Among different issues, we at FanGraphs are identified for our projections, particularly right now of yr. We prefer to assume that’s as a result of our projection techniques are good! But it’s price remembering that projections all the time embody uncertainly. ZiPS, for instance, displays a spread of projected outcomes based mostly on one million simulations of the approaching season, with the primary percentile representing the worst projected efficiency and the 99th percentile, one of the best. The numbers you see on our participant pages replicate the fiftieth percentile projection — the median projected end result — for every participant.

For me, the enjoyable begins when the projections are dwell, as a result of I take advantage of them as a place to begin to start my very own evaluation utilizing knowledge factors that aren't folded into the participant projections, similar to video and bat monitoring data. I like utilizing these instruments as a result of they permit me to see whether or not a participant has a basis in place that might assist him exceed his median projection. For this piece, I need to deal with gamers’ potential ceilings, which I'll outline as their ninetieth percentile projection, in order that we will keep throughout the realm of chance. (Theoretically, a participant may hit 80 dwelling runs this season, which might absolutely be his peak efficiency, however that's so extraordinarily unlikely to occur that it's not price contemplating right here.) From the mannequin’s perspective, all gamers’ ninetieth percentile outcomes are equally probably; my evaluation is extra subjective. I'll use extra data to strengthen confidence {that a} participant can certainly attain his ceiling.

The objective right here was to take a look at gamers who've numerous uncertainty of their projections, on account of a risky profile, an unproven observe file, or each. From there, I settled on a gaggle of three inherently dangerous gamers who've particular traits that I believe ought to result in a right away enchancment. With that stated, let’s get began:

Adolis García 2024 ZiPS Projections

I’ve introduced Adolis García’s 2023 efficiency to offer a comparability to his 2024 projections. Going into final season, García’s fiftieth percentile OPS+ and WAR have been 103 and a pair of.0, respectively, which means that his precise manufacturing significantly exceeded his median projection. In response to this, ZiPS is extra assured in García getting into this season, whilst his profile stays risky.

Is it potential for him to get much more out of his bat this season? I believe so. In phrases of plate self-discipline and swing selections, García made a major stride ahead in 2023. However, his projections anticipate his BB/Okay ratio to regress from his .37 mark final season and be nearer to his 2022 stage of .22. Using Robert Orr’s SEAGER metric, which calculates a mix of selectivity and strategic aggression, García scored a 19.4% final yr. That was within the 88th percentile of hitters, an enchancment from being barely above common in 2022.

García barely improved his Hittable Pitch Take%, whereas concurrently growing his Selectivity% by almost 5 share factors. Yes, that helped him draw extra walks than was anticipated of him, however it additionally allowed him to crush 39 homers. García is following an intuitive path to plate self-discipline enchancment. After posting backside decile whiff and chase charges in 2021 and 2022, he considerably reduce down on his chasing final yr. Now that he has confirmed to own a greater understanding of the strike zone, the following step is to cease whiffing as a lot. His mechanics are environment friendly, his plate protection is nice, and he has already proven a knack for enchancment. That’s a darn good recipe for a participant trying to get probably the most out of his abilities.

García’s case is a bit easier than the 2 gamers we’ll focus on subsequent. Let’s transfer onto one other proficient outfielder:

Riley Greene 2024 ZiPS Projections

I’m a Riley Greene believer. My expectations for him final yr have been increased than the place his efficiency fell, however he additionally had two unlikely accidents that might clarify his underwhelming season. In May, he had a stress fracture in his fibula that induced him to overlook simply over a month. Then, after trying unbelievable in his return, he tore his UCL in his non-throwing arm. It was a weird little bit of luck for a participant trying to show himself as a cornerstone piece in Detroit. His projections for 2024 replicate a large internet of uncertainty in his offensive profile, but in addition a excessive ceiling as a result of he boasts nice hitting abilities and is barely getting into his age-23 season.

Greene hits the snot out of the ball. His xwOBACON of .477 was within the high 4% of the league. His skill to govern his posture to get to completely different pitch heights permits him to have nice plate protection. His common 40.4-degree Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) – the angle of the barrel relative to the bottom at impression – is among the many steepest within the majors, and he combines it with a path that all the time works up and thru the baseball. As a outcome, he has a super launch-angle distribution and constantly flush batted-ball spin. Here are a number of movies of him protecting pitches all around the strike zone:

Velocity up? Check. Slow and away? Check. Back foot breaker? Check. His swing is so versatile due to how he modifies his torso tilt whereas nonetheless sustaining upward angles on his swings. He is able to attending to absolutely anything, which is why he was so good in opposition to breaking balls on the season, with with a .366 xwOBA in opposition to them that ranked 18th amongst 260 hitters who noticed at the very least 400 such pitches in 2023. His proficient barrel and physique variabilities are the precise abilities I’m on the lookout for when betting on a participant to hit his ceiling, particularly if the hitter impacts the ball like Greene does. With well being and higher managed aggression, Greene will put himself in an important place to hit his ninetieth percentile end result. A 151 OPS+ can be a significant step up from the 117 he posted final yr, however at instances, he has already flashed that stage of dominance. The closing piece of the puzzle is consistency.

Now, let’s consider an thrilling younger catcher trying to show his 2023 season was no fluke:

Bo Naylor 2024 ZiPS Projections

Bo Naylor hit his tail off final yr to the tune of a 124 wRC+. In a Guardians lineup that didn’t have a lot past José Ramírez and older brother Josh Naylor, Bo emerged as one of many staff’s high offensive contributors from the second he cemented himself as the first catcher. His nice efficiency, albeit in restricted time, is mirrored in his ceiling, whereas his ground is predicated on his lack of a observe file within the majors.

It’s a very good signal each time a younger catcher has such a strong fiftieth percentile projection, although in Naylor’s case, the expectation is that his energy will drop off. That is affordable when you think about his .232 ISO final yr would’ve been third amongst catchers with at the very least 300 plate appearances, even supposing his 30.8% hard-hit price would’ve ranked 235th among the many 258 certified hitters, based on Baseball Savant. On high of that, Naylor outpaced his anticipated statistics by fairly a large margin. His .347 wOBA was significantly increased than his .309 xwOBA and his .379 xSLG was far off from his .470 mark. But wait a minute — we all know that there's generally extra to uncover once we see discrepancies like this. Is Naylor a kind of instances?

Of the 406 gamers final yr who had at the very least 100 batted balls, Naylor ranked 18th in Pulled FB% (sourced from Orr’s leaderboards once more). If Naylor is without doubt one of the higher gamers within the recreation at pulling fly balls constantly, then he ought to be capable to outperform his anticipated statistics once more in 2024. Does he have the swing mechanics and path to maintain up this tempo? Naylor, a left-handed batter, is often hitting with the platoon benefit, making it simpler for him to create the Horizontal Bat Angles (HBA) required to tug these pitches constantly. Matchups with righty pitchers are perfect for lefty hitters with pulled fly ball approaches. Here are a number of clips that present him executing that swing on completely different pitches:

Naylor goes to be challenged to hit pitches away from his physique to the pull facet, but when he can maintain that entrance facet locked like he did in these swings, he could possibly sustain his pull facet success regardless of the dearth of uncooked energy. In these swings, he confirmed that he can activate 99 mph warmth, but in addition that he can keep disciplined sufficient to attend on an 88 mph changeup. Given what we find out about his endurance and plate self-discipline, Naylor is the kind of participant who ought to be capable to match his swing selections along with his swing strengths. That’s an vital talent that might assist him construct upon his spectacular debut.

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