Are you, or have you ever ever been, ready to make choices about main league crew personnel? Do you want buying and selling? Have you ever held a dime and wished it had been two nickels, or vice versa? If so, keep the place you're, stay calm, and Jerry Dipoto shall be calling you quickly to make some offers. Like this one:
MLB righties Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa together with prospects OF Gabriel Gonzalez and RHP Darren Bowen is the 4 participant return for Polanco, per sources. Believe money can also be concerned. https://t.co/GQDKtwaogh
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) January 30, 2024
Prospects! Relievers! Reclamation tasks! Everyday regulars! This one has just a little little bit of every little thing. But it’s extra sophisticated than that, as a result of it’s not your normal offseason commerce, the place one crew is downgrading to search for the long run whereas the opposite builds for right this moment. Both of those groups have playoff hopes this yr, they usually’re every utilizing this commerce to enhance their possibilities. It’s a bizarre one.
See, this commerce helps the Mariners get good – or at the very least higher. Before making this deal, they had been planning on heading into 2024 with Josh Rojas and Luis Urías protecting second and third base between them. I’m as massive of an Urías fan as you’ll discover, however that’s too little protection. Rojas was dangerous final yr, and Urías was worse. Sure, they each picked it up after altering groups mid-season, however we’re speaking ugly stats – a 78 and 83 wRC+, respectively. Our projection methods suppose Urías will get better to round league common, however they’re much less optimistic about Rojas; he’s extra of a platoon piece.
Plugging Jorge Polanco into the combination makes every little thing work so much higher. Now there are three guys for 2 spots, which provides the crew loads of choices. Rojas can relaxation in opposition to lefties, Polanco can spell J.P. Crawford at quick with somebody filling in for him at second, and Dylan Moore can get into the combination as nicely when he’s not enjoying the outfield. If you possibly can’t get famous person infielders, getting a pleasant massive mixture of choices is a strong plan B.
To be clear, Polanco isn’t a famous person. He’s a first-division common, a second baseman with above-average offense because of some sneaky energy. He launched 14 homers in half a season final yr, although he’s usually extra doubles than bombs. Defensively, he’s just a little under common at second, although I’m stunned by how negatively Statcast grades him (–16 Outs Above Average over the past three seasons) and suppose he’s higher than the numbers there. (DRS agrees with me.) I believe the Depth Charts projection appears to be like proper over a full season: 2.9 WAR in 602 plate appearances. The one draw back? Polanco has logged a mixed 788 plate appearances over the past two years.
Still, the M’s have backups on the prepared. Losing a month’s value of Polanco manufacturing is much less of a ache when you possibly can plug in Urías or Rojas as an alternative of a minor leaguer. Also, Seattle gave up little or no by way of projected 2024 manufacturing to get Polanco – a swingman who would solely crack the rotation if issues went improper and a medium-leverage reliever. This is a clear manner so as to add wins immediately.
Sure, getting Polanco is good, however you possibly can’t have a look at this deal in a vacuum. Before the Mariners acquired him, they wanted so as to add somebody to play second or third as a result of they beforehand had traded away a distinct model of Polanco — third baseman Eugenio Suárez. Like Polanco, Suárez has been a significantly better offensive participant than the Rojas/Urías duo. They flipped Suárez for backup catcher Seby Zavala and reliever Carlos Vargas; in doing so, they saved roughly $13 million {dollars}. Then they picked up Urías in alternate for a probably good reliever (Isaiah Campbell) and paid him $5 million. The web deal: plus one Urías, minus one Suárez, plus one backup catcher, and $8 million in financial savings.
The Robbie Ray commerce with the Giants that landed Anthony DeSclafani in Seattle furthers the massive combinatorial muddle of the Mariners’ offers. As Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes reported, they are going to cowl an mixture $8 million of DeScalfani’s $12 million deal – the $6 million that San Francisco was already protecting plus $2 million of their very own. Justin Topa is incomes a bit greater than the foremost league minimal. Polanco, then again, will make $10.5 million this yr earlier than he has the choice to achieve free company. That means the Mariners added roughly $6 million in 2024 wage on this commerce – they’ll save $500,000 by changing Topa with somebody making the league minimal and $4 million by not paying DeSclafani, then pay Polanco $10.5 for a web acquire of $6 million.
