What does the COP28 deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels really imply?

The newest UN local weather change convention in Dubai has seen nearly 200 international locations decide to “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for the primary time.

COP28 negotiators have described it as a “historic” and a “landmark” deal for world efforts to achieve internet zero by 2050.

But many local weather scientists are questioning the influence it’ll have, with others sceptical in regards to the COP course of on the whole.

Here Sky News appears at what the deal means globally, for the UK and for you.

Fossil fuels, internet zero and carbon seize

Despite being extensively used, a number of the key phrases utilized in COP agreements such because the one struck in Dubai can really feel ambiguous.

• Fossil fuels, resembling coal, oil and pure gasoline, type naturally from lifeless crops and animals within the Earth’s crust. They include hydrocarbon and will be extracted and burned as gasoline for warmth and electrical energy.

• Fossil gasoline subsidies are outlined as any motion by a authorities to decrease the price of fossil gasoline manufacturing or costs for power shoppers. In 2022 the International Monetary Fund estimated they had been value 7.1% of worldwide GDP, the equal of $7trn (£5.6trn).

• Net zero is achieved when world greenhouse emissions stability out what we take away from the environment. It’s not the identical as ‘carbon impartial’, a label usually utilized by companies to indicate a concerted discount in carbon emissions and offsetting these they do produce.

• Carbon seize makes use of know-how to lure carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and retailer it underground to keep away from any dangerous impact to the surroundings.

• ‘Unabated fossil fuels’ confer with these the place no try has been made to scale back their emissions by means of strategies resembling carbon seize and storage.

What does ‘transitioning away’ imply – aren’t we doing it already?

There was agonising debate over the phrasing of the settlement’s clause on fossil fuels, with “transitioning away” ultimately chosen over “phase out” or “phase down”.

It implies that renewable power will enhance and be step by step substituted for fossil fuels throughout all world power techniques, in line with Professor David Reay, professional in carbon administration on the University of Edinburgh and co-chair of the Just Transition Commission.

He tells Sky News that not like “phase out” there isn’t a decided finish level to a “transition”, with the language chosen to cater for international locations nonetheless closely reliant on fossil fuels with out the financial means to adapt as shortly as others.

Professor Ilan Kelman, an professional in disasters and well being at University College London, provides that almost all international locations, together with the UK and the US, have been “transitioning away from fossil fuels” for many years.

“This is simply the international community saying we agree that we are transitioning and will continue to transition.

“But what does it imply? Not lots except we act on it. It’s simply authorized terminology. We’ve had comparable wording in agreements earlier than that have not been acted on.”

At COP26 in Glasgow, “section out” was used for a clause on coal, but this year it has arguably been diluted to “section down” and “unabated coal”, which implies coal production can continue.

Professor Kelman adds: “It’s actually as much as governments, corporations, non-profits and people to enact it and guarantee they go ahead with it.”

Read extra:
What Lego can inform us about COP28
Analysis: COP ‘historic – however for fallacious causes’
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Is COP legally binding?

COP locations no authorized obligation on its signatories to satisfy the phrases of its agreements.

In response, international locations are anticipated to replace their very own local weather change laws and ‘nationally decided contributions (NDCs)’, drawn up as a part of the 2015 Paris local weather settlement, accordingly.

Professor Reay says this yr’s COP settlement is “really important to set the stage” as new NDCs are at present being devised forward of the following set of targets in 2025.

“By the time we get to COP in Brazil in 2025, we’ve got a possibility of a major closing of the gap in terms of what nations are committing to do and how that adds up to limiting warming close to 1.5C,” he says.

Professor Kelman is extra sceptical, saying the dearth of accountability and enforcement for international locations who fall behind on their guarantees makes the method “meaningless”.

What does it imply for me?

If the near-200 international locations signed as much as COP28 honour the thought of “transitioning away” from fossil fuels, fewer corporations are prone to put money into them, Professor Reay says.

This implies that at a shopper stage, renewable alternate options like electrical automobiles and warmth pumps will grow to be extra commonplace – making it simpler for us to make inexperienced decisions, he provides.

But Professor Kelman argues that whereas COP reinforces the necessity to cut back our electrical energy consumption, it’s “up to governments local through to national to enact the legislation so people are not hurt” by local weather initiatives.

“COP processes and these agreements don’t really have much of an impact on individuals,” he says.

“But as individuals, if we want cheaper electricity, to breathe cleaner air, and for our taxes not to go towards subsidising fossil fuels we have to tell our politicians we want those things.”

How does the UK stand?

The UK Climate Change Act was handed in 2008 and has been up to date recurrently by successive governments in line with world warming estimates and COP agreements.

Like most international locations, it has all the time had the aim of contributing to internet zero by 2050.

But earlier this yr, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was closely criticised for delaying the ban on new petrol and diesel automobiles, weakening targets to section out gasoline boilers, and issuing new gasoline and oil drilling licences within the North Sea.

While Professor Kelman describes the unique UK local weather laws as “world leading”, he says the brand new North Sea licences are the “antithesis” of local weather targets and the transition to a inexperienced financial system.

Professor Reay chairs the Just Transition Commission, which advocates for progressive long-term sustainability methods that don’t come at a price to people.

He warns that the UK authorities is utilizing the idea of a ‘simply transition’ as an “excuse to go slower on climate action”.

“We’re losing climate leadership not just morally, but it will also damage us economically if we carry on this line of essentially hiding from climate action,” he says.

Is COP28 sturdy sufficient for internet zero by 2050?

Net zero targets rely first on whether or not international locations adhere to the settlement, but additionally on how internet zero is outlined and calculated, Professor Kelman says.

“There are climate experts who say that net zero is so ambiguous and vague that it doesn’t mean much.

“So there’s an opportunity that international locations may not meet their goal or they will calculate it in such a approach that does not assist in extensively lowering all greenhouse gases.”

But although we are “approach off” the Paris target of limiting warming to 1.5C by the end of the century – instead on track for 3C – Professor Reay still believes COP28 “will get us nearer” to net zero 2050 goals.

“This will present a context for nations to ramp up their ambitions and transfer us nearer,” he provides.