Sergei Shoigu and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s whereabouts unclear in absence of any clear path from Vladimir Putin

The mud is settling. The injury is deep. And the query stays, particularly within the absence of any clear path from Vladimir Putin – what occurs subsequent?

Expect the Kremlin to ship a bit extra of the “business as usual”, “nothing to see here” Putin diary appointment movies.

Russia-Ukraine newest: Wagner boss Prigozhin’s whereabouts unknown as rival seen for first time

We have video of the defence minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a Western command ahead working base apparently within the “special military operation zone”, supposedly this morning, although Telegram chatter is busily debating whether or not it was filmed earlier than the coup occurred.

And Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was presumably informed in no unsure phrases to maintain his head down in Belarus in the meanwhile, even when he isn’t the kind who likes to maintain quiet for lengthy.

So what’s going to occur to the highest navy command, who’ve simply weathered weeks of criticism and a short-lived however harmful armed revolt?

How a lot credibility do they nonetheless have within the eyes of their males when hundreds if not lots of of hundreds serving within the Russian armed forces will need to have watched these Prigozhin movies and felt a number of dwelling truths?

Prigozhin was good at taking the facet of his troops, mentioning the pointlessness of the entire Ukraine train, raging towards the hideous and pointless lack of life.

That should imply a very good deal should you’re sitting on the frontlines questioning should you’re subsequent.

Read extra:
On the streets of Moscow, folks appear shaken up by Wagner Group revolt
What does the aborted Russian mutiny imply for the conflict in Ukraine?

Putin famously favours loyalty and Shoigu and his chief of the overall employees Valery Gerasimov have been nothing however loyal.

The commander-in-chief may even not need to look as if he has been pressured to bow to strain, particularly not from Prigozhin who he has simply denounced as a traitor.

But there’s now hypothesis that he’s casting round for alternate options.

Governor of the Tula area, Alexei Dyumin, is a type of talked about as a potential Shoigu successor.

If there’s a reshuffling, then it’ll in all probability occur as soon as the mud has settled.

Click to subscribe to the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts

It was additionally obvious from the entire contracts debacle that Shoigu – and subsequently Putin – will need to have determined that the Ukraine conflict might and may now solely be dealt with by the ministry of defence and that every one different freelance items, Wagner being probably the most outstanding, needs to be included into the fold.

That was a sign that Shoigu was on the up.

It was in all probability additionally the rationale why Prigozhin determined to probability it, demanding Wagner be seen on an equal however separate footing to the Russian armed forces. Folie de grandeur, maybe.

So if Putin replaces Shoigu now, he appears to be like weaker nonetheless.

Though I’ll end with the caveat, given Saturday’s lightning occasions, that every one is unpredictable and stays so, regardless of the obvious calm of the final 24 hours.