The up to date commerce tree appears to be like like this: minus Suárez, plus Polanco and Urías, minus one reliever (minus Topa and Campbell, plus Vargas), plus one backup catcher, plus $2 million in financial savings… and minus two prospects. For 2024, I believe that’s inarguably successful, even when it’s a finicky and trade-heavy method to obtain it. I’d clearly take Urías and Polanco over Suárez; I like every of them about as a lot as him on their very own. Backup catchers and relievers are roughly equal in worth. The Mariners appear to be actually good at working with relievers to enhance them, too, so I wouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into how the 2 guys they traded produced in 2023, or the one they added, for that matter. The $2 million in financial savings is nothing to sneeze at; that might fund a rework of proprietor John Stanton’s workplace (I’ve been watching plenty of Love It or List It not too long ago) or possibly be put again into the crew.
Right, however the prospects! Wondering about their long-term worth, I did what everybody does on this scenario: obtained detailed notes from Eric Longenhagen about them. Wait, you guys don’t do that? You’re actually lacking out. Here’s Gabriel Gonzalez, the extra extremely regarded of the 2:
I’ve tended to be just a little decrease than the consensus on 20-year-old outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez as a result of he’s a bodily mature nook outfielder with 30-grade plate self-discipline. Gonzalez had a 55% swing charge and 37% chase charge in 2023. He loved the Cal League hitting surroundings to the tune of a 150 wRC+ previous to a promotion to High-A Everett, after which his efficiency got here crashing all the way down to Earth. Up till then he had crushed the decrease minors regardless of these underlying points, which make his profile a prospect Jenga tower. Gonzalez isn't with out benefit as a prospect; he has good in-zone really feel for contact and above-average exit velocities for his age. Because he’s a stocky man I’m not inclined to challenge a ton on his uncooked energy (108 mph max exit velo in 2023, good for a 19-year-old however under MLB common). He’s going to must preserve raking as he climbs to be an impression common. It’s extra doubtless he turns right into a Harold Ramírez sort of position participant.
That’s not a really thrilling report. We’re decrease on him than plenty of the opposite prospecting shops, however for what it’s value (not very a lot, maybe), I’m with Eric on this one. If I’m getting a bat-only prospect, I’d choose louder pop, extra projectability, or a extra discerning eye on the plate. That’s to not say he 100% received’t pan out, however regardless of the torrid numbers in A-Ball, he’s nonetheless a challenge. A 40+ grade sounds about proper to me; he’ll slot in at thirteenth on our Twins checklist.
As befits my hipster tendencies, I like Darren Bowen extra, though he's a much less thrilling prospect. Again, Eric:
Bowen was a Division-II draftee out of UNC Pembroke who had a powerful professional debut as an old-for-A-ball starter at Modesto, the place he had a 3.88 ERA in 15 begins. He started the season working only a couple innings at a time with a fastball that was averaging 95 mph. As he was stretched out throughout the remainder of the season, he would typically work as many as 5 or 6 innings, and his fastball velocity fell into the 91-94 mph vary on common, although when he executes his fastball to the highest of the strike zone, it has a really shallow angle that’s laborious to hit, even at 92 mph. Bowen’s upper-70s slider has big pure motion and could possibly be a premium weapon if his command and general consistency enhance. Either his mid-80s cutter or changeup has to enhance if he's going to have the repertoire depth to start out. I’m not normally inclined to challenge closely on the changeups of pitchers whose arm swings are this lengthy, but it surely’s common for small faculty prospects like Bowen to develop considerably upon receiving professional instruction for some time. He can also be so lanky and such a clean on-mound operator that it’s believable he might find yourself throwing more durable deeper into his 20s. He’s a superb developmental beginning pitching prospect who might need simply been scratching the floor in 2023.
Thirteenth-round picks who stroll 11% of batters in A-ball at 22 normally don’t pan out. Let’s not go loopy simply but. But I purchase Eric’s level about small faculty pitchers having lower-hanging fruit obtainable for improvement groups, and Bowen’s uncooked stuff is intriguing. There are loads of flat-plane fastball guys who stay within the decrease 90s, notably if they've a number of helpful secondaries to go together with it. Dart throws like this normally don’t work out, however if you happen to can take 10 of them, one will in all probability hit. There’s plenty of probabilistic pondering concerned in working a farm system, and Bowen is the correct of man to bulk up your odds.
Are both of those guys integral to Seattle’s future? Definitely not. The most probably final result is that neither will ever be a serious league common. But that’s simply how the prospect sport works. In getting Polanco, the Mariners’ future obtained just a little bit worse in expectation, and their capability to swing related trades went down considerably. I truly suppose it’s an affordable alternate, however the Mariners might need been in a position to do higher in the event that they had been just a little extra versatile in what they had been prepared to simply accept in return for a number of attention-grabbing prospects.
