Clayton Kershaw didn’t want his 2 hundredth profession win to burnish his Hall of Fame credentials, however on Tuesday evening at Dodger Stadium, in his first begin with the milestone inside attain, he secured it in sensible style. In an outing bookended by his pitching out of jams, Kershaw tossed seven scoreless innings in opposition to the Mets, a staff he has totally dominated all through his profession.

In securing the milestone, Kershaw joined Justin Verlander (244 wins), Zack Greinke (223), and Max Scherzer (203) amongst energetic pitchers, and Hall of Famers Don Sutton and Don Drysdale as those that gained at the least their first 200 video games as Dodgers. He grew to become the 121st pitcher in main league historical past to achieve the plateau, and simply the thirteenth to take action completely with one staff:

200+ wins, 1 staff.

Clayton Kershaw simply joined an unique listing. pic.twitter.com/yCZYTsEgPw

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) April 19, 2023

Before we go additional, it’s time for the same old caveat about pitcher wins: Regular readers know that I usually keep away from dwelling upon the stat, as a result of on this more and more specialised period, they owe as a lot to enough offensive, defensive, and bullpen assist as they do to a pitcher’s personal efficiency. While one doesn’t must know what number of wins a pitcher amassed in a season or a profession to understand his true worth — and single-season totals particularly might be wildly deceptive — these totals do have an effect on the favored perceptions of their careers and nonetheless carry a sure cachet amongst gamers.

If you wanted proof of that final level, notice the uncommon present of on-field emotion from Kershaw after ending his evening by hanging out Tommy Pham with two on within the seventh inning:

Chills. pic.twitter.com/WYNLZBtKhX

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 19, 2023

Note additionally that the Dodgers held a champagne toast in honor of the ace lefty after the sport, although for Kershaw, this was all about teammates, previous and current. Via The Athletic:

“The goal is to win,” he stated. “That’s why tonight is absolutely cool. Because it’s a staff stat, a win. So for me to have the ability to do this 200 instances, is only a product of being on some nice groups. That’s why I actually like tonight and that’s fairly cool.

“As far as reflecting, I’m not the greatest at that, either. But being able to think back about the different groups of guys that I’ve played with, the different division titles that we’ve won, the different regular seasons and all these things, to be able to have this many wins is just a byproduct of all those people that I got to play with. Once again, thankful to be part of this organization, really. That’s all tonight comes down to.”

On Tuesday evening, the 35-year-old southpaw — belief me, these of us who bear in mind him at 19, introducing Vin Scully and the remainder of us to Public Enemy Number One, are notably alarmed at his age — nearly instantly needed to decide up considered one of his teammates. Brandon Nimmo scorched his fourth pitch of the sport 102.5 mph to proper area, the place a backpedaling Jason Heyward gloved the ball however didn’t catch it earlier than falling over. Nimmo sped to 3rd on the error, however Kershaw stranded him there by hanging out Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso, the primary two on large curveballs and the final on a foul-tipped fastball. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening.

Facing Tylor Megill, the Dodgers rapidly rewarded Kershaw with a two-run cushion by a Freddie Freeman single and a J.D. Martinez homer; he added a solo shot within the third inning. Staked to that 3–0 lead, Kershaw cruised, permitting only one baserunner from the second by sixth innings on a one-out single by Lindor within the fourth. He didn’t want greater than 13 pitches in any of these innings and entered the seventh with a pitch depend of simply 73.

From that time, issues acquired tougher. Kershaw hadn’t gone to a single three-ball depend over his first six innings, however he did so thrice in opposition to the 5 batters he confronted within the seventh; of the 33 foul balls the Mets hit off him, 11 of them occurred in that body. He wanted 9 pitches to strike out Lindor for a second time, whiffing him with a excessive slider. While he got here again to strike out Alonso on simply three pitches, capped by one other slider, Mark Canha fought him off for 13 pitches — together with seven fouls in a row as soon as the depend went full — earlier than blooping a single into proper area.

Jeff McNeil adopted with a first-pitch single to convey the tying run to the plate within the type of Pham. Kershaw fell behind 2–0 earlier than battling to a full depend, then completed his 105-pitch outing by getting Pham to chase a slider on the backside of the zone. It was his ninth strikeout of the evening and a couple of,833rd for his profession, shifting him previous Mickey Lolich for twenty second all-time. The second referred to as for some celebration and catharsis:

For the evening, Kershaw netted 19 whiffs, 12 through the slider and 5 through the curve; the Mets chased 18 of the 33 breaking balls he threw outdoors the zone. He allowed simply 4 hard-hit balls all evening, three by Nimmo, however none of them had been barreled. Only on that first-inning error did a Met attain base on a hard-hit ball. Classic Kershaw.

The outing was his strongest of the season, surpassing his first begin in opposition to the Diamondbacks on April 1, when he allowed only one run in six innings and struck out 9. He entered Tuesday evening’s sport with an uncharacteristically excessive 3.75 ERA and 4.44 FIP, however lowered these numbers to 2.52 and three.39, respectively. He remained undefeated in opposition to the Mets for his regular-season profession, operating his file to 11–0 with a 2.03 ERA and a couple of.74 FIP (the Mets did beat him within the 2015 Division Series opener).

