ABUJA, Nigeria — Regional mediation efforts to reverse the coup in Niger and restore its democracy collapsed as quickly as they began. Tensions have escalated because the Sunday deadline nears for attainable army intervention by different West African nations.
As its assembly ended Friday in neighboring Nigeria‘s capital, Abuja, the region’s protection chiefs finalized a plan to make use of pressure towards the Niger junta – needing approval by their political leaders – if Mohamed Bazoum will not be reinstated as Niger’s president. An Economic Community of West African States delegation to Niger, led by Nigeria‘s former head of state Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar, had tried unsuccessfully to fulfill with the coup chief, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who later declared that any aggression towards Niger “will see an immediate response and without warning.”
What began as an overthrow of the president by his closest commanders within the Presidential Guard has obtained the help of another troopers, together with the Nigerien military command.
Here’s what to anticipate:
This could be the primary time in years that the regional bloc referred to as ECOWAS would attempt to forcefully put down a coup in West Africa, which has seen a number of profitable coups since 2020.
“The events of the last two days make it more likely that this (military) intervention may actually happen,” mentioned Nathaniel Powell, Africa analyst on the Oxford Analytica geopolitical intelligence agency. “And if they offer resistance to an ECOWAS intervention, this can turn out to be really catastrophic.”
ECOWAS could be doing in order a break up household, with three different regimes – Mali and Burkina Faso, which border Niger, and Guinea – selecting to aspect with the junta.
Niger‘s other neighbors include Chad, whose leader has tried to mediate between the coup plotters and ECOWAS, and Algeria and Libya, which are not members of the bloc. This leaves any military intervention through land largely restricted to Nigeria’s 1,600-km (1,000-mile) border with Niger.
It’s not but clear what the technique of army intervention in land-locked Niger would appear to be, however the nation enjoys some territorial benefit. With Bazoum being held within the capital, Niamey, the main target will begin there.
With a inhabitants of 25 million, Niger is West Africa’s second-largest nation when it comes to landmass, spanning over 1.26 million sq. kilometers (486,000 sq. miles) – 100 occasions greater than that of Gambia, the place ECOWAS final intervened militarily in 2017.
On the frontline of efforts to reverse the coup in Niger is its longtime ally Nigeria, which at present holds the chairmanship of ECOWAS.
Nigeria has West Africa’s largest army power of 223,000 personnel – 22 occasions that of Niger’s 10,000, in accordance with World Bank Open Data, and 4 occasions that of Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea and Niger mixed.
In Niger, some consider the army intervention would possibly contain airstrikes. But with Bazoum nonetheless in detention, he could possibly be each a bargaining instrument and a defend for the junta.
An intervention pressure coming overland from Nigeria must cross a swath of largely unoccupied land that hosts greater than 200,000 refugees who’ve fled violence in northern Nigeria, additional complicating any army deployment.
Niger‘s worldwide airport in Niamey is simply 12 kilometers (7 miles) from the presidential palace the place Bazoum is being held, which might make it harder to be overtaken. The nation has two different worldwide airports, together with one in Agadez, the place the U.S. army operates a drone base.
The newest army takeover amid a resurgence of coups in West Africa has been notably regarding for the West, which noticed Niger as its final remaining strategic companion in its counterterrorism battle within the Sahel. Niger additionally issues to the worldwide market on numerous fronts, together with its 5% share of the worldwide provide of uranium.
Nnamdi Obasi, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group, warned {that a} army intervention “could also deteriorate into a conflict by proxy between forces outside Africa, between those supporting the restoration of democracy and those supporting the junta, which has taken a strong anti-Western stance.”
On one finish is Niger’s longtime strategic allies the United States and France. On the opposite is Russia and its personal army contractor, Wagner, which have been hailed as allies by the army regimes of Mali and Burkina Faso.
There are fears that any battle within the occasion of a army intervention by ECOWAS won’t be restricted to Niger‘s capital, Niamey.
“I fear the junta would gladly use its own people as cannon fodder or human shields, and ECOWAS militaries don’t have a good record when it comes to avoiding collateral damage,” mentioned James Barnett, a researcher specializing in West Africa at Hudson Institute.
Even the best-case state of affairs from such an intervention would go away ECOWAS troops stationed within the nation as anti-coup forces for what could possibly be a prolonged interval. That doesn’t look good for democracy – each for the nation and the area, mentioned Powell with Oxford Analytica.
“That would make Bazoum look like he is only a president because of foreign armies, and that is going to destroy his legitimacy.”
Nigeria main the ECOWAS intervention in Niger might face challenges on the homefront, the place its army has struggled with overstretched, outgunned and outnumbered personnel, combating armed teams which have killed 1000’s previously 12 months throughout the northern and central areas.
“Nigerian military has internal problems in Nigeria,” mentioned Bello Tangaza, a resident of Tangaza in northern Sokoto state. “They have bandits, they have Boko Haram – but they have failed to tackle these problems and they want to jump to Niger.”
A army intervention led by Nigeria might shift consideration from the armed teams that typically enter the nation by means of the porous border with Niger. Four folks have been kidnapped by gunmen on Wednesday in Tangaza district, and residents concern the state of affairs gained’t enhance anytime quickly if the army turns its consideration to Niger.
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