It’s enjoyable to have a look at every little thing from Seattle’s perspective as a result of they’ve been on a commerce bonanza this offseason. I obtained to make a house renovation joke in there, too. What’s to not love? But the Twins have had an attention-grabbing offseason of their very own, and this commerce simply continues to muddle the combination. On the floor, buying and selling Polanco doesn’t harm their 2024 possibilities a lot. Edouard Julien will deal with second, with Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer offering backup protection. Top prospect Brooks Lee is already in Triple-A and may debut within the majors this yr; he’s blocked from shortstop by Carlos Correa, so he’ll play second and boot Julien to a extra becoming defensive residence.
If every little thing goes proper, in actual fact, the crew may hardly miss Polanco. A cascade of youthful choices might totally replicate his worth. But there’s a reasonably clear drawback with that: plenty of issues must go proper for Polanco to be rendered pointless. It’s not clear that Julien can deal with second base full-time. Sure, Lee is in Triple-A, however he batted .237/.304/.428 there, and it’s no assure that he’ll be a mean hitter within the bigs immediately, and even ever. Injuries matter, too; subtract one in all these guys from the combination attributable to damage and one other attributable to underperformance, and the Twins could possibly be taking a look at a reasonably naked cabinet after they’re excited about successful the AL Central.
If it weren’t for DeSclafani and Topa, I’d hate this commerce for them (nicely, clearly). But though they’re buying and selling a strong common in the course of a aggressive cycle, I believe they obtained sufficient in return that the deal works. They inarguably want pitching. The again of their rotation is filled with “yeah, maybe” varieties. Chris Paddack seemed nice final yr – in precisely 14.2 innings of labor throughout 4 ranges. Louie Varland seemed like the true deal in Triple-A, however obtained hit laborious in his second chew on the main league apple. Bailey Ober – OK, I like Ober fairly a bit in actual fact, so I’m not gonna say something imply about him, however my level is that the Twins have each a skinny and dangerous rotation.
DeSclafani offers them an insurance coverage coverage of kinds. I wouldn’t count on him to be obtainable all yr, as a result of he’s had his fair proportion of accidents, however 15-20 begins and a little bit of aid work will elevate Minnesota’s flooring significantly.
Likewise, I’m undecided what they’ll get out of Topa, but it surely’ll in all probability be higher than whoever he’s changing. The Twins aid corps closed final yr on hearth – however they did so with plenty of assist from Paddack and Varland. Their bullpen is good on the again finish, with Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar all good choices. But it will get skinny rapidly after that, and Topa suits properly into that hole.
Is Topa nearly as good as his 2023 numbers (2.61 ERA in 69 innings)? Almost assuredly not. He had the sort of residence run luck you not often see, allowed the bottom BABIP of his profession, and walked virtually nobody. Betting on some regression is prudent. I do like his new cutter, which provides him extra utility in opposition to opposite-handed batters (40% utilization in opposition to lefties, 6% in opposition to righties), however I've him down as a 3.75-4.00 ERA sort of man, not a lights-out stopper.
Overall, I believe DeSclafani and Topa enhance Minnesota’s possibilities of making the playoffs. In the identical manner that shedding Polanco challenges its offensive depth, including two possible choices to the pitching employees alleviates some points there.
As a bonus, the Twins are simply as budget-constrained because the Mariners, so saving a tiny bit of cash actually helps. GM Derek Falvey advised Hayes that he deliberate to place the price financial savings from this deal again into the roster. Sure, it’s solely $6 million, however if you happen to’re simply in search of some offensive depth, $6 million goes a great distance. Sign a utility infielder of some sort, and even an outfielder that frees Castro from his duties there, and you'll in all probability make this entire factor near a wash on offense contemplating what number of good hitters Minnesota needed to squeeze right into a nine-man lineup final yr.
I’m giving the Mariners a standalone C- however a contingent B+. They traded so much to get Polanco — the going charge for prospects like Gonzalez and Bowen is a bit greater than this — however they didn’t have a lot of a alternative as a result of their trade-spree offseason had left them too gentle on offense. They badly wanted a first-division common, they usually didn’t hand over any 2024 fairness to get one. Will this commerce harm them down the road? I imply, possibly. But I believe they’re proper to stay for the now, even when the price is just a little eye-watering.
The Twins simply get a straight A. They had been within the place of not getting that a lot marginal worth out of Polanco as a result of they only so occurred to have a pile of viable second basemen ready behind him. They additionally wanted pitching depth, way more so than your common playoff contender. The apparent transfer was to deal Polanco for pitching assist or wage aid, they usually did each. Getting two attention-grabbing prospects within the combine is a big bonus. 10/10, would commerce once more.
Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com
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