Now in his sixteenth main league season, Kershaw is on his second one-year contract in a row, having frolicked after the 2021 and ’22 seasons assessing whether or not or not he had the need to maintain enjoying and the need to return to the Dodgers. Fortunately, he’s answered that affirmatively each instances, sustaining a philosophy that hints that he gained’t stick round only for the sake of pitching into his 40s: “Commit what you can commit to fully.”

There’s little doubt Kershaw can nonetheless do what he does at a excessive stage. While he made simply 22 begins for the second yr in a row in 2022, touchdown on the injured listing twice attributable to again accidents — the sixth and seventh instances that’s been the case up to now 9 seasons — he posted a 2.28 ERA and a couple of.57 FIP, his lowest full-season marks since 2016. He made the NL All-Star staff for the primary time since 2019, began his first All-Star Game (at Dodger Stadium, no much less), and twice threw seven good innings, one thing no different pitcher had executed within the post-1960 enlargement period.

Had he determined to hold up his spikes after final yr, Kershaw would have fallen in need of each 200 wins and three,000 strikeouts (he completed final season with 2,807), however with an MVP award, three Cy Young awards, 9 All-Star choices, a World Series ring, and the no. 23 rating amongst beginning pitchers in S-JAWS, he’d have sailed into Cooperstown on the 2028 poll with ease nonetheless. In doing so, he would have change into simply the second postwar beginning pitcher with fewer than 200 wins to get elected after — you guessed it — Sandy Koufax, the yardstick in opposition to whom he’s inevitably measured. Koufax gained 165 video games in his 12-year profession (1955–66).

As for 200, it’s an more and more uncommon milestone, largely attributable to all the traits towards decreased pitcher workloads that I’ve documented on this house over time. Since Verlander’s 2 hundredth win in 2018, solely three pitchers have retired having achieved the mark: CC Sabathia (251), Bartolo Colon (247), and Jon Lester (200). Adam Wainwright, who’s sitting on 195 wins as he works his approach again from a groin damage, ought to get there this season.

As for who’s subsequent, it's possible you'll wish to make your self comfy, as a result of it’s going to be awhile. To that finish, I requested Dan Szymborski to provide me with the ZiPS odds for energetic pitchers in relation to reaching the foremost wins milestones — not simply 200, but in addition 150, 250, and 300.

Active Pitchers’ Chances at Career Wins Milestones

When Dan ran the same question in 2018, Kershaw had a 31% probability at 300, Verlander 29%, Greinke 21%, and Scherzer 16%. Wainwright, who had been restricted to eight begins that yr attributable to ongoing elbow irritation within the wake of surgical procedure the earlier fall, was given only a 5% probability of reaching 200 wins; Sale (80%) and Rick Porcello (73%) had been nearly certain issues on the extent of Kershaw (83%). Roughly talking, ZiPS estimated on the time that the then-current crop of pitchers would yield two 300-game winners, eight 250-game winners, and 16 200-game winners, figures that we each agreed felt on the excessive facet. “[T]he ZiPS machine isn’t sensitive enough to this current moment in decreasing workloads to be as pessimistic as I am, and rewiring it on a moment’s notice to suit my perceptions wasn’t an option,” I wrote.

While the returns aren’t completely full, that pessimism proved to be well-founded, not solely attributable to decreased workloads but in addition accidents (the Tommy John surgical procedures of Verlander, Sale, and Cueto, Hamels’ litany of shoulder issues, Stephen Strasburg’s bodily collapse, and so forth) in addition to the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, which in response to Dan “cost every top starter 8–12 wins or so.” Via his numbers, the anticipated yield for all present pitchers is 0.4 300-game winners (and solely a 21% probability that anybody energetic apart from Kershaw reaches that plateau), 3.1 250-game winners, and 10.3 200-game winners.

Looking on the desk above, which I’ve sorted by odds of reaching 200 wins, although you are able to do so by any of the columns, a number of issues stick out. Of the 18 pitchers who haven’t reached 200, solely one of many 4 apart from Wainwright who's at the least midway there has greater than a 12% probability of creating it: Cole. Meanwhile, Urías is the one different pitcher with higher than a coinflip’s probability of reaching 200. The 12 pitchers whose odds of reaching 200 vary from 10% to 89% common 29 years in age however simply 65.6 wins, lower than one-third of what’s wanted; the heavy lifting continues to be to come back. The distinction between the 2 pitchers tied at 134 wins — simply previous two-thirds of the way in which there — is especially jarring; Cole, a perennial Cy Young contender, has odds about 4 and a half instances higher than Bumgarner, who’s being despatched to the hill each 5 days based mostly on his wage and previous glory greater than his current capabilities.

All of which ought to make Kershaw’s achievement stand out much more. Two hundred wins is in no way the very best measure of his success; for that we are able to level to his Twenty eighth-ranked fWAR (73.9) and Twenty ninth-ranked bWAR (76.6), his through-age-35 rankings in each (tenth in fWAR, sixteenth in bWAR), or his S-JAWS and strikeout rankings. He’s one of many all-time greats, and maybe his technology’s finest. Particularly provided that we don’t know the way for much longer he’ll hold doing this, we should always take each alternative to savor his accomplishments.

Content Source: blogs.fangraphs.com