to a decade-long U.N. peacekeeping mission.

Though not formally acknowledged by Malian authorities, Wagner forces have been identified to function within the rural north, the place insurgent and extremist teams have eroded state energy and tormented communities.

Human Rights Watch says Mali’s military, along with suspected Wagner mercenaries, dedicated abstract executions, looting, compelled disappearances and different abuses.

“What we have experienced through Wagner is the massacre of our people,” stated Ali Nouhoum Diallo, former president of the nationwide meeting.

Timbuktu resident Youba Khalifa stated Wagner’s presence in Mali wouldn’t change with out Prigozhin as a result of “they’re going to replace him with another leader.”

Although Prigozhin had informed his troops in Belarus their new mission can be in Africa, a number of thousand of them skilled the Belarusian military close to the Polish border, prompting Warsaw to bolster forces there. There have been indicators, nonetheless, the mercenaries have been getting ready to drag again to Russia.

Belarusian Hajun, a gaggle monitoring Russian troops in Belarus, stated Thursday that satellite tv for pc photographs confirmed greater than a 3rd of the tents at a Wagner camp have been dismantled, an indication of a potential exodus. Still, President Alexander Lukashenko insisted his nation will host about 10,000 troops.

That attracts robust objections from the Belarusian opposition, which calls for their withdrawal.

“Prigozhin’s death should put an end to Wagner’s presence in Belarus, which will reduce the threat for our country and its neighbors,” exiled opposition chief Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya informed the AP.

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Sam Mednick in Niamey, Niger; Zane Irwin in Dakar, Senegal; Jean Fernand Koena in Bangui, Central African Republic; Edith M. Lederer on the United Nations; Baba Ahmed in Bamako, Mali; and Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia, contributed.

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